Caleb or Justin? Draft Day Decision – 2025
This draft cycle, a few quarterback decisions will test your draft instincts like choosing between Caleb Williams and Justin Fields. Both are stepping into dramatically improved situations — new coaching staffs, upgraded weapons, and systems built to highlight their strengths. For fantasy managers targeting upside in the middle rounds, this choice could be the swing pick that shapes your entire season.
Williams enters Year 2 in Chicago after an encouraging rookie campaign and now has Ben Johnson, the offensive architect behind Detroit’s top-five scoring units, tailoring the playbook to his strengths. Fields, meanwhile, gets a full reset in New York with the Jets — a franchise looking to turn the page after a chaotic 2024. He’s surrounded by a dynamic supporting cast and paired with a play-caller who’s willing to use his legs and arm in equal measure.
Both quarterbacks are being drafted in a similar range across most formats—often between QB10–QB14 — and each offers real upside as a dual-threat breakout who could outscore their ADP.
The question is: Who gives you the better shot at a league-winning season?
Let’s break it down.
The Case for Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
It’s Year 2—and it’s time to blow the damn doors off.
Let’s get one thing straight: Caleb Williams didn’t just survive his rookie year — he flashed. He played like a guy who’s not just comfortable in the NFL, but ready to own it. And now? He’s got Ben Johnson — the mad scientist who turned Jared Goff into a fantasy QB1 and Detroit into an offensive juggernaut — building the scheme around him in Chicago. Let that sink in.
The Bears finally stopped pretending. They didn’t just give Caleb weapons — they handed him an arsenal. This isn’t a rebuild. It’s a launch sequence.
• DJ Moore – a route technician and yards-after-catch machine
• Rome Odunze – entering Year 2 after showing WR1 upside late last season
• Luther Burden III – the rookie slot demon who eats in space
• Colston Loveland – an athletic TE who’s already drawing Sam LaPorta comps
• A three-headed backfield with D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, and Kyle Monangai that’s built to punish soft boxes and rip chunk plays
• A retooled offensive line to keep CW18 upright and downfield
Ben Johnson’s offense is timing-based, creative, and punishes defenses that can’t match up across the field. And with this much speed and route-running polish, Caleb’s going to live in favorable matchups. Expect RPOs, play-action deep shots, and plenty of designed movement to give Caleb clean looks.
Oh — and let’s not ignore the historical backdrop: The Chicago Bears, one of the oldest franchises in football, have never had a 4,000-yard passer. Never-ever. Caleb has a very real shot to not only shatter that ceiling but do it decisively. Think 4,500 yards, 30 TDs, and a few hundred rushing yards for good measure. Fantasy gold.
The Case Against Caleb Williams
But for all the hype — and there’s a lot of it — there’s still risk here. Let’s start with the obvious: Caleb Williams is entering just his second year in the league, with a brand-new offensive coordinator, a retooled receiving corps, and the weight of an entire tortured fanbase begging him to be The One. That’s not a fantasy narrative, it’s a pressure cooker.
Yes, Ben Johnson’s offense turned Jared Goff into a machine in Detroit. But Goff was a veteran with years of experience running timing-based West Coast schemes. Caleb? He’s still refining his processing speed and timing in the NFL. That off-script magic we all love? It’s a double-edged sword when it leads to turnovers, busted plays, or taking unnecessary hits. It looked fun at USC. It looks dangerous in December in Green Bay.
So yes, Caleb Williams could break history. But he could also give you 16 points in Week 14 during a sleet bowl in Wisconsin with your season on the line.
The Case for Justin Fields (New York Jets)
Run it back — literally.
Justin Fields finally gets what he’s always needed: a system designed around his actual strengths, not square-peg round-holed into something he’s not. With Aaron Glenn now leading the Jets and Tanner Engstrand (fresh from Detroit’s creative offense) calling plays, the identity is crystal clear — run the damn ball, and let Fields destroy defenses with his legs and arm.
This offense is going to lean on the run — early, often, and do it well. And that’s a good thing. Because Fields is the most dynamic dual-threat QB this side of Lamar Jackson, and in a ground-heavy attack, we’ve seen him as the engine — not just a passenger.
The backfield is anchored by Breece Hall, but has plenty of thunder and lightning in the younger guys, which forces defenses to respect the run. That opens lanes for Fields to keep it on RPOs, rollouts, and designed QB runs. Garrett Wilson gives him a legit WR1 (one of my favs actually) who can separate, and rookie TE Mason Taylor offers a big, athletic target over the middle who’s tailor-made for bootlegs and play action.
Engstrand will borrow heavily from Detroit’s motion-heavy, gap-blocking, YAC-hunting script — but adapted for Fields’ mobility. Think a ceiling of Jalen Hurts meets vintage Cam Newton. Fields won’t be asked to throw it 40 times a game — he’ll be asked to break games open on 12 carries and 22 throws.
With a top-10 rushing floor at quarterback, red-zone carry potential, and actual weapons, Fields is a fantasy cheat code in waiting —especially if he gets even modest passing efficiency.
The Case Against Justin Fields
For all the promise, there’s still plenty of reason to pump the brakes.
Let’s start with the passing game — because even with a better system and stronger weapons, Fields has never shown consistent accuracy or timing as a thrower. Yes, he can rip off highlight plays, but in a run-heavy scheme where volume is limited, you’re relying on hyper-efficiency and rushing touchdowns to carry your fantasy week. That’s a dangerous game. Aaron Glenn might be building a smashmouth identity, but low pass volume + a run-first OC means Fields could end up throwing fewer than 30 times a game. If the Jets’ defense is good— and it should be — there’ll be even less incentive to air it out. In fantasy terms, that equals narrow margins for big weeks unless Fields goes nuclear on the ground, which he hasn’t done consistently against top-tier defenses.
Let’s talk durability—because when you’re building a fantasy roster around a dual-threat QB like Justin Fields, you’re also signing up for exposure to punishment. It’s just the nature of the beast. And Fields’ fantasy value hinges almost entirely on his legs. The rushing upside is real — but so is the contact. Fields doesn’t slide like Russell Wilson, and he’s not built like Josh Allen. And what if the dislocated toe lingers? It’s a foot injury for a quarterback whose fantasy upside depends on burst, cuts, and acceleration.
And… it’s the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. The pressure’s enormous, the media glare is relentless, and if the team stumbles early, that leash might not be as long as we’d hope. Another rough stretch could spark whispers of change — especially since Tyrod Taylor has proven to be competent (at the very least) in the past.
So yes, the upside is massive. But the floor? It’s still frighteningly low.
Verdict: Caleb Williams > Justin Fields
He’s entering Year 2 in a Ben Johnson-designed offense that just might unlock everything. He’s got weapons everywhere and a run game deep enough to chunk yards and help move the sticks. Most importantly, he looked sorta legit (when he wasn’t planted one of 68 times) as a rookie and is poised to become Chicago’s first 4,000-yard passer in history. The floor is safe, the ceiling is elite.
Justin Fields? He could absolutely smash in a run-heavy Jets offense, especially on the ground. But you’re betting on low passing volume, high rushing TDs, and perfect health to return value. It’s a high-variance ride.
If you’re drafting a mid-round QB and want breakout upside with more week-to-week stability, Williams is the guy to bet on in 2025.
And no, not just because I’m a Bears homer.