For the better part of two decades, this division featured one dominant team, with three tomato cans. The Patriots won 11 consecutive divisions from 2009 to 2019, along with many others from the start of the turn of the century. And Tom Brady led them to eight consecutive AFC Championship games. They went to nine Super Bowls and won six Lombardi Trophies.
It was easy; they faced the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets six times per year, which led to 12 or more wins every year. But the tables have turned, with the Bills now dominating this division. Last season, they were the only team to finish above 500, with a 13-4 record.
BUFFALO BILLS: The Bills averaged 30.9 pts per game last year, with a 9.3 pt differential. They scored 20 more TDs than their opponents throughout the season. Although Josh Allen’s stats weren’t as gaudy, he managed to win his first MVP award. He missed 4000 passing yds, and didn’t even throw 30 TD passes, but he was extremely efficient, only throwing six interceptions. He added 531 rushing yards, with 12 rushing TDs.
This Bills team is very similar to those Pats teams. The sum of their parts is greater than the whole. While they don’t have superstars on offense other than Allen, they possess a rushing game led by James Cook that gained 2230 rushing yds. Last season, Khahil Shakur led the team with 76 receptions and 821 yards. And their two TEs, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, combined for 66 passes.
And in the offseason, they signed free agent WRs Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore. They just re-signed Cook to a monster contract to keep him in the fold…and happy. This team is ready to take the next step, and my pick is for them to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Back-to-back 13-4 seasons is a real possibility, which would be an easy over…Vegas has their o/u at 11.5 games.
MIAMI DOLPHINS: Last season, the Bills were the only team to finish the season above 500. The Dolphins were 8-9, with Tua Tagovailoa only starting 11 games. HC Mike McDaniel’s future is tied to Tua staying healthy, which is a dangerous proposition. Even with their talent, I can see another sub-500 season.
With arguably the best 1-2 WR tandem in the league, Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle only combined 1629 receiving yds. And if I were to tell you that Jonnu Smith led the team in receptions (88), and TDs (8), you wouldn’t believe me…and they inexplicably got rid of him in the offseason. De’Von Achane missed 1000 rushing yds, but did gain 592 passing yds. As a team, they only scored 12 rushing TDs all season.
If Tua can stay healthy, which is a big if, this team does have enough talent to stay in the 8-9 to 10-7 range. Last year, they only averaged 20.3 pts per game. This team should be able to get into the 22-24 pt range, which will be worth a game or two. In the draft, they addressed their defense by selecting five defensive players. And they picked up five other defensive players via free agency and trades. This feels like a make-or-break season for the Dolphins.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: This team has only won four games in each of the last two seasons. They only scored 17 pts per game last year, and their point differential was -7.5. They only had 18 passing TDs and 11 rushing TDs all year. Rookie QB Drake Maye started 12 games and averaged only 175 passing yards per game. He threw 10 interceptions and fumbled the ball nine times. And they had a -11 turnover ratio.
If WR Ja’Lyn Polk gets cut, the only player left from the 2024 draft will be Maye. And he hasn’t looked good this offseason. The team did make a huge effort to improve themself on the offensive side of the ball. With the no.4 pick, they selected LT Will Campbell. They also added Ohio St RB Treveyon Henderson in the second round, who’s looked fantastic, and Kyle Williams in the third round.
And they further bolstered their WR room by signing Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins. Las Vegas seems to have bought in, setting their o/u at 8.5. Unless Maye has a huge spike from his rookie campaign and this preseason, this will be an easy under.
NEW YORK JETS: The two-year Aaron Rodgers experiment turned out to be a disaster. The team has freed themself of Rodgers and has replaced him with Justin Fields. They do have talent at their skill positions. They have a legitimate no.1 WR in Garrett Wilson, who had 1104 receiving yds, and a fantastic tandem backfield with RBs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. The two underwhelmed last season, only combining for 1359 yds. And the team only had eight total rushing TDs all season.
In the draft, they picked up TE Mason Taylor, who could be the perfect safety blanket for Fields. They also picked up WRs Josh Reynolds and Tyler Johnson in the offseason. They only won five games last season, and although ending the season above 500 will be tough, they should win a couple more games than they did last year.