QB:
Jordan Love, Packers– Love gets the dream match-up this week against the Cowboys, who are giving up the most points to opposing quarterbacks. Specifically, Dallas gives up the most passing yards as well as the second most passing touchdowns, and they are also first in yards per attempt. The only way Love doesn’t have 250 yards and two touchdowns is if Josh Jacobs runs multiple touchdowns in.
Geno Smith, Raiders– The Bears defense has been a sieve, allowing the fourth-most points to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve also allowed the most passing touchdowns and the seventh most passing yards. Smith hasn’t looked bad this year; he just needs the right game environment, and this should be that right environment. Put him down for 240 yards and two touchdowns.
Michael Penix, Jr., Falcons– Now hear me out on this one. Nobody in the world wants to play Penix after the disaster that we saw in Week 3 against Carolina. But because nobody wants to play Penix is exactly the time that you should play him! He’s back at home, in the dome, against a Commanders secondary that has been torched repeatedly this season. It wouldn’t shock me to see him have 245 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. I like him as a tournament play in DFS and as a prop over as well.
Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes
RB:
Saquon Barkley, Eagles–It seems counterintuitive to play Barkley against the team with the best run defense in all the NFL, but what people may be overlooking is that if you can’t run on Tampa, you have to throw on Tampa. The Buccaneers allow the second-most receiving yards and the second-highest yards per target to opposing running backs. Barkley could see anywhere from 6 to 8 receptions, which should make him a monster in any PPR format.
Ashton Jeanty, Raiders– it seems like we’ve been waiting now for Jeanty to finally have a big game, and it could be coming this weekend. Chicago allows the second most rushing yards and the fifth highest yards per carry this season. They’ve also allowed a 100% catch percentage to opposing running backs out of the backfield and the 7th most receptions. If there was ever a time for Jeanty to have his first hundred-yard game, this would be it.
Omarion Hampton, Chargers– Hampton was always going to be the top running back for the Chargers, but it’s a shame that it’s going to happen because of a major injury to Najee Harris. This weekend, he plays the Giants, who have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and the second-most rushing touchdowns this season. Lock him in for 120 total yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.
Honorable Mention: Chuba Hubbard, Woody Marks
WR:
Ladd McConkey, Chargers– The Giants have the second-worst DVOA versus slot receivers, and they let up the second-highest receiving yards and the second-most receptions to opposing receivers. It feels like Keenan Allen has had a big game and Quentin Johnston has had a big game, but not McConkey. That should change in Week 4 as McConkey goes for 100+ yards.
Darnell Mooney, Falcons– Mooney missed time because of his preseason injury, and now he’s just rounding back to form. He always seems to play better at home, where his speed gives him an advantage against opposing defenses. It feels like Atlanta will air it out a little bit and try to get Penix back on track, and I see him making a couple of downfield throws to Mooney, with at least one going for a 35-yard touchdown.
Matthew Golden, Packers– Dallas has let up 12.71 yards per target, which is the worst in the league. They’ve also let up a 75% catch percentage, so basically, they are allowing big plays to top receivers. Well, the big play receiver for the Green Bay Packers is Matthew Golden. We haven’t seen him have the big game yet, and that seems to be a running theme this week. Look for Golden to have a hundred yards receiving and one touchdown.
Honorable Mention: Josh Downs, Puka Nacua
TE:
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings– Don’t forget that Minnesota plays in Ireland at 9:30 a.m. on Sunday. You won’t want to forget this because you definitely want to play Hockinson against the Steelers, who have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends, as well as the sixth most receiving yards. Carson Wentz looked for him last week, and he will continue to do so again this coming Sunday. Put Hockenson down for 70+ receiving yards and at least 5 receptions.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs– The horrible numbers for the Baltimore Ravens against opposing tight ends are staggering. They have the second-worst DVOA against opposing tight ends, and they’ve allowed the second-most receiving yards. The most incredible statistic is that they’ve allowed the highest catch percentage and the second-highest yards per target against the posing tight ends, too. Both of these teams need to win this game, and for the Chiefs to do it, they’re going to rely on Kelce. Look for him to have about 80 yards receiving and a touchdown.
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys– With Lamb out for the next month or so, the Cowboys are going to rely more on Ferguson than they probably anticipated when the season started. Green Bay has a smothering defense, but they’ve allowed the third most receiving yards and the third most receptions to opposing tight ends. Dak Prescott always seems to rely on Ferguson when he needs a big play, and he certainly is going to need a few this week if Dallas wants to stay in this game. Look for Ferguson to have eight catches for 70 yards in this one.
Honorable Mention: Mason Taylor, David Njoku