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Thursday, Oct 22nd
Patriots 24
Bears 27
Sunday, Oct 25th — Early
Steelers 24
Saints 21
49ers 26.25
Falcons 23.75
Browns 19.75
Titans 17.25
Colts 17.5
Vikings 24
Dolphins 17.25
Jets 21.75
Bucs 21.25
Panthers 23.75
Bengals 25
Ravens 23.5
Giants 16
Texans 26.5
Sunday, Oct 25th — Late
Broncos 23.75
Cards 19.25
Packers 25
Lions 28.5
Rams 25.75
Raiders 22.75
Chiefs 19.75
Hawks 22.75
Monday, Oct 26th
Cowboys 24.25
Eagles 19.75

Dummy Grid 4.26

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Trevor Lawrence
Chase Brown
Jeremiyah Love
Tee Higgins
Dohnte Meyers
Parker Washington
Brenton Strange
George Kittle
Chargers

Blue Chips

No Blue Chips for me this week.

“Light Blue” Chips
Jags at Bengals

With the same coaching staff and offensive structure, the Bengals ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation in 2025, while the Jags ranked sixth. The Jags’ defense was also a pass funnel last year, producing the second highest opponent PROE. Games with similar totals/spreads in the last 25 years have gone for 65+ total points 20.3% of the time, and with both of these teams sitting at 2-1 and having serious “deep playoff run” aspirations, I expect this game to have a playoff atmosphere, and for the Jags to be creating an aggressive game environment that the Bengals end up leaning into.

On the Bengals’ side, Chase Brown is averaging 19.7 touches per game while playing 70% of snaps, and he’s at least $700 to $800 underpriced for his role in this offense. Ja’Marr Chase is capable of being a genuine difference-maker on the slate, and Tee Higgins also sets up well, while Dohnte Meyers and Mike Gesicki are viable salary-savers that you can toss onto a roster built around this game.

On the Jags’ side, Parker Washington ranks top five among NFL wide receivers in yards per route run, targets per route run, percentage share of team targets and air yards, and first-read target rate, and for the first time this season, the Jags are entering a game environment where A) they’re not playing in Denver, and B) they’re not likely to be winning a a blowout. The Bengals are also, of course, much tougher against perimeter wideouts than they are over the middle. And the Bengals are still not good against tight ends, where Brenton Strange works well as a salary saver on rosters built around this game.

Trevor Lawrence is the best “at cost” quarterback on the slate on paper, and Joe Burrow can have a clear case made for him as the guy who can post the top raw score on the slate.

Bhayshul Tuten provides an excellent leverage angle from this game if you want to build around a different game environment (i.e., “The Jags/Bengals game probably doesn’t disappoint; so what if the touchdowns for the Jags flow through Tuten instead of through the passing attack?”), while Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. are “not ideal on-paper, but still capable of producing” options from this game that are sure to go overlooked.

All in all, this is a really strong game environment, and there’s a decent chance we see either A) rosters built around this game, or B) rosters with pieces from this game littering the tops of the leaderboards.

Ja’Marr Chase

See Jags at Bengals Build-Around

Brock Bowers

See Chiefs at Raiders Build-Around

Trey McBride

See Cardinals Build-Around

Parker Washington

See Jags at Bengals Build-Around

Build-Arounds

Cardinals

The Cardinals rank 10th in PROE (StatRankings), and the Giants — unsurprisingly — rank 30th. The Giants’ desire to “play to not lose” (rather than “playing to win”) is the one thing that dampens my excitement for this offense, as it may be tough for us to get a truly high-end outcome. But since Brissett took over under center, he has averaged 19.9 DK points per game, while McBride has produced like an $8k wideout. (On the season so far this year, McBride has more expected fantasy points per game than every wide receiver in the NFL except JSN and ARSB. His targets per route run would tie for third at wide receiver.) Michael Wilson, meanwhile, is getting a new treatment under the new coaching staff, with a 27.4% target share. He ranks fifth in the NFL among wideouts in expected fantasy points, and he looks genuinely excellent (body control, hands, etc.) when the ball comes his way. Wrapping things up in this concentrated offense, we have Jeremiyah Love, who saw his snap share rise from 43% // 40% the first two weeks to 64% in Week 3; and while his 26 touches last week were attributable to the Cardinals having 89 snaps on offense (a typical game is around 60-65), we should be able to confidently project him for 16+ touches this week. I like Brissett away from my Main Build; and I have included one of these three pieces from the Cardinals on most of the practice rosters I have built this week. All three are underpriced. It’s likely that at least one of them posts a really strong price-considered game this week.

Chiefs at Raiders

I do not think the Chiefs defense is scary, and I think the Raiders offense is good.

I do not think the Raiders defense is scary, and I think the Chiefs offense is good.

Brock Bowers is central to my thoughts this week, Kenneth Walker is very much in the mix once again, and guys like Jeanty, Kelce, Tucker, and ancillary Chiefs pieces can be considered as one-offs. But outside of Bowers (and possibly Walker), the way I really like thinking about this game is from a stacking perspective. It won’t surprise me if this game outscores Jags // Bengals — and if that happens, it won’t surprise me if Patrick Mahomes or even Kirk Cousins is the quarterback you needed to have from this slate when it’s all said and done.

Building Blocks

“Bowers, Part I”
Brock Bowers + Trey McBride
Story:

“TE Smash”

Why It Works:

If these guys were wide receivers, they would be priced in the high-$7ks. Instead, they are priced in the $6ks. Playing these two together allows you to grab two of the best values on the slate; and because the only way to play these two together is to use the Flex spot on a tight end, playing these two together means you get a tremendously low-owned combo capable of breaking the slate.

How It Works:

Unique combos of players with slate-breaking potential is one of my favorite ways to think about building blocks. If both guys smash, most Bowers rosters will not get the McBride points, and most McBride rosters will not get the Bowers points. By playing this block, you get both. If we get only three to six 30-point scores on this slate, and these two are among those 30-point producers, the Bowers rosters will gain an edge on the field, and the McBride rosters will gain an edge on the field. You’ll not only double your edge on the field, but you’ll also gain a further edge on the other McBride and Bowers builds.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Unleash Jameis”
Malik Nabers + Jeremiyah Love
Story:

“The Cardinals take a somewhat sizable lead”

Why It Works:

The Giants want to rein in Jameis, which hurts the chances of Nabers spiking. (Note: he can spike on lower volume; but the bet we really want to place on Nabers is that he’s seeing double-digit targets and posting a big game on volume, instead of soaking up a spot on one of our tighter builds and hoping for noteworthy efficiency.) How do the Giants get jolted out of a “rein in Jameis” game? By the Cardinals taking a big enough lead that the Giants have to click over to a more aggressive offense. Basically :: the type of game environment that helps Nabers is also the type of game environment that tilts work away from McBride/Wilson and over toward Love. We can take advantage of that by playing these two together.

How It Works:

As I noted in my journal this week, a “back and forth game” is unlikely to benefit Nabers, as the Giants’ approach in such a game will be to lean on offensive efficiency — attempting to stay ahead of the chains and limit the negative impact Jameis might have. Nabers will get some downfield looks in a back-and-forth game (and again: he’s capable of hitting), but volume and aggressiveness are unlikely to be in our favor in that type of setup.

This is not a block that’s likely to “win you the tourney on its own”; but it does allow you to play both of these players in a story that would most benefit both of them, where most of our competition will play one or the other of these guys without thinking about how they work together.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Bowers +, Part II”
Brock Bowers + Michael Wilson
Story:

“Bowers smashes; McBride doesn’t”

Why It Works:

Rosters that allocate a pay-up slot to Bowers at tight end will start with a similar construction to rosters that allocate a pay-up slot to McBride at tight end, which means that if both Bowers and McBride hit this week, a Bowers roster isn’t creating separation at pay-up tight end, and a Bowers roster is also pointed toward similar salary decisions as a larger chunk of the field. As such, the best way for a Bowers roster to have a clear path to first place is for McBride to also hit the lower end of his range; and if McBride hits the lower end of his range, this could mean Wilson is hitting the higher end of his range. This strategic setup also works with Love instead of Wilson. It’s not that “Bowers hitting” means anything for this Cardinals game; but playing Bowers benefits you most if McBride fails to smash, and adding another piece from the Cardinals that could benefit if McBride fails to smash is a nice way to strengthen that edge.

How It Works:

By no means does this block win you a tourney on its own. You’ll still need to think about how you beat the other Bowers rosters from here; but this is a nice way to lean deeper into a bet you’re already placing.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

See the Malik Nabers + Jeremiyah Love block above. This rule says, “On 100% of Nabers rosters, include Jeremiyah Love.”

Bonuses

Running Backs
  • TIER 1A ::
    • Derrick Henry :: I’ve had a lot of fun on the Twitter machine this week playing around with the upside scenario in this matchup — and that upside scenario is very much in play. But Henry is also, of course, a yardage-and-touchdown back at $8.4k with a beat-up offensive line taking on a strong Tennessee front. If I were playing MME, Henry would corner a portion of my builds, though I don’t currently think he’ll make his way onto my main roster this week. That said, I do think the Ravens try to get him a touchdown or two in this one, and there is potential for him to break off a legacy game that leaves us all wondering why we didn’t just pay $8400 for one of the most obvious narrative spots ever.
    • Christian McCaffrey :: CMC jumped from 55% and 52% of snaps the first two weeks to 83% of snaps in Week 3, so while his fantasy points didn’t follow, he’s back to the role we expect to see him in. With the 49ers offense banged up (what else is new?) and looking for a path forward against this tough Denver defense, I expect San Francisco to lean on CMC and Kittle in this spot — creating opportunity for CMC to produce in a vintage fashion. He’s not quite in the Light Blue category (though I went back-and-forth on that), but he’s definitely in the mix.
    • Kenneth Walker :: See Chiefs at Raiders Build-Around
    • Chase Brown :: See Jags at Bengals Build-Around
    • Cam Skattebo :: Because Skattebo lacks breakaway ability, he’s not a guy I typically gravitate toward; but in nine “real games” to start his career (taking out his low-usage Week 1 last year and the game he left with injury), he has gone for 24.1 or better twice, while finishing under 13 DK points only once. After averaging 1.03 DK points per touch last year, he’s down to 0.64/touch this year — but his touch share has grown (19/game this season), and he has the trust of this coaching staff. If his efficiency comes back up, he could end up as a really nice piece this week.
    • Aaron Jones :: Jones has played 81% and 80% of snaps the last two weeks (would rank second in the NFL, behind only Jonathan Taylor), while Demond Claiborne has played only 4% and 5%. Jones has had touch counts in back-to-back weeks of 23 and 22; and he’s still capable of breakaway plays. Also, he’s taking on the Dolphins in a game the Vikings should control (and in a game in which they’ll be missing Justin Jefferson). This could end up being the Aaron Jones game that people were chasing the last couple weeks.
    • Jeremiyah Love :: See Cardinals Build-Around
  • TIER 1B ::
    • Ashton Jeanty :: See Chiefs at Raiders Build-Around
    • D’Andre Swift :: Swift is the guy no one ever plays; but he has gone for 20+ in six of his last 15 games under Ben Johnson (40%), and he’s capable of cracking 30. He’s in the mix for me this week.
    • Kyren Williams :: Williams has played 63% of snaps for the Rams, and so far, he has all four carries inside the 10-yard-line for this backfield. We don’t typically see him priced under $6k, and we know he’s capable of ceiling, which makes him an interesting piece to consider — especially as he’s likely to go overlooked this week.
    • Bhayshul Tuten :: See Jags at Bengals Build-Around
  • TIER 2 ::
    • James Cook :: New England allowed the sixth fewest DK points per game to running backs last season, and they should continue to be tough on backs as this season develops. But Cook remains central to the Buffalo offense, and he’s a high-ceiling play unlikely to garner much ownership this week. On paper, he doesn’t stand out as a top-top play, but he’s worth mixing onto tourney builds as a guy capable of cashing in.
    • Braelon Allen :: Allen has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per touch in his career, and you could definitely see a scenario here where A) he gets 22 touches, and B) he swings to the positive side of variance for a really nice game. In most scenarios, I have him around 11-12 points before touchdowns, so our likeliest outcome is “something solid that doesn’t really tilt the slate in our favor”; but this does look like a week in which pass catchers could be valuable in DFS — and if that’s the case, the savings could be even more important than the points provided.
Wide Receivers
  • TIER 1A ::
    • Jaxon Smith-Njigba :: It’s basically a statement in its own right that JSN is in the Bonus section rather than in the Light Blue Chips. He has a 37.5% target share, and StatRankings has him at a 47.6% first-read share (tops in the NFL). He’s averaging 37.7 DK points per game, and has hit 4x his Week 4 salary in two of three games to start the year. All that said: JSN would not have gotten there last week if the Commanders hadn’t landed on some fortunate breaks that forced Seattle to play catch-up throughout the game; and I have a hard time painting the picture of this Chargers offense doing something similar in Seattle this week. I think we’re in for a Cooper Kupp 2021-type season for JSN, where even his “bad games” are over 20 points, and where he’s scoring 30-40 on a regular basis. But while I’ve definitely built quite a few practice builds with JSN, I do think this is a week in which he lands on the lower end of his range. This will still likely be a really strong score; but a blowup would be an outlier in this spot rather than the expected outcome. He’s an excellent play. But he’s Bonus for me at his price.
    • Zay Flowers :: I really like this play this week. Flowers has played only 41 snaps so far this year (essentially 63% of a typical NFL game), and he has gone 10-234-1 on 12 targets (with a 20-yard run thrown in for fun). The Titans are going to lean on the run game on offense, and the Ravens have not looked strong against the run so far, which could keep this game competitive enough for Flowers to see double-digit targets; and if he sees double-digit targets, he has potential to break the slate. Flowers in this Declan Doyle offense is going to be different than the Flowers we’ve gotten used to in the past. Maybe the 40-point eruption doesn’t show up this week; but I want to try to be there when it happens.
    • Tee Higgins :: See Jags at Bengals Build-Around
    • Malik Nabers :: See “Unleash Jameis” Building Block
    • Michael Wilson :: See Cardinals Build-Around
  • TIER 1B ::
    • Puka Nacua :: In 42 games since the start of 2024 (playoffs included), the Eagles have allowed three wide receiver games of 30+ DK points. Puka owns two of the top 10 games against the Eagles in this stretch…but these “top 10 games” have gone for only 25.8 and 23.7 DK points. Puka is popping in projections, and there’s a case to be made that you just play one of the top wideouts in the NFL when he’s underpriced, but I’m going to have a hard time making it all the way here on my tighter builds. He’s sharp enough that he’s been in plenty of my practice builds, but he’s more a guy I want to sprinkle into my rosters than use as a staple.
    • Nico Collins :: I’ve always leaned toward playing Nico in games against the AFC South (22.6 DK points per game on 9.2 targets, 11.5 yards per target; 25+ DK points in 33% || 15.0 DK points per game on 7.3 targets, 9.6 yards per target vs everyone else; 25+ points in 12% of games), but these numbers mostly are what they are because the AFC South has had bad defenses throughout Collins’ career. The Cowboys have a bad defense; and if the Cowboys can find their groove on offense (admittedly, a tough assignment in this matchup), the Texans could unleash Nico enough for him to post a high-end day.
  • TIER 2 ::
    • DJ Moore :: DJ Moore has a 22% target share (decent; unspectacular), but he has an aDOT of 15.8, and he has 32.6% of the Bills air yards on the year. If Christian Gonzalez ends up playing this week, I don’t necessarily want a part of this one; but if Gonzalez misses, Moore is very much in play, even against a tough Patriots defense.
    • Matthew Golden :: Golden ranks 13th in targets per route run, and with the Packers looking like a team that can’t run the ball (and taking on a Bucs defense that teams usually avoid the run against), Golden could be running plenty of routes in this one. With an aDOT of 13.9 and three end zone targets already, the ceiling is there to go with the usage.
    • Jakobi Meyers :: See Jags at Bengals Build-Around
    • Kalif Raymond :: When I ran simulations on this slate to calculate fair price (using component-level projections and spreads/totals as the baseline, and leaning into the Cascading Projections engine for allocating the redrawn stats in various game environments), Raymond’s fair price — given his projected role in this offense and game environment — came out to $4500. Which…in one sense, we know that $4.5k wide receivers still come with plenty of disappointments and downswings; but in another sense: yes. He’s definitely underpriced. We’re getting good value here.
  • “CHEAP WITH UPSIDE” ::
    • Dontayvion Wicks :: Wicks has a similar per-route profile (targets per route run; yards per route run) to Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey, and Tre Tucker, all of whom are priced higher than him. Realistically, those guys are overpriced for their early usage as opposed to Wicks being “clearly underpriced,” but he’s a week or two of strong results away from joining that “overpriced” group. In a game where Philly could ultimately find themselves throwing, there’s opportunity for Wicks to spike. (Note: I wrote this even before it became clear Devonta Smith would miss. Wicks can easily fail to hit here; but he’s nice value this week.)
    • Ryan Flournoy :: Even against WR3s, Houston is tough; but Flournoy is on the field a ton (73% to start the year), and he gets spillover targets in a pass-leaning offense. There is probably going to be a random game this year in which Flournoy spikes for 17+ DK points, and you could take a swing on this being that week.
    • Tyquan Thornton :: See Chiefs at Raiders Build-Around
    • Ted Hurst :: See Betas.
    • Dohnte Meyers :: See Jags at Bengals Build-Around
Tight Ends List
  • TIER 1A ::
    • George Kittle :: Kittle played 85% of the 49ers snaps last week after playing 46% and 48% to start the season. That’s just about all you need to know. He’ll be on the field; and when he’s on the field, the ceiling is high.
    • Travis Kelce :: See Chiefs at Raiders Build-Around
  • TIER 1B ::
    • Kenyon Sadiq :: Boy, did I whiff on this one. I was on SiriusXM with Dr. Roto on Saturday morning, and before we went on air, he said, “Do you like Sadiq this week?” I kind of scoffed, and said, “No.” Everyone else at OWS was on him, and it still wasn’t until Adonai Mitchell was ruled out that I said in my journal on Sunday morning that it stood to reason that Sadiq would have to be a bigger part of the game plan. Basically: he had missed training camp, and had so far been used in a gadgety type of way that implied to me they didn’t feel comfortable calling real routes for him yet. I failed to use my imagination to think what “a game of real routes vs the Lions” might mean. Thankfully, OWS was sharper than me on this last week, and the OWS Fam hit some winners last week that included Sadiq. This week’s spot is not as good, but after a 58% snap rate last week and eight targets, there’s a strong chance he’s on the field and seeing looks once again. Sadiq has immense physical talent, and is going to be a guy we keep in consideration almost every week moving forward, for as long as his price sits below his ceiling.
    • Mike Gesicki :: See Jags at Bengals Build-Around
    • Brenton Strange :: See Jags at Bengals Build-Around
  • TIER 2 ::
    • Tucker Kraft :: Kraft started the season at a 66% snap rate, and has only gone up since then. He has also seen 5.7 targets per game; and with the Packers unable to run, and teams unwilling to test the run vs the Bucs, we can expect passing volume in this spot. If you’re the Packers, you’re probaby trying to design a game plan around a short- and intermediate-passing attack that aims to march the field in this way while hunting explosives. Kraft would reason to be a key part of such an attack — so while there’s obviously concern that this offense as a whole might just not look right, there’s also upside to be hunted here.
DST
Vikings

Malik Willis has the fourth highest sack rate, and defenses agaisnt the Dolphins have the fifth most points per game. The Vikings, meanwhile, have throttled opposing offenses, and we should expect Flores to throw the kitchen sink at his old team. (He has faced them as Linebackers Coach and Senior Defensive Assistant with Pittsburgh, but he has not yet faced them as DC.) This is a tough one, as the Vikings are so much more expensive than other defenses; but they are also a lot more projectable than other DSTs. Sims and projections are not going to like them as much, so we have to sort of override that in our thinking if we want to play them. Basically, here’s how things shake out: there isn’t a “clearly strong defense” below the Vikings this week, which means I’m mostly paying down on rosters where I don’t have the Vikings…which means I’m moving up a clear tier at another position. That creates a tough balance. “How much do I trust the certainty of points from the Vikings?” Do I want a clear tier lower on a player somewhere else to move up to a DST I feel confident scores double-digits, with a shot at a difference-making game? Or do I want to hope I luck into 7-10 on a cheap defense and nail ceiling on a higher-priced player?” That’s the decision as I see it.

Cheapies

I originally had several other writeups in this space; but the truth is, if I’m not playing the Vikings, I’m going cheap. Rams. Cardinals. Even the Chargers if I need the savings. Pick who you want, basically, I expect some cheap defenses to score 7+, and we might get lucky with one of them going for a big game. But nothing stands out down low, and with that being the case, I don’t want to box in my ability to build the roster I want by deciding on a DST too early. On most of my practice builds, I’ve locked in the Vikings and tried to work around that, and then I’ve moved off them only if there’s something I can’t work with them.

Betas

These are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

The List
  • Jalon Daniels + Ted Hurst :: I like this play in large-field tourneys, as A) it’s capable of leading to 40 points, and B) getting there would not only get you solid points for the salary spent, but would get you solid points for the salary spent in a way that materially changes the rest of your roster — allowing you to land on unique combinations of high-priced players that others on the week won’t have. Basically, hitting this is worth more than just the points, and that’s a setup we always like leaning into in tourneys.

If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Joe Burrow || Patrick Mahomes || Trevor Lawrence || Jacoby Brissett

RB ::

Derrick Henry || Christian McCaffrey || Kenneth Walker || Chase Brown || Aaron Jones || Jeremiyah Love || || Cam Skattebo || Bhayshul Tuten

WR ::

Ja’Marr Chase || Parker Washington || || Jaxon Smith-Njigba || Zay Flowers || Tee Higgins || Malik Nabers (with Love) || Michael Wilson || || Other Jags and Bengals and possibly Raiders and Chiefs || “Cheap with Upside”

TE ::

Brock Bowers || Trey McBride || || George Kittle || Travis Kelce || || Kenyon Sadiq || Mike Gesicki || Brenton Strange

DST ::

Vikings || Cheapies

A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM