Each conference in the NFL has a lousy division. The divisions may change over time, but invariably, there is always one laggard. In the NFC, that division is the NFC South (comprising the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, and Atlanta Falcons); there won’t be an NFC Super Bowl participant coming out of this division.
The same is true of the AFC South, which consists of the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans. In this year’s NFL Draft, the first two picks were taken by the Titans and the Jaguars. Granted, the Jaguars traded up into the second spot, but they only moved up three spots. Because of those two teams, half the division was awful. Tennessee was 3-14 while the Jags were only 4-13.
HOUSTON TEXANS: The division was so bad that the Texans were the only team to be .500, winning the division with a 10-7 record. By all accounts, it was still a successful season, especially considering the injuries in their WR room. WRs Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and Stef Diggs all missed considerable time. QB CJ Stroud did have a sophomore slump, but some of that can be attributed to those injuries.
He went from 4100 yds in his rookie campaign to under 3800 yds. And his TDs dipped from 23 to 20. Most concerning was that his interceptions more than doubled, from just five to 12. The offense brings back both Collins and Dell, and is replacing Diggs with three WRs. They brought in Christian Kirk from Jacksonville and snagged two WRs in the draft, Jayden Higgins in the second round, and Jaylin Noel in the third.
This team is looking to jump-start their offense, which averaged only 21.8 points last season —the same amount of points that their defense gave up. Aside from bolstering their WR room, they also upgraded their core of RBs, bringing in two veterans, Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb.
Vegas has this team’s o/u set at 9.5. Look for Stroud to bounce back and again lead this team to at least 10 wins, another division title, and a playoff run. As far as individual numbers, Stroud is projected to pass for 3800 yds and 21.5 TDs. Take the over on both numbers.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Anthony Richardson is the poster child for why it is so difficult to project and draft QBs early. He was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft, and after two mediocre seasons, the leash is growing shorter and shorter. And at this moment, there are inklings that Daniel Jones is the QB1, with Richardson as the backup. And, they took a flyer on Riley Leaonard in this year’s draft, in the sixth round.
With all the turmoil at QB, they managed an 8-9 season. They do have talent and aren’t that far away from a .500 season and playoff contention. But as often is the case in the NFL, it comes down to the QB.
They have a legitimate top 10 RB in Jonathan Taylor. They drafted Tyler Warren, who is the top-ranked TE coming out of the draft. And their WR room is above average, led by Michael Pittman, with Alec Pierce and Josh Downs. Although none of them are top 25 WRs, the three are all in the top 50-75. They could use a true WR1, but from top to bottom, they are fine…especially with TE Warren.
Their Achilles heel is definitely their offense. They only scored 22.2 points per game, and their quarterbacks threw for only 20 touchdowns last year, while also throwing 19 interceptions. And, they averaged under 200 yds per game. Behind mostly Taylor, the team rushed for over 2300 yds, and 20 rushing TDs.
But this is a passing league. They have enough, especially in this division, to stay in the 7-10 to 9-8 range. To go into that next level, they need much better QB play, whether from Jones or Richardson.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: This is a make-or-break season for QB Trevor Lawrence. Let’s face it, up to this point in his career, he’s been a bust. And, if he weren’t selected with the first pick in the draft, we’d have already gone by way of the dinosaur…or Mac Jones. Relegated to journeyman QB, bouncing from team to team, as a backup.
Hopefully for him, and Jaguar fans…the few that there are, that this will be their year. Last year, they were only 4-13, and were able to trade up to snag two-way player Travis Hunter. He may be the spark they need. He does give Lawrence another dynamic receiver to get the ball to, along with WR1 Brian Thomas. With the addition of Dyami Brown, on paper, they appear to have a solid WR room.
They still have the tandem of Travis Etienne Jr and Tank Bigsby in the backfield. After two promising 1000+ yd rushing seasons, Etienne only rushed for about half that amount last season. Bigsby actually rushed for more yards than Etienne, gaining 766 yds last year. For this to be a successful season, they will need to combine for between 1600 and 2000 yards.
They desperately need to improve their time of possession. Last season, they held the ball for only 27 minutes per game. Their pt differential was 6.8, and they gave up nearly 100 more yds per game. And, they gave up 15 more TDs throughout the year than they scored. Their offense was anemic. Lawrence did miss seven games last year, which didn’t help. But they were only 2-8 in the games he did play.
Las Vegas believes they will see a bump this season, with an o/u set at 7.5. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I can see this team elevating to 9-8 and in the hunt for a back-end playoff spot.
TENNESSEE TITANS: This is a bad football team. Having the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft validated and emphasized this point. They were 3-14 last season, and Las Vegas only has an over/under of 5.5 wins this year. I’ll cut to the chase…take the under.
Their point differential last season was -8.8 points per game. They averaged less than two TDs per game and under 200 total YDs. Their quarterbacks were sacked a total of 52 times, while throwing a total of 22 touchdowns and giving away 21 interceptions. And their TO ratio was a disastrous -16 over the course of the year, nearly one per game.
Welcome to the NFL, Cam Ward. The rookie from the Miami Hurricanes enters a dire situation. He has three aging WRs to get the ball to. Van Jefferson, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Lockett make up the WR room. They did take a flyer on two WRs in the fourth round of this year’s draft, but they need more than that to make any significant difference to this offense. They didn’t improve their backfield, with Tony Pollard and Tajae Spears coming back. If you recall, Derrick Henry was supposedly too old, and Spears was going to be the heir apparent…not so much.
I will be shocked if this team surpasses Vegas’ number, and the top pick in the draft could be ahead of them again at the end of this season.