You’ve lucked (or worse) your way into the top five picks of your 2025 fantasy draft – a golden seat at the table where you can lock in a weekly 20+ point hammer and coast to the playoffs. Congratulations — you’re also officially in the “don’t (expletive) this up” tier of the draft. And here’s the dirty truth: top-5 picks do bust — and when they do, they take your season down with them. We’ve all seen it — Christian McCaffrey’s injury-shortened and inefficiency-plagued 2024, Jonathan Taylor’s nightmare 2022, or Le’Veon Bell’s holdout in 2018. Maybe it’s a blown knee in Week 2, a hamstring that never heals, or a contract dispute that drags into October. All it takes is one bad break, and your “can’t-miss” pick becomes the anchor that sinks you.
And this season, few choices are as brutally tough as deciding between Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. Both are athletic freaks. Both are offensive focal points. And yes, both could be the linchpin of your 2025 championship season.
Here’s the thing… these guys have massive upside — the kind of players who can singlehandedly swing a week and tilt a league. I’m not here to tell you one is a landmine, friends. I’m here to sort through the numbers, context, and opportunity so you
can make the right call between two elite backs with league-altering ramifications.
This is your swing-for-the-fences moment. Here’s how not to whiff.
The Case for Saquon Barkley
First, let’s talk about how bleeping ridiculous Saquon was last season:
Rushing: Over 2,000 yards (5.8 YPC), 13 tuddys
Receiving: 33 receptions for 278 yards, 2 touchdowns
Touches: 378 — most in the NFL
22.2 fantasy points-per-game
The skinny heading into 2025:
Elite O-line + workhorse role in a top-scoring Eagles offense.
Red zone machine, except when Hurts calls his own number.
Coming off immense workload — history indicates possible efficiency regression.
This wasn’t just “good.” This was historic. After escaping the Giants’ offensive stone age, Barkley joined the Eagles and ran behind a line that opens lanes like airport security at 4 a.m. Nick Sirianni made him the engine of the offense, feeding him
relentlessly in all situations. Barkley rewarded him by being the most productive running back in football.
2025 Outlook: Nothing about this setup screams “fluke.” The O-line is intact. The scheme is built for efficiency. The Eagles still live in the red zone. Barkley has a role (albeit a small one) in the passing game, meaning he’s essentially game-script-proof.
And the RB depth chart behind him? Purely ornamental.
The Case Against Saquon Barkley
It’s short, but it’s real: 350+ touches are a huge red flag for me. Running backs historically see efficiency and durability dip after a season with that kind of volume. Barkley turns 28 this year, which is still a productive age, but no longer a spring chicken
phase — and given his past ACL tear and multiple lower-body injuries, it’s fair to wonder
how much wear-and-tear he can absorb moving forward.
And then there’s Jalen Hurts, TD thief extraordinaire. The “Brotherly Shove” or “Tush Push” (your preference) isn’t going anywhere, and if Hurts punches in another 8–10 scores from the 1-yard line, Barkley’s rushing TD ceiling may be capped, possibly even receded. You’re buying at the absolute peak, and if you ignore these warning signs, you
may have buyer’s remorse.
The Case for Bijan Robinson
Year 2 was Bijan’s real arrival party:
Rushing: 1,456 yards (4.8 YPC), 14 touchdowns
Receiving: 61 receptions (3rd among RBs) for 431 yards, 1 touchdown
Touches: 365 – 2 nd in the NFL (right behind Saquon)
20.1 fantasy points-per-game
The skinny heading into 2025:
Year 3 explosion candidate with upgraded QB play and a stable offensive
system.
Versatile enough to dominate in any game script.
Younger, fresher, and still has room to improve into the RB1 overall.
And here’s the kicker — that production came while the Falcons were still in offensive transition. 2025 is Year 3 for Bijan, and the setup is cleaner than ever: stable offensive system, upgraded QB play, and no ambiguity about his role. He’s the engine of the
offense, and his pass-game work makes him virtually bust-proof.
2025 Outlook: This is the kind of profile that can push for the RB1 overall crown. Bijan is young, explosive, and versatile, with enough passing work to be matchup-proof and enough red zone involvement to rack up TDs. With the potential for favorable game scripts, and if the offense takes even a modest step forward, we could see 2,000+ total
yards and 18+ TDs in Mr. Robinson’s neighborhood.
The Case Against Bijan Robinson
The list is even shorter here. Tyler Allgeier will still get some between-the-tackles work, especially in clock-kill mode. He’s not a threat to the job, but he’s just annoying enough to siphon 45–50 touches over the season that should’ve gone to Bijan.
And while Penix Jr. seems legit, we still don’t know exactly how high this Falcons offense can climb in Year 2 of the . If they hover around league-average scoring, Bijan’s ceiling might be slightly capped — not enough to make him a bad pick, but enough to
keep him from going supernova, which we need out of a top 5 pick.
Final Verdict
Barkley is the pick if you want to sleep at night. He’s proven, he’s dominant, and his worst-case scenario still looks like a top-5 RB finish. But there’s a price to that safety — you’re buying on last year’s absolute peak, and expecting it to repeat isn’t realistic, at
all.
Bijan, on the other hand, is the bet you make if you want to win your league with style points. He’s younger, fresher, and still has room to climb from an already elite baseline. He’s the guy who can lead the league in touches and efficiency, and if the offense hits, he’ll be the one posting 2024 Saquon numbers.
My pick? Bijan Robinson. All day.
Barkley is the steady RB1. Bijan is the nuke. And when you’re drafting in the top 5, you’re here to blow (expletive) up.
Be bold. Be right. Be champions.