Behind The Bet 1.26

Originally posted by Pulse · Sep 11, 2026, 3:42 PM EDT

Watson didn’t play a snap in 2025, which means we have to wander back to his record breaking 2024 campaign for past performance. He managed to surpass the low mark for a QB in EPA (Expected Points Added) over a 6 game span, where his -66.2 EPA edged out former NFL punchline JaMarcus Russell at 63.8. Watson did manage to beat out Pro Bowl QB Shedeur Sanders to run the offense for new head coach Todd Monken, who is inheriting a unit that ranked 31st in passing yards in 2025 and features PFF’s 31st ranked OL. With the Ravens last year, Monken’s offense played slow (30th in seconds per play). The Jaguars are a quietly good defense, ranked 7th in pass DVOA last year. Travis Hunter seemingly focusing more on CB could give them another boost there as well.

Originally posted by Pulse · Sep 11, 2026, 3:48 PM EDT

Denver's excellent man defense held Rice to 6.3 yards/reception last time out. Not expecting THAT low again but between Mahomes' likely statuesque nature off the surgery leading to quicker throws, Worthy's health potentially reducing Rice's role, and Kelce's ever-present space in the offense, Rice is unlikely to be both peppered AND efficient. Chiefs might lean more run-heavy with KW3 in tow as well.

Originally posted by Pulse · Sep 11, 2026, 3:50 PM EDT

Hall sat out the rest of camp with an injury, and while there aren't any reports of him missing, we saw CMC get a heavily reduced workload and the Patriots turned to a no-name to back up Rhamondre with Henderson out. Could see a slow-paced game, could see the Jets fall behind, and if the Jets win big they likely work in Braelon Allen more.