Let’s fade another star, shall we! George Kittle makes a huge difference in SF’s running game, specifically his ability to open up running lanes at the second level. In the 5 games without Kittle this season, CMC has longest runs of 10, 15, 11, 8, 11.

He’s also struggled mightily against above-average run defenses. Against TB/TEN/CLE/HOU/JAX/LAR x2 and SEA x2, he’s averaged between 2.5 and 3.3 YPC, going under 11.5 in 8 out of those 9 games. In the other 8 matchups, he went over in 7/8.

Seattle certainly qualifies as a strong rush defense, ranking #1 in Rush Def DVOA.

A rushing line this high you almost hit on principle. In arguably Taylor’s best season, he’s gone under this number in 11/14 games. For the over to hit, you’re essentially betting a 3 leg parlay: Colts are run heavy + run enough plays + Taylor stays healthy.

We expect the Colts to lean on the run again, but there is always a possibility they drop back a bit more now that Rivers has a game under his belt.

And there’s a much stronger possibility that the Niners offense controls time of possession and/or forces the Colts to play from behind—they are favored by 5.5 points.

Ricky Pearsall’s return likely has books dampening the outlook here, but they’ve gone too far. They all have Pearsall slightly higher in projections/odds while Jennings has been the more-targeted WR whenever they’ve both been healthy.

We’re also still not sure Pearsall plays, and if he misses this line jumps up a TON.

Even if he does play, this is underrating Jennings’ output significantly in what could be a high-scoring affair.

Adams projects for significantly over 5 in this spot against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense. The Rams just lost Tyler Higbee so we’re expecting less 13 personnel usage, which means more snaps for Adams and Puka.

As it stands, he is already averaging close to 9 targets per game, and his 50% catch rate is absolutely due for positive regression. There’s a chance Puka is still slightly hampered with his rib injury as well, having seen a significantly reduced target share since coming back from the injury.

Adams has out-targeted him in that span.

No idea what this line is doing here, as the Seahawks have only allowed 4 catches of 30+ all season, 2 of which were to a running back. Ward only has 5 completions of 30+ yards this season, which ranks 28th in the league and last among QBs who haven’t missed time due to injury.

We lost this bet with Brissett vs SEA a few weeks ago, but it was on the hook, to a RB, and was Brissett’s only completion of 25+ all game.

Ward will not be able to handle the exotic SEA blitzes McDonald throws at him.

We’re running back the same nuggets as before. You don’t pass deep against Seattle—the Seahawks have only allowed 4 catches of 30+ all season, 2 of which were to a running back. Now we expect an undrafted rookie with 1 year of FBS experience to go into Seattle for his first NFL start and chuck it around the yard? I don’t think so.

Even if you’re thinking KOC might be able to make something work like he did with Darnold—Darnold went under 31.5 in 9/18 games last season.

Brosmer is not Darnold and the Seahawks are not your average defense.