Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.
Just a two game slate this week, so to be honest with you all, I’m not going to be playing a lot on this week’s Afternoon Only slate. There are various reasons for this. First, this week’s games are already SO split up with a two game Christmas slate, a three game Saturday slate, and our usual Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games so the main slate is already condensed. Second, the NFL broke the remaining games up in a 6-2 split with only two games in the late window. Third, and perhaps most importantly, that late window of two games features two spots that appear to be very predictable and a ton of lineups will be built in VERY similar ways. The Dolphins // Browns game has two backup QBs set to face off in questionable weather, while the Packers // Vikings game features two of the stronger offenses in the league facing each other in a dome. The majority of rosters will use a defense from the MIA/CLE game, a QB from the GB/MIN game, and one or maybe two offensive players at most from the MIA/CLE game. The most popular players from that MIA/CLE game will be RBs Jerome Ford and De’Von Achane. The problem here is that with the size of the tournaments offered and such a clear way that is optimal to build, it is going to be really, really hard to be unique without being “dumb.” I’ll still dabble a bit, but the main slate is small enough that I won’t do my usual volume on this slate.
Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:
