Jets at Browns

By: xandamere & Larejo

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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

This season’s tradition of amazing island games continues as Week 17 kicks off with the Jets visiting the Browns. We have a 35-point total game with Cleveland favored by 7.5, with one of the worst offenses in the league on the road against one of the NFL’s very best defenses. The good news is that we can have high confidence in how the field is likely to build for this one. The bad news is that this is likely to be a terrible football game to watch.

Cleveland

On the Browns side, the backfield is primarily a two-way split between Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, with Pierre Strong mixing in a little bit. This creates kind of a gross situation. On the one hand, the best way to attack the Jets is on the ground (third in pass defense DVOA but 13th in run defense DVOA) and the Browns are large home favorites, but on the other hand, the Browns have been extremely pass-heavy since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback and we’re dealing with a split backfield. Ford has the lead over Hunt in snaps but his rushing role is wildly inconsistent with just one 20-carry game and a few more of 15+, but he’s seen 53 carries in Cleveland’s last five games. He does tend to see more carries in games that the Browns win handily (15 last week while stomping Houston), so the game script favors some extra workload. He’s also had consistently robust passing game involvement with four targets per game since Nick Chubb went down in Week 2. Hunt’s role has been much smaller, as despite his reputation as a good receiving back he’s been seeing almost no passing game work (just 19 targets in 13 games with the Browns) and generally around 8-10 carries per game but he’s leeched away a ton of Ford’s value by scoring a whopping eight touchdowns. Hunt has established a role as the red zone back, with 30 red zone carries to Ford’s 15, and 11 carries inside the 5-yard line to Ford’s four. So, Ford gets more volume but not really bell cow-type volume, while Hunt gets limited volume but has a ton of touchdown equity. That makes for a tough split. Ford is just $8,400 so it’s feasible that if he gets some decent receiving work, he could potentially pay off his salary without scoring a touchdown, while Hunt almost certainly needs a touchdown in order to be viable. Given the matchup and the likely game script, I’m in on Ford in builds predicated on the Browns winning, while Hunt is more of a tournament “touchdown or bust” dart throw. Strong isn’t seeing enough volume to be anything more than a pure punt play.

In the passing game, we’ve seen Joe Flacco attempt between 42 to 45 passes in all four of his starts with Cleveland. He’s averaging a quite respectable 7.5 yards per pass attempt (which would tie him with Dak Prescott and Matt Stafford), though that has come in solid passing game matchups whereas this one is a certified nightmare. When Flacco joined Cleveland, the OWS team was trying to determine if Cleveland would just let Flacco be himself, or if they would tailor his role to their run heavy offense. So far, they’ve let Flacco be himself and it’s resulted in a ton of passing volume and some big games for their top receivers. But this matchup is different than the others he’s faced and leans more towards the run, so . . . will they keep letting Flacco chuck it (and keep in mind he has seven interceptions in four games)? Or, will they lean more run heavy given that’s what the matchup seems to favor? The answer is I don’t really know – rational coaching would say to take a more run heavy approach, be conservative, and focus on the weakness of the defense. After all, the Browns are 10-5 and competing for seeding so they can’t just throw things to the wind here. But, the assumption of rational coaching is a dangerous thing. For me, I’m going to just build sets of rosters under both assumptions. 

The Browns will trot out Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman as their primary wide receivers, with David Bell and Marquise Goodwin playing small backup roles. Amari has seen 42 targets since Flacco took over at quarterback, but is set for a date with Sauce Gardner, one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks. Normally, I don’t put a huge amount of stock into WR/CB matchups, but this is one of the most difficult ones around (especially since the Jets secondary isn’t just about Gardner – they’re elite all around). $11.2k is a lot to spend for a receiver in such a nightmare matchup, but you can make a case for paying up for ceiling and likely lower than normal ownership. Moore has done nothing all season, really. He has four games over 10 DK points, but his season-high is 15.4. That’s . . . not good. Flacco gave him 12 targets in their first game together (of which he caught just four), and then six, three, and four targets. I’m pretty out on Moore outside of a small bit of tourney exposure as a dart throw. I’d rather play Tillman due to price, as while Moore is $6,600, Tillman is just $3k. He’s averaging five targets per game since Flacco took over (vs. Moore’s 6.25), but he’s seemed capable of catching some of them, which is, you know, kind of an important trait for an NFL receiver. He’s on the field almost as much as Amari and Moore and might see some softer coverage if New York really focuses on Amari. The floor is low for any pass catcher in this game, but at his price, I think Tillman is worthy of strong consideration. Bell and Goodwin are just punt options, with Bell’s role likely getting a modest boost if Goodwin’s knee injury keeps him out. 

At tight end, David Njoku has the lead role, and it’s a big one with 70%+ of the snaps in every game this season. He’s another one who has earned Flacco’s trust with 37 targets through four games – that’s a huge workload for a tight end and it’s also come along with four touchdowns. At $7,800, Njoku just isn’t priced for that kind of volume. He can play in the short areas of the field for some easier PPR points but he can also run deep routes as he has multiple catches of 20+ yards with Flacco at QB. He’s my overall favorite pass catcher on the Browns. Harrison Bryant and Jordan Akins will play some backup TE snaps and can be included in MME player pools as punt options.

New York

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On the Jets side of things, Breece Hall has the lead back role locked down, but since the Jets so consistently find themselves in negative game scripts he’s generally had his biggest games through the air rather than on the ground. Hall has only exceeded 50 rushing yards four times this season and only once since Week 5, and frankly has not displayed much of the explosiveness that we’re used to seeing from him (which could well just be because teams can anticipate the run against the Jets given the ineptitude of their passing game). Where Hall has shined is in the passing game. He has 84 targets on the season, which is tied for first in the NFL with Alvin Kamara, and more than Christian McCaffrey – and he’s tied with CMC for first with 537 receiving yards. The combination of goal line role and significant passing game role makes Hall the overall highest floor/ceiling play on this slate, even in a difficult matchup, and I lean towards him over Cooper at similar price tags. Dalvin Cook and Israel Abanikanda play backup roles with Dalvin’s role growing smaller as the season goes on (just 6% of the snaps last week and zero touches). I lean towards Abanikanda here assuming he can play, though he’s questionable with a knee injury and so might miss on a short week, opening up more work for Cook. Either way, these guys are thin punt options.

In the New York passing game, we will see Trevor Siemian at quarterback. The same Trevor Siemian, who despite attempting a whopping 49 passes against one of the league’s worst secondaries last week, only managed to put up 12.48 DK points. Fun! Siemian got a bit unlucky there, really. He’s no world-beater but he’s shown himself to be a respectable backup QB in his past, so while he isn’t a strong play, he isn’t someone I would just check off entirely (he’s no Nathan Peterman). We’ll see Garrett Wilson lead the way at wide receiver and then behind him is a bit questionable. Xavier Gipson will play a bunch, Allen Lazard’s role went from 90% of the snaps in Week 15 to 27% in Week 16, Randall Cobb has appeared and disappeared in small roles throughout the year, and Jason Brownlee played 82% of the snaps last week (a season high by a wide margin except for once when Lazard was injured). Wilson is obviously the main guy here along with Hall and is fine as a volume play despite the tough matchup. Wilson should see a ton of work here. He’s already averaging just over 10 targets per game, and while his ceiling is questionable (only two games over 20 DK points despite all that volume), he’s wildly talented and can get there purely on volume. After that things get real shaky. Gipson and Brownlee saw just two and three targets last week out of 49 pass attempts, good for a COMBINED ~10% target share. It’s almost impossible for an offense’s WR2 and WR3 to be on the field that much and see so few targets, so I have to think those target shares will increase, but will it happen this week? And to what level? I don’t know. Projection systems will have to give them higher target shares than that because that’s just how projections work, but just recognize these are very volatile players. I think I’d just max 1 all the Jets wide receivers not named Wilson and treat them all as pretty high-risk plays. 

At tight end, Tyler Conklin has been respectable for New York, averaging just over five targets and 37 yards per game (hey, on this offense that’s pretty good). He’s more of a floor than a ceiling play, but he has shown that it’s at least possible for him to reach double-digit DK points without scoring a touchdown as he’s done it four times this season. I’d prefer Conklin to the non-Wilson wide receivers. Behind Conklin, Jeremy Ruckert is injured, which will leave Kenny Yeboah as the TE2. He’s just $200, so he’s worthy of consideration, but on a terrible offense without a lot of volume to go around past the main guys, he’s real thin. 

Strategy Outlook

The way this game is likeliest to play out is for Cleveland to control it. Duh. But there are some tributaries here. We could see the Jets offense look more capable, as we did last week. We could also see the Jets defense force some turnovers, which seems more likely if the Browns allow Flacco to just keep chucking it 40+ times (remember he’s averaging 1.75 interceptions per game and that’s against much weaker defenses). We can also feel confident that the field is going to build for a Browns romp. I expect we’ll see a lot of 4 or 5 Browns rosters with a very heavily owned Cleveland DST, so that gives us some angles we can attack in order to get different.

Potential Scenarios

• Building for a Browns romp is totally reasonable. That’s the likeliest outcome, after all. If you want to go that route, just recognize that it’s going to be a very common construction, and so you’ll need to find some other way to differentiate your rosters.
• As always, underdog heavy rosters offer positive leverage in that they have a higher chance of succeeding than they are generally rostered at. Who wants to build a 4-2 Jets roster? Nobody . . . but it’s a sharp way to go.
• In Jets heavy rosters, you’re basically saying one of two things: one, that the Jets offense finds success here all on its own. Or, two, that the Jets defense holds up Cleveland, either by preventing them from scoring and/or by generating turnovers that lead to some easy New York points. I really want to be overweight on the Jets defense and kicker (short fields + a good opposing defense can easily = a lot of field goals) in my Jets-heavy builds. 

Cash Games

In cash games, my player pool consists of Flacco, Ford, Hall, Njoku, the kickers, and then Tillman if I need to dip down to a value play. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, my favorite overall captains are Ford, Njoku, and Hall in that order, but I also want to be overweight on Wilson, Cooper, and Tillman. 

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Off Script

Larejo >>

The NFL is scripted. Well, they wish they were. What they do want is for the biggest stars to shine on the brightest stage. Over the course of a season, this tends to happen. But in a one-game sample, anything can happen and we can exploit the edge for these off script outcomes.

Welcome to Week 17, where we get the Joe Flacco revenge game to kick things off between the Browns and the Jets. The Jets, as always at this time of year, have nothing to play for but are coming off a win against the Commanders and Sam Howell/Jacoby Brissett. The Browns, of course, are riding Flacco and the Amari Cooper blowup game after defeating a Stroud-less, Case Keenum/Davis Mills combination against the Texans last week. Great, two teams riding wins against two teams that played two combinations of quarterbacks in their last game. Good times!

The natural, comfortable thoughts that arise at first glance in this matchup is that Flacco and Co. should keep on cooking. The Jets will roll with Siemian once again and will try to ride Breece Hall (who frustratingly seized the touchdowns from Garrett Wilson last week) and Wilson to a victory once again on TNF. The defenses on both sides of this matchup are above league average, leading to the paltry 35-point expected total where we want to break down the expected and unexpected outcomes. Well, here’s the basics: the Browns passing offense feels secure, with Flacco going over 300 passing yards and 42 pass attempts in all four of his starts this season, alongside both Hall and Wilson for the Jets. Those are the comfortable plays (Flacco, Cooper, Njoku, Moore, Hall, Wilson) plus the defenses on both sides, with the Browns D likely to garner more ownership than the Jets unit. Of course, the DFS sites know this too so we have to find the pivots that will be lower-owned, and that’s where OWS comes in.

The Jets defense is ranked better against the pass than the run through Week 16, but this has been the result of a trend over the past few weeks as they’ve yielded five rushing TDs combined in the past two games (WAS, MIA). If this trend continues, Ford and Hunt become likelier to be leaned on, especially as home favorites in this spot. The Browns running unit (22nd DVOA) is the first pivot spot in this game, as going heavier on Hunt/Ford instead of Cooper/Njoku seems to make some sense. The two other plays I am seeing are the underrated Elijah Moore revenge game (remember, he requested a trade out of NY midway through last season) and the Jets offense through Siemian, one of Hall/Wilson, and another Jet.

The timing is perfect for Moore here, as he’s part of a unit in this game that should find success (Browns passing) but he hasn’t produced nearly as much as Cooper or Njoku lately. The Jets as a team, as seven-point underdogs could design or be forced into a pass-heavy game plan, and simply betting on Siemian to throw more passes in this game than Flacco is a fun angle too. A standard 4-2 Jets lineup with Moore and Flacco on the Browns plus the Jets side could be high leverage and leans into a Jets upset. Another possibility is building around the Browns running backs, along with Cooper/Njoku and Siemian plus Hall or Wilson in a 4-2 Browns build. Either route you choose, you can run with heavy Moore ownership, Jets-centric builds, or Browns backs for an off script build to take down a tournament.

Off Script Captains: Moore, Ford, Siemian

Off Script Builds: 4-2 Jets with Siemian CPT // 4-2 Browns with Moore or Ford CPT