Papy’s Pieces 14.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This week gives us two standout games in Buf // KC (48.5) and Sea // SF (46.5). The first is expected to be competitive while the second has the largest spread on the slate. 
• The middle of the slate offers three games: Ind // Cin (44), Den // Lac (44), and Det // Chi (43). On the surface, Det // Chi looks like the best game environment of the group but it is also the game most likely to be impacted by weather.
• There are six games with totals below 42, and ten starting QBs who are either rookies or off-the-bench replacements.
• This week is expected to be competitive. There are only two spreads above a touchdown.
• Almost every game has important real-life implications for at least one of the teams. This week will go a long way to determining who makes the playoffs.

Pawn – WR Jonathan Mingo ($3,600)

Chris Tabor took over as interim head coach last week having never held a position other than special teams coordinator. It makes sense that he isn’t going to change much and will function as a friendly figurehead who can finish out a lost year. However, it’s not fair to expect him to change absolutely nothing, and the one thing that does appear to be on his mind is getting Mingo more involved in the offense. It always made sense to try and let Bryce Young build chemistry with Mingo, rather than relying on a past-his-prime Adam Thielen who isn’t likely to be around for more than a couple of seasons.  Mingo has been an every down player for a while, but last week was the first time he saw double digit targets. He hasn’t produced a big game yet but he’s priced like a punt and if his role holds, has some floor to go along with his ceiling. I like Mingo this week as a salary saver because he has 30-point upside and is likely to at least get you enough that at his salary he won’t kill you. I don’t plan on actively targeting this game outside of Mingo, which makes him a one-off salary saver for me this week.

Knight – WR Elijah Moore ($4,500)

I’ve never been high on Moore for DFS because he’s always felt like a mini-Keenan Allen. He usually occupies a possession role that requires extreme volume to produce a big fantasy score. He also tends to be priced for his consistency rather than his ceiling. This week is different.  Amari Cooper is still technically questionable, but I’m guessing that he sits since most players haven’t been able to clear the NFL concussion protocol in one week. If he plays, that will make me reevaluate using Moore, but if Cooper sits, Moore is in a position to soak up the type of volume he needs to post a strong DFS score at his price. The Browns let Joe Flacco throw 44 times in his first game as a starter and Moore saw 12 of those looks with Cooper in the game. Without Cooper, there is a real chance Moore could see 15 targets in the right game script. The Jaguars will likely be without Trevor Lawrence, which hurts the game’s total, but the Jags defense encourages passing and there is a good chance Flacco throws over 40 times regardless of game environment. Moore has a safe floor at his price and his upside is enhanced by the absence of Cooper. Take the discount on Moore if Cooper sits.  

Bishop – RB Zach Moss ($5,900)