Behind The Bet 4.26

Each week, Behind The Bet gives the entire OWS Fam three player props from the OWS Props team, along with the numbers and thinking behind each play, plus your chance to win a FREE week of OWS Props in One Prop Season. First, a look back at how Week 3 went before we get to the Week 4 card.

How Week 3 Went

A small loss on our straight bets this week that could, and probably should, have been a much better result. We’re essentially even through three weeks, with more narrow losses than wins we’ve managed to sneak out. As primarily under bettors, the final drive or two has been particularly tough on us, but those breaks swing both ways over a season. Each week, we learn a little more about these teams and how they want to play. Let’s get there this week!

Projection Plays: 21–26 | −8.5 Units | −15.5% ROI

Another tough week for our projection bets leaves us with one hot week and two disappointing ones at higher volume. We’ll trim the card over the next couple of weeks and tighten our thresholds as games continue to be higher-scoring than expected. It’s encouraging that our human touch has helped us outperform the broader projections, but the focus remains in getting that larger sample back on track in Week 4.

One Prop Season: 24–39

Our OPS Fam struggled in Week 3 after a great start through 2 weeks. The community went 24–39 in Week 3, leaving just 1 member with 3 wins through three weeks. On the season OPS is 62–68.

We have been excited about the amount of people that have joined the challenge, continue to submit throughout the season for your chance to win a prop pass in 2027!

Three Bets We Like in Week 4

Chris Bell (MIA) OVER 2.5 Receptions

Sportsbook Prices + Playable Range+106 DK, +105 CZ, +104 FD, good to -110

Market movedPosted +106 DKNow -115 DK

Bell saw a downturn in routes in Week 2 blowout to SF as they don’t want to overwork him too quickly when it’s not necessary. In Week 3, with Caleb Douglas out, Bell jumped to a 72% snap share and saw 8 targets, going 4-67. With Douglas out again this week, expect Bell to see more work against a Vikings defense that funnels 65% of its targets to WR (rest of league: 54%)

Chase Brown (CIN) UNDER 64.5 Rushing Yards

Sportsbook Prices + Playable Range-112 DK; 63.5 -114 FD is preferred to -125 CZ as 1 yard isn’t worth 11 cents of juice

Line movedPosted U64.5 (-112 DK)Now U60.5 (-113)

Did you know that the Jaguars have gone 20 straight games not allowing a 75-yard rusher? That streak is tied for the fourth-longest streak in the last 50 years. So far in 2026 the stingy Jags Rush Defense is 5th in rush DVOA, while allowing less than a 36% rushing success rate. We’ve seen top rushers in each game of only 33, 39, and 23 yards. They’re also bottom 10 in explosive run rate (7%), where Brown has been ice cold. He has the most touches in the NFL (59) without a 20+ yard run. He’s also bottom half of the league in stuffed rate (runs stopped at or behind the line) at around 20%. So without explosives against a tough defense, volume is the only question. And after allowing Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers to turn back the clock a decade last week, the Bengals now get the wagon that is Liam Coen’s Jags offense. We expect the Bengals to have to keep up, and the path of least resistance isn’t likely on the ground. The Bengals are also more than happy to feature Brown in the pass game in the right matchup.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) UNDER 6.5 Rushing Attempts

Sportsbook Prices + Playable Range-113 DK, -128 CZ, good to -130

Line movedPosted U6.5 (-113 DK)Now U5.5 (+103)

Lamar is at 7, 4, 6 so far this season, with the 7 coming with 3 kneeldowns. The average winning team takes less than 2 kneeldowns so that was a tough runout, and even in 2 competitive games that would encourage running, Lamar’s still gone under. This also serves as a revenge game for Derrick Henry, in case there’s any more incentive for them to call fewer designed runs for Jackson.

Full Week 7 NFL Edge >