You know the feeling. It’s why you’re here. That glorious, maddening, weekly riddle that consumes us right until kickoff: WHO DO I START? The impact? Maybe the difference is between mess-talking victory and soul-sucking defeat. And we all want that “edge,” don’t we? That little nugget that pats us on our tushies and tells us everything will be ok. A gentle nudge, if you will. I want you to know that I’m here each week to pat your tushies (figuratively). To give you my two cents on who needs to be touching grass and who needs to be riding pine. And why.
This is your nudge. *pats tushie* Now, let’s get this ‘W’.
WEEK 13 RECEIPTS
Twelve! I went 12-4 on the week, friends! QB was so-so (swing and a miss with Darnold), but fared well with the other positions. Let’s keep it rolling!
On the season, I’ve banked 122-86 (58.7%). It is my mission to get above 60% by the end of the season. Have faith, brethren.
QUARTERBACKS
Start: Sam Darnold (SEA @ ATL): You heard me right, I’m doubling down on Darnold in a juicy matchup against an Atlanta defense that hands out fantasy points like participation trophies. Seattle is favored by 7 with a respectable 43.5 O/U, and this is the perfect “get-right” spot for him to force-feed the ball to JSN and silence the doubters.
Start: Daniel Jones (IND @ JAC): The Colts are 1.5-point road favorites in a game with a massive 48.5 O/U, and frankly, you chase the points here. Jacksonville’s secondary has been generous all season, so hold your nose, trust the volume, and watch Jones stumble his way into a top-10 finish.
Sit: Patrick Mahomes (KC v. HOU): Benching Superman at Arrowhead feels blasphemous, but Vegas only giving this game a 41.5 total tells you everything you need to know about this defensive slugfest. Houston’s defense is a brick wall against the pass, and while the Chiefs will win and cover the -3.5 spread, Mahomes is going to be a game-manager, not a fantasy savior.
Sit: Geno Smith (LV v. DEN): The Raiders are getting embarrassed as 7.5-point home dogs with a pathetic 40.5 total, and trusting Geno against this Denver pass rush is fantasy suicide. This is a meatball pick, sure, but don’t overthink it – Geno is unplayable in this dumpster fire of an offense.
RUNNING BACKS
Start: Jonathan Taylor (IND @ JAC): The 48.5 projected total implies points in bunches, and Taylor is overdue to remind everyone why he’s royalty with an 80-yard house call against a Jacksonville front that looks tired. It’s been a rough patch, but opportunity meets talent this week, and I’m betting on the talent.
Start: Bucky Irving (TB v. NO): Tampa Bay is an 8.5-point favorite at home, which means positive game script and plenty of clock-killing carries for a fresh-legged Irving. He’s shaken off the rust, and with the Saints’ run defense crumbling, he’s a lock for 15+ touches and a trip to the paint.
Sit: Ashton Jeanty (LV v. DEN): I hate it for the talented rookie, but being a 7.5-point underdog means the Raiders will abandon the run by the second quarter. He’s stuck in quicksand with an offense that can’t sustain drives, and Denver’s front seven is going to live in the Vegas backfield.
Sit: Kareem Hunt (KC v. HOU): Just like Mahomes, Hunt falls victim to a gross 41.5 total and a Houston defense that flat-out stuffs the run. You’re looking at a floor game where he splits ugly carries in a low-scoring grinder, and I’m not risking my playoffs on 3.2 yards per carry.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA @ ATL): Seattle is laying 7 points in a dome, and JSN is the alpha receiver who benefits most from Darnold’s “get-right” game. Atlanta’s corners can’t run with him, so fire him up for a 7-115-2 stat line that makes up for last week’s headache.
Start: Christian Watson (GB v. CHI): The Packers are 6.5-point favorites at Lambeau with a healthy 44.5 total, and Watson’s chemistry with Love makes him the undisputed WR1 in this offense. I sat him last week and paid the price; don’t make my mistake when he torches a Chicago secondary that gets lost on deep balls.
Sit: Chris Godwin (TB v. NO): Being an 8.5-point favorite usually helps, but this game screams “run the ball and play defense,” limiting Godwin’s ceiling in a brutal matchup against New Orleans’ sticky slot coverage. I love that he’s healthy, but the volume won’t be there to save you in a game Tampa controls on the ground.
Sit: DJ Moore (CHI @ GB): Green Bay’s elite defense is going to suffocate the Bears, and with a low implied team total, Moore is staring down another 4-point disaster. He’s too sporadic to trust in a playoff-critical week, especially when I expect Chicago to be chasing the game from behind the whole afternoon.
TIGHT ENDS
Start: Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox (BUF v. CIN): This game has a slate-breaking 52.5 O/U, and whether it’s Kincaid or Knox, you want a piece of this shootout against a Bengals defense that bleeds points to tight ends. Buffalo is favored by 5.5, implying plenty of red zone trips where the tight end is Josh Allen’s favorite safety valve.
Start: Brenton Strange (JAC v. IND): You’re chasing points in the week’s second-highest total of 48.5, and Strange has quietly become a red-zone staple for this offense. The Colts linebackers are coverage liabilities, making Strange a sneaky-good bet to fall into the end zone in a high-scoring affair.
Sit: David Njoku (CLE v. TEN): The 33.5 O/U is the lowest on the board by a mile, and trusting a TE with bad QB play in a defensive slog is how you lose weeks. Tennessee suppresses tight end production, and with an athletic rookie stealing his targets, Njoku’s floor is subterranean.
Sit: Chig Okonkwo (TEN @ CLE): A 33.5 total game in Cleveland is where fantasy dreams go to die, and Chig’s path to production is blocked by scheme issues and rookie competition. I want him to be great, but you can’t start a guy relying on a rookie QB in the lowest-scoring game of the week.
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