The past week or so I’ve contemplated on what to write for my first post of the 2021 season (I’m disappointed I didn’t get to post this earlier). My mind just kept going back to last season. I’ve been so focused on other responsibilities that I didn’t really push JM and Aaron on having a place to post about how last year went, what we learned, and how we plan to get better this year. I’m posting that here so sorry this isn’t much about the game, but it’s definitely important that we reflect on how last year went.
Overall, I had a winning NFL season, but it could’ve been much better. Week 7 was my best week and I’ve thought a lot about why.
I’ve realized I’m the type of DFS player that likes to take in all the information which can leave me scrambling at the last minute. This can cause me to enter lineups in the wrong contest or accidentally leave a dummy lineup in. My best week came in a week where I had most of my lineups done on Saturday. I had time to really look at them as a whole Sunday morning and realized there was a game that I wanted more exposure too. This probably wouldn’t have happened if I didn’t have a good feeling about the lineups I had already made. I would’ve been scrambling to make last minute adjustments without being able to look at the slate as a whole and compare my lineups I had already built to what I though the field was going to do.
Even though I had been writing about player blocks all season, this slate had a ton of value with the 2 chalkiest players on the slate being RBs and a minimum salary TE that was also very much in play. I paid up at QB and WR (usually the opposite of a block) and down at RB and TE. I made two leverage plays, one that back-fired (even though I think the thinking behind it was correct) and one that worked. Both of the plays involved fading the two highest owned players on the slate, both RBs.
The play that cost me was playing Zach Moss at the same price as Jamaal Williams, who was 50% owned. Moss was getting goal line touches at the time and was playing against the Jets. The hope was Moss gets two goal line TDs and Williams doesn’t score any TDs. That play cost me getting 4th instead of 2nd and just .8 pts from a 3-max win.
The leverage play that helped me was not playing Alvin Kamara at 52% ownership. Half of the lineups in the field had Kamara and half of the lineups in the field had Jamaal Williams. I faded both which made my lineup much different than the field. Fading Kamara allowed me to play 4 high ceiling/high priced WRs in the same lineup (Hopkins, Lockett, Hill, and Adams), two of which were from the same game.
The take-away here is that this lineup came together Sunday morning because I had a full understanding of the slate and had time to really reflect on the lineups I had already built. I wasn’t in a hurry getting my lineups into DK and assigned to the proper contests. I knew I loved the game environment and felt I didn’t have enough exposure to this game.
Because I had time, had a good feeling on what the field was going to do, wasn’t rushed, and was happy with my other lineups, I could build a few more lineups with me pretty much knowing everything I was going to know at that point going into the slate and with a clear head. And because of that, I got creative and really tried to leverage the field.
One of my goals this season is to make sure my head is clear as we get closer to lock and not feel like I’m scrambling. Maybe I should give this meditation thing that Sonic always talks about a shot
I hope everyone has a great season and let’s learn from each other! FOOTBALL IS BACK!
@NUKE7350-I’ve always used FantasyLabs, even before OWS teamed up with them. But if you’re looking for something cheaper or free, someone may have one made in excel they could share with you. I would ask in our Discord if you haven’t already or maybe someone will chime in here.
The Cardinals come in as 6.5 pt favorites. The Eagles played well last game and it’s almost as they wanted Carson benched to see what they could do with Hurts after they knocked off the Saints. This block sets up well if the Cardinals play from in front and Edmonds is active. If Edmonds is inactive, Drake should see the vast majority of the work either way. The Eagles side could be successful through the run or pass with Hurts being able to run and Goedert being the pass catching pairing.
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // 15.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.02
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 76.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Goedert, Hurts, Drake)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,783
Jalen Hurts (8-12%)
>Seeing 17 rushing attempts last week and converting them into 106 yards with 30 pass attempts, Hurts will likely come in higher owned this week. Based on OWS projections, Hurts has the 6th highest ceiling but is just the 12th most expensive QB.
Kenyan Drake (10-12%)
>Drake scored 8 TDs in his last 8 games but has a timeshare with Chase Edmonds and Edmonds has looked like the better back at times. Edmonds is questionable and if he’s out, ownership will likely rise on Drake for good reason priced at just $5500.
Dallas Goedert (5-10%)
>The Eagles will likely be run heavy in this matchup so I want the guy who Hurts targeted the most. Goedert saw just 6 but has also seen at least 6 in the last 5 games.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This block sets up well for what Vegas is telling us which is also causing ownership to drive up on the chalkiest block I’ve wrote up all season. Goedert could come in lower owned then projected and if Edmonds is active, Drake’s ownership could also come in fairly low. Either way, I like Drake with the Cardinals currently sitting at 6.5 pt favorites. This game has a slim chance at shooting out but if it does, Hurts is likely playing well and will pay off his price tag. If it doesn’t, he should throw a few more time (30 attempts last week) and that should benefit the pairing of Hurts/Goedert.
The Bucs come into this one as 6 pt favorites and the game has the 6th highest total on the slate. Ronald Jones has had a tough week. Surgery and on the Covid list, he’s been ruled out. Also ruled out, and also a Jones, Julio is still dealing with his hammy. These two out lead to some value in a spot we know how the Falcons will attack.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Matt Ryan ($5.4k) // Leonard Fournette ($4.5k) // Russell Gage ($4.7k) = $14.6k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.6k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.64
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Fournette)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,900
Matt Ryan (sub 5%)
>Ryan has been shaky as of late but comes into this one the cheapest he’s been, well I’m not exactly sure. I looked back to the beginning of the 2018 season and couldn’t find him cheaper. He could push 40 pass attempts with the Bucs forcing opponents to the air and them trailing.
Leonard Fournette (10-14%)
>With Ronald Jones out, Fournette should be active this week and should so the field a lot. I’m slightly concerned that the touches will be spread out more evenly than what ownership and projects are indicating. That being said, Fournette has pass catching ability if the Bucs fall behind, goal line equity, and should see lead the backfield in touches.
Russell Gage (sub 5%)
>JM talked about Russell Gage on the Angles Pod and was in a block that failed last week even though Gage put up 18 DK pts with a passing TD! Lol! This week Julio’s out again and as JM also mentioned on the Angles Pod, and in the writeup above, Gage played out wide last week increasing his adot.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Every team in the league realizes the Bucs strength against the run and attacks them through the air. Matt Ryan has struggled as of late and this will be no easy test but he could push 40 pass attempts. He’s the cheapest he’s been in a really long time and Gage opens up a cheap value play to pair with him. I would expect the Falcons to be able to move the ball through the air but as they fall behind, they will need to quicken their pass. Fournette almost feels gamescript proof as he can catch passes and carry the load. The thing that’s going to cause him to fail is not being on the field and the tough matchup on the ground.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Matt Ryan ($5.4k) // Antonio Brown ($5.4k) // Russell Gage ($4.7k) = $15.5k
Matt Ryan ($5.4k) // Russell Gage ($4.7k) // Rob Gronkowski ($4.2k) = $14.3k
This game has a lowish total (45) but is projected to be close with the 49ers visiting Dallas as 3 pt favorites. Deebo Samuel has been ruled out, making this block viable.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Nick Mullens ($5.1k) // Brandon Aiyuk ($6.3k) // Michael Gallup ($3.5k) = $14.9k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.9k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 50.66
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 74.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Aiyuk)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5850
Nick Mullens (sub 5%)
>We’ve seen that Mullens can get it done based on his low price on a weekly basis, however, it’s rare when he does get it there and extremely hard to watch when he’s throwing picks/flirting with getting benched. In 9 games played this season, he has 3 solid, price-considered outings of 25 pts, 17 pts (against Seattle when he came in for Jimmy), 20 pts.
Brandon Aiyuk (8-12%)
>Aiyuk’s target counts have went ⬆️ every game that Samuel has missed and Aiyuk has played ( 3 // 8 // 10 // 14 // 16). There’s been a lot of talk surrounding him this week, but Mullens will probably be less than 3% owned, giving you some very low ownership in this block.
Michael Gallup (5-7%)
>Gallup is averaging 6 targets per game with Dalton under center which is ok at $3500 but is still doesn’t provide much floor considering he might only catch 3-5 of them. However, over the last 3 games with Dalton, he’s averaged 8.34 so we should expect around 5-7 catches which is solid at $3500.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We simply need Mullens and the 49ers offense to play well against a bad Dallas D ranked 27th in DVOA vs the rush and 23rd vs the pass. Being a 49ers fan, I’m always nervous when Mullens is throwing picks with the chance they bench him. However, he can move the offense down the field and Shanahan’s scheme allows for the 49ers playmakers to do the majority of the work after the catch. On the other side, the 49ers D has been fairly good, particularly against the run (7th rush DVOA). Hopefully, this forces Dallas to throw more with a spread out target share that can be hard predict on a weekly basis.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Andy Dalton ($5.4k) // Michael Gallup ($3.5k) // Amari Cooper ($6.4k) = $15.3k
The Seahawks D has allowed less points (or tied) in each game for 6 straight. It should be noted that their opponent quality has also arguably decreased in every game during that span as well but they aren’t as likely to get blown up by a bad offense as they were early on in the season. Here are their defensive pts allowed over their last 6 with oldest game listed 1st ::
I love when we get 2 game slates on Saturday. Instead of rushing after work to get home, adjust lineups, and put the Thursday night game on, not rush and watch both games start to finish, on a Saturday!
As X pointed out, Allen has 6 rushing TDs compared to 4 for both Singletary and Moss. If playing cash, I will try to get my Bills rushing exposure through Josh Allen and skip playing the Bills RB timeshare. I will also want exposure to this pass game with the Broncos depleted in the secondary. John Brown has been ruled out again leaving more opportunities for the rest of the pass catchers.
Cash is really going to come down to, if you play Josh Allen, are you going to play Aaron Jones? If you do, you will probably have to fade one of Diggs or Davante. If you play Rodgers, are you still going to play Aaron Jones? If you do, you won’t be able to play Diggs + Davante and feel ok about the rest of your lineup.
*Jaire Alexander never travels into the slot (just 18 snaps all season) which could make Samuel the safest play of Carolina’s 3 WRs.
*Denver wide receivers are all cheap but take a guess on who you should play. Here’s a look at the last 2 games:
Tim Patrick: $4.3k // 9 targets // 3 TDs on 3 RZ targets.
Jerry Jeudy: $3.9k // 8 targets // 0 TDs on 0 RZ targets.
KJ Hamler: $3.5k // 8 targets last 2 // 2 TDs on 0 RZ targets.
As it stands now, I’ll try to be have fairly even exposure on all 3 in GPPs. Patrick is coming in with the highest projection of the 3 but will also be higher owned.
*FantasyLabs currently has Cole Beasley as the biggest value on the slate (includes all non-qb positions).
I may come back later in the week to update my notes as there will be a couple updates to the projections in the meantime.
Austin Ekeler-$10.4K
>Ekeler will probably come in as the highest owned Captain and rightly so. It was reported by Schefter that Keenan Allen will be limited, if active at all, and Mike Williams has already been ruled out. Ekeler should see his opportunities rise as long has the offense can continue to move the ball without them. The Raiders rank last in run defense DVOA so the matchup is no worry. Labs has him projected as the highest ceiling behind only the QBs and the highest floor of anyone.
Justin Herbert-$11.8K
>Herbert’s lowest DK point totals have came in the last 2 games as they got throttled by the Patriots and held in check vs the Falcons. The thing that stuck out to me looking at his boxscore’s were 0 rushing attempts the past 2 weeks. On a 1 game slate, he still belongs in this category. The last time he faced the Raiders he had 26 DK pts. Hopefully, he will want to run more with his top 2 WRs out.
🚀 High Ceiling
Darren Waller-$9.4k
>Waller will also be one of the higher owned plays on this slate after his explosion 2 weeks ago and following it up with 10 targets last week. His floor is high in this spot and I thought about putting him in the category above.
Nelson Agholor-$7.4k
>Since week 4, or essentially since the week after he started playing a full-time role, Agholor has 7 of 9 games in the double digits, 3 of 9 with 20+ DK pts, and 6 TDs in 9 games. The Raiders will give Agholor shots and there could be 1 or 2 more with Ruggs out.
💰 Value Play
Bryan Edwards-$400 // Jalen Guyton $2.8k
> With Allen reportedly being limited, and Mike Williams already out, that doesn’t leave much for the Chargers and Ruggs has been ruled out for the Raiders. These guys should be on the field a lot with a boost to their opportunity share.
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game // Salary
Josh Allen-$12.2K
>Allen’s projected ceiling comes in 4 points higher than another player based on Fantasy Labs projections. He’s the only player to score in the upper 30’s multiple times, however, this is his toughest test of the season. His ability to rush solidifies his floor, making him the safest play in the game, with definite paths to failure against the best D in the league.
Diontae Johnson-$9K
>Adam Levitan often uses narratives on why QBs/pass catchers perform well together (#showernarrative #biblenarrative, etc). Whatever this narrative is, this one might be worth finding. Averaging 12.5 targets per game when healthy, he’s probably the safest play on the slate, price considered. The concern would be Tre’Davious White, PFF’s 14th best coverage grade.
🚀 High Ceiling
Ben Roethlisberger-$10.8k
>Roethlisberger surprisingly has only the 8th highest projected floor on FL. I think this is a mistake. For instance, Devin Singletary’s floor projects only .5 a points higher. The only thing I could think of would be the Steelers getting ahead by a ton but they pass at such a high rate that this doesn’t make much sense either. His ceiling his still projected 2nd highest behind Allen. Generally, on a showdown slate, upper tier QB’s ceilings are going to be the top 2 projected.
Others not mentioned below :: Diggs ($10k)
💰 Value Play
James Washington-$2.6k
>Washington’s snaps have been on the rise the last 3 weeks (21 // 24 // 38) and is hurting Claypool’s share (as X mentioned). Washington is 6.2k cheaper than Claypool but played more snaps last week. For Washington’s price and how much he’s on the field, he’s a descent play.
Benny Snell
>While Washington brings more ceiling at the lower salary range than Snell, Snell has seen about the same amount of targets and will also see carries.
↪️ Leverage Play:
Zack Moss
>As X pointed out, the matchup is terrible. However, Devin Singletary is projecting decent and if the fumble that limited Moss’ snaps last week was just a one game punishment, and his normal snap share return, Moss could be a good leverage off Singletary at a $1k savings.
Juju Schuster-$7k
>Priced $600 below Beasley ($2k below Diontae) and a median projection of just 1 point lower, Schuster should come in with much lower ownership after Beasley’s explosion last week. He has a steadier target count than Beasley::
Juju last 5 :: 10 // 9 // 5 // 13 // 7
Beasley’s 11 // 4 // 13 // 3 // 2
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game // Price
The Titans have the 3rd highest implied point and the game has the 3rd highest implied point total on the slate. With Henry projected to be highly owned, we’re running it back with Tannehill and Davis again.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Ryan Tannehill ($6.7k) // Corey Davis ($5.7k) // Tyler Eifert ($3.1k) = $15.5k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.5k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.7
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 77.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Davis)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,750
Ryan Tannehill (5-8%)
>Tannehill has been limited by volume this year. On the other side, the Jags have remarkably been able to stay in the 2 games with Glennon under center. In this scenario, we could see Tannehill attempt a higher than expected amount on passes.
Corey Davis (8-12%)
>Davis has been pretty consistent for his price tag this season and showed last week, has the potential to explode. He’s priced up this week, however,the matchup is excellent with the Jags ranking 31st in pass DVOA.
Tyler Eifert (sub 5%)
>With Glennon under center, Eifert saw 6 targets last week and scored the week before. If you’re not paying all the way up at TE, Eifert is a good play that fits building around this game.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The Jags need to be able keep Henry out of the endzone and force the Titans to throw. Tannehill starts feeding Davis again (12 targets last week). While Eifert sees his targets and Glennon manages a few drives into the RZ and looks Eifert’s way.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Mike Glennon ($5.1k) // James Robinson ($7.5k) // Tyler Eifer ($3.1k) = $15.7k
Mike Glennon ($5.1k) // Laviska Shenault ($4.1k) // Corey Davis ($5.7k) = $14.9k
The Falcons come into this game with the 6th highest implied total on the slate, a QB priced in the lower end of salaries, and Julio Jones already ruled out. The Chargers got absolutely smoked by the Patriots last week and I would expect them to bounce back. These two teams average the most combined plays on the slate and have a close spread at 2.5 points, which could turn into back-and-forth, uptempo game.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Matt Ryan ($5.7k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k) // Hunter Henry ($4.4k) = $14.6k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.6k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.64
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,900
Matt Ryan (sub 5-7%)
>One of the cheaper QBs on the slate that has a chance to hit the 300 yard bonus almost every week. His chances of that are decreased a little with Julio out of the lineup. The Falcons are projected to win, which means Ryan should be able to move the ball at some point or another.
Russell Gage (sub 5%)
>Gage’s snap count wont change much with Julio out. He’s on the field the majority of the time already but his target volume could tilt toward the higher end due to Julio’s absence. Gage has seen a wide range of targets the past 4 weeks ranging from 5-12.
Hunter Henry (5-7%)
>Henry saw his lowest target count of the season last week. The previous 4 games, he saw 6 RZ looks.
JM noted this about TEs vs the Falcons D :
A. 31st in success rate allowed to the TE
B. 8th most yards allowed in spite of ranking 16th in targets faced;
C. The 2nd most TE TDs allowed
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This game is projected to be close and on the other side of this QB/WR stack, we have an expensive QB with a team that can put up points. Combined plays of the two teams is the most on the slate which increases Ryan’s chances off 40+ attempts which is what we are hoping for (3 times he’s surpassed this mark on the season going for 27, 36, 21 pts). Gage’s target opportunity should increase along with this. On the other side, Henry needs to return to seeing at least 1 or 2 RZ looks, racking up targets as the game shoots out.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Matt Ryan ($5.7k) // Mike Williams ($4.7k) // Hayden Hurst ($4.7k) = $14.1k
Matt Ryan ($5.7k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k) // Mike Williams ($4.7k) = $14.9k
The 2nd from the lowest total game on the slate, not usually the place I try to find a block, but there is potential here based on the players prices and their chances at a 20+ pt game. The Cowboys are coming off a game in which they were trailing and threw 48 times, and although thy are projected to be leading, both of these teams turn the ball over at a high rate, and which could lead to the crazy environment we like for DFS.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Andy Dalton ($5.5k) // Michael Gallup ($3.8k) // Tyler Boyd ($4.9k) = $14.2k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14.2k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 48.28
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 71
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,967
Andy Dalton (sub 5%)
>The Cowboys fell behind last week which forced Dalton to attempt 48 passes. For Dalton to be effective, he needs to get help from his offensive line, who have been plagued by injuries this season. This matchup is the best Dalton has faced in his few starts this season in terms of pass DVOA, with the Bengals ranking 28th.
Michael Gallup (sub 5%)
>Gallup has seen 19 targets over the past 2 weeks and is priced at just $3.8k. If he sees 5-8 targets this week, he would likely need a TD to hit a ceiling game of 20+ DK pts but 12-15 pts would be enough to keep your lineup alive.
Tyler Boyd (sub 5%)
>Last week, we saw Boyd rip off a 72 yard TD on a one yard out route. This week we hope for more quick throws to Boyd to get the ball in his hands. Opportunities have been limited with Allen at QB but in his price range, he still has one of the biggest ceilings, even in a low total game.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
There is a lot of perceived value in this game, meaning the players who have a chance 20+ pt games are cheap, but the overall game flow could be slow, with a slight chance it could shoot-out. In order for this to happen, we need 2 situations to take place. The Cowboys to start out with empty possessions or TOs early on, like they have been accustomed to this season, letting the Bengals stay in the game or take a lead. And, the Bengals run heavy approach to fail, forcing them to throw, while getting the ball in the hands of their play-making pass catchers on quick, easy throws, particularly to Boyd. Both teams have turned the ball over at a high-rate this season which could set up short-fields for the opposing offenses.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Andy Dalton ($5.5k) // CeeDee Lamb ($4.8k) // Michael Gallup ($3.8k) = $14.1k
Andy Dalton ($5.5k) // Giovani Bernard ($5k) // Michael Gallup ($3.8k) = $14.3k
Last week I wrote up a block and posted on Saturday morning. It went for 5.89x its salary, the biggest of the season off of the top of my head. However, because Firkser only went for 10 pts and took up a roster spot, there was no way to reach the top of the big Milly this week, even if you used Waller in the flex.
Here’s the breakdown of the block ::
Ryan Tannehill ($6.2k) // Corey Davis ($5.1k) // Anthony Firkser ($2.5k)=$13.8k
💵 14.5k or less :: Yes // $13.8k ✅
↔ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 46.92 // Actual = 79.9 ✅
🚀 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 60 // Actual = 79.9 ✅
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No // Tannehill (8.35%), Davis (8.59%), Firkser (32.45%) ❌
🏈 Non QBs in pass catching role :: Yes ✅
The big Milly winning lineup scored 258.44 pts. The highest scoring lineup I could find had Waller in the flex and scored 251.3 pts. Here’s a link to a picture of this lineup ::
So although this particular player block wouldn’t have been quite good enough this week, we’ve been able to find one every other week so far.
Let’s find another monster that is good enough to take down everything this week! I would encourage other people to look for blocks of their own and post in collective breaking down why they think the Block is a good play! On to Week 14 already! Let’s go OWS!
The Ravens come into this one as 7.5 pt favorites and are facing a Cowboys team that allows 156 yards/game on the ground (most in the nfl). They’ve also allowed 100 yd rusher in 4 of their last 6 games. Meanwhile, the Ravens gain the 2nd most yards/game on the ground at 157.6 (124.3 over their last 3).
Other notes ::
>Ezekiel Elliott has lost 5 fumbles on the year while the Ravens lead the league with 21 forced fumbles.
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Lamar Jackson-$11.6K
>In 10 games played this year, Lamar has failed to reach 20 DK pts in 6 of them. Even with his struggles this season, Lamar still has the ceiling in this matchup. Fantasylabs has his ceiling 5 pts higher than the next closest (Dalton). There are 3 players who Labs projects with a higher floor, but the 2 of those players are within 1 pt.
Andy Dalton-$10k
>The Cowboys are expected to be trailing in this one and although the Ravens play at a slow pace (30.63 sec/play on offense, slowest in the league), the Cowboys are still one of the fastest (25.54, 2nd fastest) and are likely to be trailing. Dalton should clear 30 pass attempts easily and should push 40, if projected game script holds true.
🚀 High Floor
JK Dobbins-$8.6k
>Dobbins should lead the Ravens in carries and RB targets in a game they should be leading throughout. Dobbins currently has the 2nd highest projected ceiling on Labs.
Zeke Elliott-10.2k
>Zeke’s price has dropped a bit, but so has his efficiency and volume without Zeke. I will probably have a hard time playing him a lot only due to the likely game script.
💰 Value Play
Dez Bryant-$1k
>The Ravens seem to have a lot of value on their side of the ball with Andrews and Snead out, and Lamar back. Dez should be more involved this week.
Devin Duvernay-$800
>Willie Snead will miss again and last week Duvernay played almost every snap, seeing 3 targets. HIs target count didn’t really change much last week but the Ravens only played 45 snaps (on a target per snap basis, it probably increased a little) with RG3.
Luke Wilson-$1.8k
>With Mark Andrew out, Wilson should be on the field almost the entire game. Last week with no Andrews, Wilson played 37/45 snaps. He’s just $1.8k and could see 3-5 targets.
The Jaguars are 10.5 pt dogs in the 2nd highest total game on the slate meaning the Vikings should be ahead the whole game, forcing the Jags to throw more than they want to (I forgot how long this guys next really is 🦒!). Glennon performed ok last week on 35 pass attempts and we should expect this number to be the same or higher this week. They are projected at just under 3 TDs.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Mike Glennon ($4.8k) // Keelan Cole ($3.8k) // DJ Chark ($5.4k) = $14k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 47.6
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 70
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6,000
Mike Glennon (sub 5%)
>Last week, Glennon exceeded his salary expectations, going for 18 DK points (3.91x) against the Browns (23rd pass DVOA). This week he gets a tougher test against the Vikings (11th pass DVOA) but will get DJ Chark, who’s returning after missing last week. Glennon attempted 35 passes last week in a close game and I would expect them to be trailing most of the way in this game.
Keelan Cole (sub 5%)
> Cole’s targets have been anywhere in the 2-9 range but he’s had at least two in every game. Priced where he is (3.8k), and having the potential for 20 DK points (2 games this season), give him value, if building around this game or as a one off piece.
DJ Chark (sub 5%)
>Chark has been very inconsistent this year but has posted a 30+ point game and another at 29. His price has dropped from the lower 6k range to start the year as a result of this. Glennon definitely hurts his chances of a ceiling game but the volume should be there for him in a game they should be trailing.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
As mentioned above, the Jags are 10.5 dogs, in the 2nd highest total game of the week. Glennon attempted 35 passes last week in a game that was back and forth until the majority of the 4th quarter. We could see Glennon attempting 40+ passes in this spot. If the Jags get behind, they will throw. If they above their Vegas expectation, it’s obviously good too. If the TDs go through Chark and Cole instead of Robinson (projected from 10-25% owned), its Yahtzee!
After a negative covid test (but felt like crap for a few days) and a crazy Thanksgiving week, Building Blocks are back!
Last week, cheap, low-owned blocks where hard to come by. You pretty much needed Mahomes and Tyreek (+ Henry) to win anything. The Milly Maker winner scored 246.68 points with a Mahomes/Tyreek stack with no run back. This being said, we can usually find a cheaper QB or two with pass catchers in the same game, to challenge the winning Milly Lineup.
I look at every game, after the fact, to find blocks. It was scarce last week. The first place I looked was the Dolphins, knowing that Fitz had a good game, but the only other player in that game that smashed was Devante Parker.
Usually, the Vikings aren’t a team that would produce blocks because their volume is so condensed with players who are usually priced too high or highly owned. This week, we had 3 pass catchers on the Vikings expected to play more than normal with Thielen and Irv Smith out. Just for a quick visual, here is the Vikings pts/$ vs their actual ownership in the Milly ::
Dalvin Cook 42.95% // 1.18x
Justin Jefferson 22.56% // 4.13x
Kyle Rudolph 14.1%. // 4.92x
Kirk Cousins 1.35% // 4.95x
Chad Beebe .31% // 6.1x
Bisi Johnson .38% // 5.47x
To put this in perspective, nearly 80% 👀 of lineups contained at least 1 of Cook, Jefferson, and Rudolph while only 2% contained at least 1 of Cousins, Johnson, or Beebe.
I built a lineup with Cousins, just 1 of Johnson and Beebe (no way anyone would have played Johnson and Beebe together) and ran it back with Robby Anderson. The Block of Cousins // Beebe // Anderson went for 67.9 pts or 4.47x keeping the lineup on pace for 223.36 pts.
The lineup I built contains a mini stack with James Robinson and Jarvis Landry (Robinson can hit whether JAX is trailing or ahead so this would have been more of a bet that the game shoots out vs the Jags playing from ahead). It’s also correlated with the Henry and Titans D. This lineup would have scored 261.1 pts, winning the Milly by 14 pts while also leaving $800 in salary on the table (it was actually hard to find a lineup using close to the full $50k surrounding this block).
Here’s a lineup that could have won you $1 Million building around the Vikings/Panthers game…
As JM mentioned, this game is one of the most attractive spots on an ugly slate. It’s tied for the 2nd highest total on the slate and also has the smallest line of the high total games at 3.5. This block is built around the game being close, playing the lower owned Rivers in a good spot, and living up to its high total this week.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Philip Rivers ($5.9k) // Keke Coutee ($3.5k) // Michael Pittman ($4.9k) = $14.3k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // 14.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 48.62
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 71.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Coutee?)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,950
Philip Rivers (sub 5%)
>Rivers’ attempt volume has increased over the past 4 weeks with attempt counts of 42 // 36 // 39 // 42.
Keke Coutee (sub 5%)
> With will Fuller gone for 6 games and Randall Cobb out, Coutee will see more opportunity in a game the Texans could be trailing. At just $3500, Coutee wasn’t priced up for his upcoming, expanded role and should see more than what he’s gotten the last 2 weeks (3 // 4).
Michael Pittman (sub 5%)
>In Pittman’s last 3 of 4 games he’s seen at least 7 targets which is saying something on an offense that likes to spread the ball around as much as the Colts do. You could really put any Colts pass catcher in this spot including Trey Burton.
*If this game were last week, Nyheim Hines would be substituted here, but Jonathan Taylor back this week concerns me a little bit. I may pair Rivers // Hines in a couple lineups and also hedge those with a few Watson // Taylor lineups, building 6 or so lineups with this game in mind if building 25-30 lineups.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
For this block to work, we need the Texans to play well on offense and keep this game around 3 points (like the line suggests). Ideally, the Colts get in a spot at the end of the 1st half and end of the game where they are trying to score through the air and are in a no huddle/hurry up situation. This will probably be different from how the majority of stacks are built surrounding this game (Watson/Cooks or Coutee ran back with one of Taylor/Hines/Colts pass catcher).
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Deshaun Watson ($7.5k) // Keke Coutee ($3.5k) // Trey Burton ($3.5k) = $14.5k
*Trey Burton has seen a RZ target in each of his last 7 games, catching 6 of 8, and 3 TDs.
On an ugly slate, this game sets up as Vegas’ highest implied point total (53.5). The line shows the Titans currently favored by 5.5. We’re hoping the Titans open fast with the TDs coming through the air while the Browns are forced to catch up and throw more than they want.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Ryan Tannehill ($6.2k) // Corey Davis ($5.1k) // Anthony Firkser ($2.5kk) = $13.8k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // 13.8k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 46.92
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 69
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Firkser)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6,033
Ryan Tannehill (5-7%)
>Tannehill has seen low volume this year due to the Titans running the ball so much (I would too if I had Derick Henry) so Tannehill will likely need to be efficient and have the Browns stay in the game to pay off. He’s only went for 20+ in 4 games this year (2 over 30) but on a slate this ugly, 25 points may get you there.
Corey Davis (sub 5%)
>Corey Davis has shown bright spots on the year and will likely see much lower ownership than AJ Brown (who’s price is pretty high considering how efficient he needs to be to pay off). Davis has surprisingly reached double digit DK points in every game he’s played this year (8).
Anthony Firkser (15-20%)
>With Jonnu Smith out, Firkser will be the starting TE. Although he could be limited by volume, Firkser is the bare minimum price and likely won’t matter much to the overall lineup if he fails (anything over 7-10 pts is huge!)
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We’re hoping the Browns get up in this game or at least keep it within a field goal for as long as possible which would force the Titans to throw. Tannehill and the pass catchers steal the TDs away from the Big Dawg. Tannehill throws three TDs and two of those are to the combo of Firkser and Davis.
The Broncos are coming in with either a banged-up Drew Lock or Drew Rypien. As the week goes on, Lock has been taking reps. Either way, the Dolphins are in a good spot and should continue to get good play out of their defense, setting the offense up for short fields and scoring opportunities.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Tua Tagovailoa ($5.8k) // DeVante Parker ($5.7k) // Jakeem Grant ($3.5k) = $15k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 51
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 75
7️⃣ %owned or less :: No (Parker)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5833
Tua Tagovailoa (sub 5%)
>The Dolphins D has been playing great and making it easy on Tua. As Hilow mentions, the Dolphins are running a very low amount of offensive snaps. Part of the reason, has been the D setting them up with short fields. We are hoping this game is a little faster-paced and Tua is asked to throw more than his 22-28 times in his 1st three starts.
DeVante Parker (sub 5%)
>Parker has seen 7 targets in each of the last 2, but hasn’t been able to much with them, reaching 20 DK pts in just one game this season. Last week, he was 12% owned in the Milly Maker so maybe this week he will be a little lower-owned, coming of another dud.
Jakeem Grant (sub 5%)
>With Preston Williams being sent to IR, Grant played 75% of the offensive snaps and will continue to play opposite of Parker. Not only did he play a bunch last week, he performed, grading as PFF’s highest player on Miami’s offensive side of the ball and catching 4 of 5 targets with a score.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Drew Lock has been taking a few reps in practice and if he can’t go, Brett Rypien would get another shot at starting. Either way, things should be easy on Tua again with the Miami D likely creating a few turnovers and extra opportunities. We just hope the defense doesn’t score, which they have done a good job at this season. If the Broncos play well, it might be even better for Tua, who’s been held back with low volume.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Tua Tagovailoa ($5.8k) // Salvon Ahmed ($4.8k) // Jakeem Grant ($3.5k) = $14.1k
Salvon Ahmen ($4.8k) // Jakeem Grant ($3.5k) // Miami D ($3.4k) = $11.7k
It’s hard to predict how either of these teams will perform on a week-to-week basis but Vegas has the Browns as a 3-point favorite which would probably be even on a neutral field. This should be a close game with both teams taking the lead throughout. The Browns will lean on the run and the Eagles will do a little of both. This game could get sloppy which can be a good thing if we are looking for usable DFS scores.
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $13.8k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 46.92
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 69
7️⃣ %owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6033
Carson Wentz (sub 5%)
>Sure, Wentz and the Eagles have struggled this season, but the Eagles are likely going to be trailing and should be forced to throw. His surrounding players are all affordable and if we skip the past two weeks and look at the 2 weeks prior, Wentz had back to back 30 pt games.
Jalen Reagor (sub 5%)
>After missing 5 games, Reagor has seen an 81% snap share and 13 targets in his 2 games back. Let’s hope the rookie continues to see a ton of playing time and Wentz continues to target him more and more.
Richard Rodgers (sub 5%)
>The Eagles TE situations have been hard to figure out this year. It always seems that whenever they’re in a good spot, the work goes to the #2 TE. Last week, we saw Goedert get 6 targets and Rodgers 5, but Goedert left the field for a bit and his targets didn’t come until late in the game. Because this seems like a toss-up every week, the field likely having some ownership on Goedert (Goedert currently has the 3rd highest median projection on FL and will likely pop in the opto), give me the cheaper, unowned guy.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Wentz just needs to play well, avoiding sacks and turnovers. The Browns are a team that the Eagles should be able to move the ball on (Browns rank 20th against the pass and 18th against the run). Wentz needs to avoid sacks and turnovers while using his legs to pick up a few additional DK points along the way. The Eagles got embarrassed last week in a divisional loss to the Giants in a game where the Eagles were favored. If this game gets to a situation where the Eagles come out playing well, it could force the Browns to have air it out a little bit. This could lead to additional possessions and short fields for the Eagles coming from Mayfield turnovers.
This divisional matchup is tied for the highest total on the slate (51) and the Saints are projected with the 2nd highest implied point total, even with no Brees and the Winston/Hill combo at QB. This sets up for the Falcons to either get short fields with a struggling QB on the other side or them to fall behind and forced to throw.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Matt Ryan ($6.3k) // Emmanuel Sanders ($4.9k) // Hayden Hurst ($4.4k) = $15.6k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // 15.6k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 53.04
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 78
7️⃣ %owned or less :: No (Ryan, Hurst?)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,733
Matt Ryan (sub 7-10%)
>Ryan reached the 300-yard bonus in 2 of his last 4 and in the other two, he had 281 and 284 yards. He’s been close when he hasn’t gotten there and should have his 3 main weapons together if Ridley makes it back.
Emmanuel Sanders (sub 5%)
>With all the attention surrounding Kamara’s injury, the QB situation, and the question surrounding the lack of volume for MT, Sanders could come in pretty low-owned. The Saints have the 2nd highest implied point total on the slate. If the Saints play well with their backup QB, then Sanders has a chance to put up points. If the Saints fall behind, they will be forced to throw more.
Hayden Hurst (7-10%)
>Hurst has quietly been one of the better TEs this year seeing at least 6 targets in 7 games. He’s also been the highest correlated player with Matt Ryan this season. Matt Ryan has had 5 games above 21 DK pts. Hurst’s points in those games :: 13.2 / 12.8 / 15.7 / 18.2 / 6.8. In all but one of Ryan’s solid games, Hurst has also had a solid game.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This really should set up well for the Falcons as long as they don’t fall too far behind. If the Saints QB situation turns south for the Saints, the Falcons could get setup with short fields. I really have a hard time believing the Saints will be able to pull away. If the Saints do get in front, it will lead to the Falcons having throw more. The Saints have the 2nd highest point total so hopefully the Saints can move the ball with some volume going to Sanders.
The Colts come into this game as 2.5-point favorites after opening just 1. This might be due to the Packers struggles last week against the Jags, the Colts big win over the Titans, and the Colts have one of the best defenses in the league. The Colts will still be expected to have to put up some points and Rivers should be able to move the ball against the Packers 21st ranked defense.
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 53.55
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 76.5
7️⃣ %owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,783
Phillip Rivers (sub 5%)
>Rivers has this offense playing pretty good, scoring 31+ in their last 3 of 4 (with the other coming against the Ravens). He’s been able to get the ball out quick, racking up 300+ yds in 2 of his last 4, however, Rivers production is largely dependent on throwing TDs.
Nyheim Hines (sub 5%)
>Hines surprisingly saw 12 carries last week, getting into the endzone on one. He was also within his usual target range, seeing 6, and getting one of those home. The Colts show that they like using Hines in the redzone, getting 20 total touches and targets. (he’s seen 9 touches and targets inside the 10 this season, thanks Ian).
Michael Pittman (5-7%)
>Although Rivers spreads the ball around, Pittman has 15 targets the last two games, hitting the 100 yard bonus last week. You could substitute Hilton, Pascal, or MVS as well, and all for cheaper.
*Note-It’s still uncertain if Jaire Alexander will play.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We should keep in mind that the Packers have one of the best offenses in football that is starting to get its core pieces back together. We need the Packers to overcome the to the Colts D here, keeping the game competitive, with the Packers even taking the lead at times throughout the game. The Colts must be able to move the ball, preferably through the air, and with Hynes on the field more than the other backs.
This game is projected to be somewhat close, with the line showing the Patriots favored by 2.5 and a rising total from 47 to 49 (3rd highest on slate). The Patriots have played well their last 2 games, being able to effectively run the ball and move it through the air, with Jakobi Meyers emerging as a reliable target for Cam Newton. This block is built around this continuing for the Patriots while the Texans being able to move the ball through the air against a 30th pass ranked Patriots D.
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.7k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.98
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Meyers)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,883
Cam Newton (5-7%)
>Anytime the Patriots get inside the 10 yard line, Cam is a threat to run it in. He has 9 rushing TDs on the year and thanks to Ian, 19 attempts inside the 10-yard line. Newton isn’t very effective through the air but his new, emerging receiver, Jakobi Meyers has proven to be Cam’s preferred target. Meyers has helped them get into position to score which is what Cam needs in order to pay off.
Jakobi Meyers (7-10%)
>Newton has locked on to Myers, who is seeing a 32% target share the past 4 weeks (9.25 per game), and despite Cam’s lack of passing volume, a target share that big is still worth noting. Meyers has also proven to be reliable and come up big when Cam needs him to, which can not be said for any of the remaining Patriots WRs.
Randall Cobb (sub 5%)
>A bottom piece for sure, Cobb has a floor of 3 targets and a ceiling of about 8. He really needs to score to truly pay off but The Texans are projected to play from behind in this one so there may be a few additional looks for Cobb.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The line is projected to be close and the Patriots playing well the last two games, has caused the total to rise. We need the Patriots to continue to play well with some of the production coming through Cam and Meyers. With the Texans likely playing from behind, the hope is that Watson begins to throw and Cobb sees the upper-end of his 3-8 target range, while the Texans run game continues to be ineffective.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Cam Newton ($6.2k) // Jakobi Meyers ($4.9k) // Rex Burkhead ($4.6k) = $15.7k
Week 10 was kind of disappointing, especially surrounding Building Blocks. The only game that really provided value if trying to build around a QB and two pass catchers was the Det/Was game. Several of the Lions had a good point per dollar value including Matthew Stafford. The highest scoring block that came out of this game was more expensive than we typically talk about but with nothing else really popping below this total salary, I’ll break it down ::
Matthew Stafford-$5.8k // D’Andre Swift-$5.1k// Marvin Jones-$5.2k = 72.5pts
This block was good enough for 4.5x and would of kept you on pace for 225 pts. This pace would have been enough to win the Milly Maker and like last week, I’ve went into FantasyLabs and built a highly correlated lineup with plays that were low-owned, but not completely crazy. Here’s what I came up with ::
You’ll notice that the lineup contains the block mentioned above, running it back with Logan Thomas, giving it a cheap, low owned game stack. Next, we have a mini game stack with Hopkins on one side and Beasley on the other. Kamara is paired with his defense and the only other player not correlated in some way is Josh Jacobs who was a low-owned, 3 pt. home favorite. Overall this lineup scored 220.1 points which would have won the Milly by 1.6pts.
Enough on last week. Let’s take a look at the next, weird, upcoming Week 11 slate.
Notable QBs not on Week 11 slate ::
Russell Wilson
Kyler Murray
Patrick Mahomes
Jared Goff
Tom Brady
Josh Allen
This leaves us with the struggling Lamar Jackson up against a middling Titans defense. Aaron Rodgers against the tuff Colts D. The rest of the QBs are priced $6800 and below, so we will most likely be playing a few cheaper QBs. We still are trying to find game environments that might be overlooked, we are comfortable building around, and have the potential to shoot out. I will update the games I have write ups for, here, to make them easier to find.
*Blocks posted in ATL/NO, NE/HOU, PHI/CLE, MIA/DEN and GB/IND games!
Another tough divisional game for the Seahawks ahead. They have lost their last 3 of 4 games. It seems every year Seattle comes out looking like one of the top tier teams in the league, then they sputter out for part of the season. These teams put 71 points on the board in a Week 7 overtime clash. It’s important to note, we always think that the other team has to erupt for the Seahawks to go off, but teams have been somewhat able to play with them and play from in front lately. If we are expecting another shootout, we need Seattle to bounce back and play well against the up-tempo Cardinals.
↔🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Kyler Murray-$13K
>Murray is averaging 31.04 DK pts per game. To put that in perspective, Lamar Jackson averaged 28.65 DK points per game in the regular season last year and we thought that was unbelievable. Murray has been unbelievable this season. He’s pretty pricey but as of Tuesday, has the highest projected floor, median, and ceiling on FantasyLabs. Murray and Wilson also come in as the highest pt/dollar plays among the high salary studs.
🚀 High Ceiling
Russell Wilson-$11.8k
>Coming off his first dud game of the season, Wilson’s efficiency has taken a hit lately throwing 7 picks in his last 3 games. He’s also taken 11 sacks the past 2 games leading to tough situations and stalled drives. It’s also worth noting Wilson could be behind a 3rd string center who’s not listed as a center and has taken no snaps at center this season. Kyle Fuller’s status (high ankle sprain) should be monitored. That being said, Wilson always has a high ceiling and Wilson’s mobility allows this offense to get Wilson on the move if needed.
Tyler Lockett-$9.4k
>Coach Carroll said that Lockett has a “bit of a knee sprain” so this is something to monitor after Lockett absolutely torched the Cardinals in Week 7. On 20 (yes, 20!) targets, Lockett went 15 // 200 // 3TD. Patrick Peterson was mostly on DK Metcalf limiting him to just 2 // 23 on 5 targets but Wilson clearly was avoiding throwing to DK. It was also said on the week 7 broadcast that Dre Kirkpatrick, who Lockett did his majority of damage against, was having issues changing directions due to an ankle injury, but If Lockett gets fully healthy and Peterson shadows Metcalf, this could be another eruption spot.
DK Metcalf-$10.2k
>Metcalf obviously has a big ceiling every game, but I want to be heavier on whoever Patrick Peterson isn’t covering and I would expect Peterson to shadow Metcalf again. On Metcalf’s five targets in their previous matchup, one was a throwaway and another led to one of Wilson’s three picks. It’s clear that Wilson has been avoiding DK when a top tier corner is matched up with him.
DeAndre Hopkins-$10.8k
>Hopkins has been very much boom or bust the past 5 games ( 28.7pts/12tgts, 6pts/3tgts, 28.3pts/12tgts, 9.3pts/8tgts, 28.10pts/7tgts) but I would doubt Murray will shy away from Hopkins after last week’s “Hail Murray” and Hopkins roasting the Seahawks Week 7.
💰 Value Play
Larry Fitz-$4.4k
>The corpse of Fitzgerald saw 8 targets against the Seahawks poor secondary week 7 and he’s seen five each of the last two. Just $400 and $200 more than the kicker, Fitz will likely be lower owned and could see 5-8 targets again.
↩️ Leverage Play
*Update Carson Doubtful! Chris Carson-$8.4k
>There’s been a lot of talk about Seattle needing to get back to the run game after Wilson had a three-interception game last week. It makes a lot of sense with them getting Carson back after he left the game early last time around vs the Cardinals and ended up missing the next three games. You could go spend salary on the Cardinals passing game and take Carson who could see a lot of Seattle work and also vulture TDs at a lower price compared to the other Seattle studs.
The Browns currently sit as a 3.5 pt favorite with the total opening fairly high (54) but has since been bet down to 49. Baker Mayfield was on the COVID list but has been cleared and should suit up.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Deshaun Watson ($6.9k) // Duke Johnson ($5k) // Jordan Atkins ($2.9k) = $14.8k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.8k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 50.32
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 74
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No, Johnson/Watson
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,867
Deshaun Watson (%)
>Watson has been on a roll, scoring 24 + DK points in his last 4. He has finally started to rush a little more with 17 attempts for 88 yards his last 2, boosting his floor.
Duke Johnson (%)
>David Johnson is looking like he won’t suit up after going into concussion protocol and leaving the game early last week. Duke played on 52/64 snaps with David out, carrying 16 times and catching all 4 of his targets.
Jordan Akins (sub 5%)
> Akins has out targeted Darren Fells in each of the last 3 games and is only $2900. If your punting at TE and want correlation with Watson and this game, Akins is an option. On the other side, Harrison Bryant is just $100 more and could be substituted for Akins.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This game will likely be close throughout as I have a hard time seeing the Browns pull away, but if they do, this block can still hit as Watson is great in catch up mode.
These division rivals boast the 2nd highest total on the week with an interesting line, having the Rams favored by 2 points. These teams combine to run the 3rd most combined plays on the week. It’s rare that we can get a block as cheap as this with a top tier QB in it. The WR plays maybe a little thin, but this is a way to get leverage off the field while attacking the popular spot. If the line holds true with the Rams being competitive and actually leading, this sets up for another #LetRussCook spot.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Russell Wilson ($7.7k) // David Moore ($3.4k) // Josh Reynolds ($3.5k) = $14.6k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.6k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.64
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No, Wilson
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5900
Russell Wilson (10-15%)
>Wilson has 3 games this season with 40 + pass attempts this season. In those games he went for 29.1 // 35.92 // 39.8 DK pts. If the Rams live up to the spread and the Seahawks are trailing, we should see another high attempt game from Wilson.
Josh Reynolds (sub 5%)
>Reynolds has been on the field for 70% of the Rams snaps the last 3 weeks. He’s been seeing volume during that stretch as well averaging 7.34 targets and cashing in on 2 TDs. With the amount of opportunities Reynolds is seeing, the high total, and his low price, Reynolds should be considered if wanting leverage in this spot.
David Moore (sub 5%)
>The Seahawks love to throw TD shots to Moore. He doesn’t play a ton but has 4 TDs in 7 games played. It’s rare to find a guy priced at $3.4k who’s paired with the best QB in the league, has TDs in 57% of his games, and is in the 2nd highest total of the week. Moore is also worth some shots.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Ideally, the Rams get off to a fast start and get out to a lead. This would spike Wilson’s pass volume leading to more opportunities for Moore. It would also mean the Rams put points up and hopefully some of that production flows through Reynolds. The thing we don’t want, is a low scoring, close game in which Carroll decides they have been throwing too much with it getting later in the season and the Seahawks losing the last 2 of 3.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Jared Goff ($6.5k) // Josh Reynolds ($3.5k) // David Moore ($3.4k) = $13.4
Broncos @ Raiders opened as the 3rd highest total on the slate at 51 and it has stayed in the same spot so far. The spread favors the Raiders by -5 points so the Broncos offense should see increased pass volume once again. This game is appealing because it offers a lot of value, has a decent total, and could be overlooked by the field.
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.9k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 50.66
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 74.5
7️⃣ owned or less :: No, Jeudy
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,850
Drew Lock (sub 5%)
>Lock continues to impress in garbage time and threw a career high 48 times last week. This makes it 3 weeks in a row with 40+ attempts. They’ve gotten down the previous 2 weeks and Lock has been able to bring the team back late in the game, racking up stats along the way.
Jerry Jeudy (sub 5%)
>Jeudy had a bit of a coming out party last week converting a whopping 14 targets into 7 / 125 yds / 1TD line. He’s coming off his back to back games with double digit targets, his only double digit target games of the season, but did see target counts of 8 // 7 // 9 to start the season.
KJ Hamler (sub 5%)
>Hamler also saw double digit targets and has been on the field a ton (78% of snaps last 2 weeks) and at just $3.8k, makes this block affordable, with Lock and Jeudy’s price rising after last week.
*Note-The Block from last week that included Fant instead of Hamler saw everyone’s price increase $1500 so I swapped Fant for Hamler to get the price down to $14.9k.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
I don’t want to live through another half where the Broncos are getting destroyed and we are hoping for garbage time to bring the Broncos lineups back. Ideally, the Broncos start out hot with the Raiders matching. Lock will need to continue to see a high pass attempt number with the receivers helping him out after the catch.
A block I identified earl-ish in the week became chalky with Fant and Jeudy receiving right around 15% ownership each. We are looking to find low owned blocks but raw points still matter and blocks as cheap as this give you the flexibility to pretty much build your lineup however you want.
This Team Block would have put you on pace for 239 DK pts, which was a good enough pace to take down the Millionaire Maker (238.02).
Although it wasn’t used in the Millionaire Maker winning lineup, it was good enough pace to take it down, and actually was used to get 1st and 4th in the smaller field, higher buy-in, Wildcat.
Just to see how easy or hard it would be to come up with a winning lineup using this block, I used Fantasy Labs to go back to the slate and plugged the block in with their lineup builder.
***One thing that’s nice about Fantasy Labs (and I’m sure other optos/lineup builders) is that a day or two after the slate is over, they put the players actual points they scored in which is sortable, so it’s easy to review how many points each player got that week among other things. Just remember to make sure the date is set back a week on the calendar to see the previous slate.
Once the block is in, I sorted the “Actual Points” column and started plugging in players that scored a bunch and who I played or wanted to play. I ended up with this ::
1. This cheap Team Block provided flexibility to build pretty much however you wanted and the option of getting both Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook in your lineup.
2. The Block was in a game environment with the Broncos offense as an underdog facing an Atlanta D that’s terrible against the pass and decent against the run.
3. I haven’t heard much mention of this, but it was the week of the sub $3.5k WRs going off. You’ll notice in the lineup I built, there was $500 left on the table. Olamide Zaccheaus was the only player I didn’t consider on the week that I plugged into this lineup. Christian Blake was the one everyone assumed would fill in for Ridley, so even though I knew he fit this block being a “Run it Back” option, I searched for another sub $3.5k guy I could fit in. Here’s what I found and didn’t realize until doing this exercise ::
You could have used this player block, filled out your lineup with the players I did, played Zacchaeus as the “Bring Back” or used any other cheap player above, and won the Millionaire Maker or pretty much any other contest.
Let’s find another block to give us shots in Week 10! I have blocks posted in the Broncos/Raiders, Seahawks/Rams, and Texans/Browns games with more to come today!
The Colts and Titans matchup features a strength on strength matchup with the #2 ranked DVOA defense, Colts, vs the #3 ranked DVOA offense, Titans. Currently the line sits with a total of 49 and the Titans as 2 point home favorites.
🎯 Market Target Share
Colts ::
Zach Pascal-14% // 5.00 // $6.4k
(Q) T.Y. Hilton-14% // 5.57 // $5.8k
Nyheim Hines-13% // 4.38 // $6.2k
Trey Burton-9% // 4.8 // $5.6k
Marcus Johnson -8% // 4.6 // $5.2k
Jonathan Taylor-8% // 2.63 // $8.8k
Michael Pittman-7% // 4 // $4.4k
Jack Doyle-5% // 2.14 // $1.4k
(Q) Mo Alie-Cox-4% // 1.43 // $4.8k
Jordan Wilkins-2% // .75 // $5.4k
Derrick Henry-$10.8K
>Henry’s floor and ceiling are lower in this spot against the Colts D who is ranked 3rd in overall defensive DVOA and 2nd in rush defense DVOA. This being said, Henry is almost a lock to touch the ball 20+ times as he has in 6 of 8 games so far this season and has the ability to make any defense look bad.
🚀 High Ceiling
Ryan Tannehill-$11.2k
>A tough matchup but not one Tannehill can’t overcome. Tannehill has his main receivers, Brown and Davis, healthy which was not the case in the first half of the season.
AJ Brown-$10.4k
>After getting hurt Week 1 and missing a couple games, Brown has turned it on. He’s been a TD machine, scoring 6 in his last 5 games while also getting the 100+ yard bonus in 2 and looks ridiculously hard to bring down in the open field.
💰 Leverage Play
Derrick Henry ($16.2k) over Ryan Tannehill $16.8k) in Captain
>I ran 150 lineups in Fantasy Labs using their default settings and Tannehill was put in the Captain 96 times. Surprisingly, Henry wasn’t put in the Captain once so he could go under-owned in the Captain considering his ceiling potential.
💵-Value Play
Jordan Wilkins-$5400
>Wilkins is a value when compared to Jonathan Taylor’s price being $3400 above Wilkins. Wilkins has seen 34 touches the past 2 weeks compared to 21 for Taylor and 12 for Nyheim Hines.
Other Solid Plays
Philip Rivers
>Rivers has been somewhat inconsistent with his fantasy production this year and because of this is priced on the lower side for a QB on a showdown slate. His production has ranged from scoring a low 7.63 pts vs the Browns up to 28.74 pts vs the Bengals.
Tom Brady $7.4K
>With even more weapons than he had before with Chris Godwin, Brady now leads the Bucs with an additional weapon, Antonio Brown. Brady’s the most expensive player on the slate but with good reason as the Saints are better against run than the pass, a 4-point favorite, and the Saints boast a 4 TD implied point total.
High Ceiling
Mike Evans $8.4k // Chris Godwin $7.6k
>I’m lumping these 2 together as it’s hard to know what one will have a big game. Godwin obviously has a better price considered ceiling being $800 cheaper while Evans has more TD upside but as X pointed out also has a tougher matchup.
Alvin Kamara-$11.2k // Michael Thomas $9.8k
>These 2 both have big ceilings but its hard for me to see them hit together and I also think their floor is a little shaky with Kamara’s high price, Thomas’ 1st game back, and facing the #1 ranked DVOA defense that’s elite against both the run and pass. That being said, the offense will flow through these two.
↩️ Leverage Play
Jared Cook-5.4k
>Cook could be used as a leverage off both Kamara and Thomas if you want to load up on high dollar Bucs plays and hope that Cook’s 2 TD upside pays off. Cook has scored in each of his last 3 games and it’s clear Brees likes to look at him in the redzone.
Antonio Brown-$7.4k
>This definitely isn’t a value play but in Brown’s 1st game with Brady last season, Brown saw 8 targets and Brady connected with him for a TD. That being said, Brown probably won’t play a lot and the Bucs have plenty of other weapons.
Other Solid Plays
Rob Gronkowski-$6.4k, Leonard Fournette-$6.8k, Wil Lutz-$4k (maybe the Saints move the ball but continually stall out against a tough Bucs D), Emmanuel Sanders-5.8k.
Over their last 3 games (Texans, Steelers, Bengals) the Titans have given up an average of 31.3 points per games, 2nd worst over that span. This game also ranks 4th in average combined plays. The Bears are currently 6.5 point underdogs with a total that has risen 1 point to 47.5 since opening. This block can be successful if the Bears pass offense can move the ball but is most likely to be successful due to the Bears trailing and being forced to throw. At just $13.4K, this is one of the cheaper blocks we’ve had all year.
Nick Foles ($5.5k) // Darnell Mooney ($3.9k) // Anthony Miller ($4k) = $13.4k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $13.4k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 45.56
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 67
7️⃣ owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6100
Nick Foles (sub 5%)
>The Titans have been better stopping the run than the pass and being underdogs, Foles will be expected to throw. Although he hasn’t posted a big game yet in his 4 starts, the Titans haven’t been playing great D the last few weeks. For Foles to be successful, he needs to avoid sacks and turnovers while getting the ball in his playmaker’s hands.
Darnell Mooney (sub 5%)
>Foles and Mooney connected on a nice deep shot last week. They’ve taken more deep shots this year with the addition of Mooney. Mooney is averaging a healthy 6.4 targets and at just $3900 is a solid value with a decent price considered floor.
Anthony Miller (sub 5%)
>Miller saw his highest target count last week since last season (11). We’ve seen Miller smash a couple times last season, but it has yet to happen this season. If Mooney and Miller can combine for 25-30 points, it should keep this block moving as it likely means Foles is having a good game as well.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The Bears come out playing well (I feel this line is little big) while the Titans slow down Robinson (who’s seen 3 games in a row under 10 targets). Foles is forced to look to Miller who continues his target spike and Foles connects with Mooney on a couple deep shots. The Titans continue their lack of pressure (32nd in adjusted pressure rate mentioned by Hilow) letting Foles operate and find Miller and Mooney.
If the Titans get ahead, the hope would be for them to get ahead big, so the Bears speed up their pace of play. For some reason, it always seems the Bears are really good in garbage time.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Nick Foles ($5.5k) // Darnell Mooney ($3.9k) // Corey Davis ($5.9k) = $15.3k
Ryan Tannehill ($6.3k) // Darnell Mooney ($3.9k) // Jonnu Smith ($3.9k) = $14.1k
This game has the #2 ranked DVOA defense facing an at best 3rd string QB which could be Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush. I would expect a ton of 3 and outs from Dallas with the ball in the Steelers hands the majority of the game. The Steeler’s implied point total currently sits at 27.25 or about 4 TDs.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Ben Roethlisberger ($6.5k) // Michael Gallup ($4k) // Diontae Johnson ($5k) = $15.5k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.5k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.7
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 77.5
7️⃣ %owned or less :: No (Diontae)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,750
Ben Roethlisberger (5-7%)
>Roethlisberger’s price has came down $200 sinces their game against the Browns 3 weeks ago. He’s failed to reach 20 DK pts the last 3 games as well and has the opportunity for a big bounce back spot against a Dallas D giving up the most points in the league per game (33.2).
Michael Gallup (sub 5%)
>Gallup saw 12 targets last week. Ben DiNucci’s main outlet seemed to be Gallup targeting him on quick throws. If the Steelers get up big and are forced to throw, Gallup could see another hefty amount of targets considering he’s only 4k. Hopefully the new QB targets Gallup like DiNucci did.
Diontae Johnson (7-10%)
>Johnson has been a target hog when he’s on the field, we just need him to be able to stay on the field. He’s played had 3 games where he played 50+ snaps and in each one, he’s seen double digit targets (10 // 13 // 15).
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Roethlisberger and Diontae start out hot while Dallas manages a way to stay in the game through the first half. 2 of the 4 implied TDs for the Steelers come through Big Ben and Diontae. As the Cowboy’s get behind, Gallup sees garbage time targets and racks up receptions and yards along the way.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Garrett Gilbert ($4.8k) or Cooper Rush // Michael Gallup ($4k) // Amari Cooper (5.6k) = $14.4k
Ben Roethlisberger ($6.5k) // Michael Gallup ($4k) // Eric Ebron ($4.5k) = $15k
This total currently sits at 50 and has risen from 47.5 and the Broncos offense is in a pace up spot facing the Falcons who average 70 plays per game. With the Broncos averaging about 63, this game averages for the 3rd highest plays per game on the slate.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Drew Lock ($5.2k) // Jerry Jeudy ($4.7k) // Noah Fant ($4.6k) = $14.5k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14.5k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.3
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 72.5
7% owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,917
Drew Lock (sub 5%)
>Lock is coming off his best game of the year, leading the Broncos to a 31-30 comeback win over the Chargers. He scored 20+ DK pts and 3 TDs for the first time this season. Now, he gets the arguably the easiest team to throw against giving up the 2nd most yards per game and ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA.
Jerry Jeudy (5-7%)
>Tim Patrick missed last week and is questionable this week but even if he misses, the matchup suits up well. Jeudy saw 10 targets last week with Patrick sidelined and is averaging 6.71 per game on the season.
Noah Fant (5-7%)
> Fant has seen great target volume pretty much all season. The last 4 games he’s played, he’s seen target counts of 9 // 7 // 6 // 10. The Falcons have allowed a whopping 19.1 DK pts per game to the tight end position, most in the league.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The Broncos are currently 4-point underdogs (which I think is a bit too much) and should be trailing based on Vegas lines. This sets up well facing a porous Falcons pass defense and a Broncos offense that seemed to come to life in the 2nd half last week.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Drew Lock ($5.2k) // Jerry Jeudy ($4.7k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k) = $14.4k
Drew Lock ($5.2k) // Noah Fant ($4.6k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k) = $14.3k
Matt Ryan ($6.4k) // Christian Blake ($3k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k)
Matt Ryan ($6.4k) // Christian Blake ($3k) // Hayden Hurst ($4.1)
We are halfway done with the regular season. Last week, there wasn’t much that stood out in terms of cheaper blocks that ended up paying off because it was such a low scoring week overall.
Only 2 QB priced under $6800 went for 20 + DK points (Drew Lock and Matthew Stafford) while the only WR or TE in these 2 games to go for 20 + was Keenan Allen. And, the only RBs to go for 20 + were thin and in a 3-way timeshare (Hines, Wilkins).
So this week, I wanted to touch on a few observations and thoughts I have had, since we are pretty much half way into the season.
Now that we are so deep into the season, it’s important to stick to your process. It’s fine to make small changes, but I would disagree if someone told me “I’ve always played cash, I’ve been losing, so I’m going to switch it up and throw 150 lineups in this week.” A lot of times we are closer than we realize because being a little bit off, can seem like your way off. But really, it could just be one or two changes in your lineups. The opposite is also true, “if your not 1 or 2 plays from the top, your way off”-Xandamere. But 1 or 2 different players could mean one or two plays from the top.
Instead of making drastic changes, examine why you are losing, and try to make small adjustments to your process. Small changes that I often make at this time of year are maybe picking up an extra slate if I think I can handle it, setting an alarm to make sure my lineups are uploaded by a certain time if I’ve felt pressured before lock, adjusting how your prep time is allocated, or figuring out a strategy to lower variance. If you are down more than expected, lessen the amount your putting in.
If your up, do you want to play more? Think about how much you will be comfortable losing. Will you tilt your face off if you lost every cent and say I could of bought __ instead. What was I thinking? If yes, your playing to much.
I’m no expert so take this or leave it, but I have had a successful season. I play a lot of cash to lessen the variance of gpps and I feel much more confident when I am high on a small amount of people vs wanting a little bit of everyone. I think I can make 1-5 great lineups week in and week out that are better than the majority of what other players are sticking in. I kind of think of my cash play as, “If I’m profitable in cash, I get free shots in gpps at big scores.” And now, because I’m up quite a bit on the season, my goal is to protect what I’ve earned while still getting shots at big scores. I don’t want to give it back so I’m sticking to my process and upping the amount I put in each slate by a small amount. We will see how it goes.
I would encourage everyone to take some time this week to reassess how your season has went. Are you where you expected to be? If your not hitting your goals, reassess, and lower the expectation. If you’ve already hit your goals, make new ones, and protect what you’ve earned. Jot down some thoughts of how you want the 2nd half of the season to go and be thankful we are still getting football!
Time to dig into research and start finding some blocks for Week 9! Keep Grinding OWS!
Just when I thought the 49ers were getting healthier, they leave the Seahawks game more injured than I could of ever dreamed up. There down Garoppolo, Kittle, Deebo, Mostert, Coleman, and Jeff Wilson. The Packers opened just 3.5 point favorites but has since been bet up to 5.5. They are implied to score just under 4 TDs while the 49ers just over 3.
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game
Packers ::
Davante Adams-23% // 11.6 // $12.4k
Marquez Valdes-Scantling-14% // 5 // $3.4k
*Aaron Jones (Questionable)-11% // 5.6 // $9.8k
Robert Tonyan-11% // 3.86 // $6.4k
*Allen Lazard (on IR still but eligible to be activated)-7% // 5.67 // $7.4k
Jace Sternberger-4% // 1.43 // $1.8k
Tyler Ervin-4% // 1.5 // $200
Out ::
Jamaal Williams-10% // 3.57
49ers ::
Brandon Aiyuk-21% // 6.14 // $8.6k
Kendrick Bourne-19% // 5 // $6.2k
Jerick McKinnon-14% // 3.63 // $8k
Jordan Reed (on IR but could be activated)-8% // 5.33 // $5.8k
Trent Taylor-8% // 2 // $400
Kyle Juszczyk-7% // 1.88 // $1k
Ross Dwelley-4% // 1.13 // $4.8k
Out ::
George Kittle-23% // 8.17
Deebo Samuel-11% // 5.5
Raheem Mostert-6% // 3
Tevin Coleman-2% // 1.33
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Davante Adams-$12.4K
>Davante has seen double digit targets in every game but one and that game he got injured and left the game. However, he’s really expensive, and it’s hard to play him in the captain without punting 2 other positions.
Aaron Rodgers-$11K
>Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Kyler Murray are the QBs that have scored 25+ DK points vs the 49ers. I would definitely put Rodgers in that category vs the other QBs the 49ers have face (Cam, Goff, Wentz, Jones, Darnold) so there’s no reason to think Rodgers can’t get it done here.
Aaron Jones-$9.8k
>If Jones plays and isn’t limited, he should be set for a large workload especially with Jamaal Williams out. When the situation was reversed the last two weeks, with Jones out, Williams played on 87% of snaps. The Packers are large favorites with a banged up offense on the other side and time of possession should be in their favor.
💰 Value Play
Tyler Ervin (especially in Aaron Jones is out)-$200
>It’s possible Ervin gets the lead role if Jones is out. The only other RB the Packers have is Dexter Williams who was on the practice squad. Ervin hasn’t seen much work and would be a punt play if Jones is active.
❓ Plays
The 49ers are are pretty much all question marks to me as of Tuesday. If Reed is active, he could be a good play but is kind of expensive. If he doesn’t, Ross Dwelley would be a solid play at $3.8k. Aiyuk should see some volume but his success depends on the overall success of the 49ers. Hasty saw 12 carries to McKinnon’s 3 but Mckinnon played more snaps and had more targets. If you think McKinnon can stay on the field and the 49ers will trail, he could be a descent play at $8k.
Nick Mullens-$9.2k
>I’m not sure what to think of Mullens. Sometimes he comes in and outplays Jimmy and other times he’s make the same and if not worse mistakes. Pressure definitely affects him and if he avoids costly mistakes, it’s possible Shanahan can put him it position to succeed.
Currently the Eagles are 8.5-point favorites and I want to be all over the them in this one. The Eagles are implied for 25.75 points whereas the Cowboys just 17.25.
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game Played // Salary
Out ::
Zach Ertz – 16% // 7.5- IR
Miles Sanders – 13% // 5
Desean Jackson – 9% // 6.25 IR
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Carson Wentz-$11.8K
>Carson’s been on a roll with 2 straight 30 point games, 2 straight 40+ pass attempt games, and 1 game against the 7th ranked pass DVOA Baltimore Ravens. He has a rushing TD in each of the last 2 (ceiling) and can also take off averaging 35.2 rush yards over his last 5 (floor).
🚀 High Ceiling
Ezekiel Elliott-$10.8k
>It’s hard to put Elliot in the High Floor category when his team has only put up 6 points in the last 2 games and the Cowboy’s are playing their 3rd string QB. The Cowboys have fell behind and Zeke’s touches have also dropped. They should try to lean on Zeke and if he can help lead his team down and fall into the endzone, he has a big ceiling,
Travis Fulgham-9.2k
>With the injuries that have piled up the Eagle’s offense, Fulgham has stepped in and made the most of his ridiculous 29% target share the last 3 weeks. Priced as the highest WR, there’s definitely merit to fading him.
Leverage Play
Tony Pollard-$1.6k
>If you want to fade Zeke betting that the Cowboys fall behind, Tony Pollard could be a good, cheap leverage play. Either way he should get 15-30 snaps and has seen a carry or target on a whopping 54% of his snaps.
Eagles D-$6.2k
>I rarely play defenses in Showdown but the Eagles get the Cowboys offense who has put up 6 points in 2 games and have a 3rd string QB. They’re expensive, but often times in showdown we are left with a salary with not many quality plays below it. If you’re left with a salary in this range, I would feel comfortable rostering them here.
💰 Value Play
Greg Ward-$5k
>Ward has scored a TD in 3 of his last 5 games while also seeing an average of 6.4 targets over that same span. He could be used as a salary saver and as leverage in lineups you don’t play Fulgham.
Michael Gallup-$3.4k
>Gallup has a low floor so he might not be a “value” but he’s just $3400 and it’s a new QB so who knows. Worth a couple GPP shots at his price.
This block is more expensive than I typically write about but that’s mainly due to Burrow being priced up after last weeks’ 38-point explosion in which he attempted 47 passes for 407 yards, rushed in a TD and had 3 passing TDs. Last weeks opponent, the Browns, rank 2nd in opponent pass attempts. The Titans rank 3rd in this category and this game ranks 2nd in terms of average combined plays while also holding the 2nd highest total on the slate. ✅, ✅, ✅,
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Joe Burrow ($6.2k) // AJ Green ($4.5k) // Corey Davis ($5.1k) = $15.8k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.8k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.98
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73.5
7️⃣ owned or less :: No (Burrow, Green)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,800
Joe Burrow (8-10%)
>Expect another volume spike for Burrow as he faces the Titan’s D that allows the 3rd most pass attempts and is in a game they should be trailing. Burrow has all the pieces to continue to be a favorite DFS play with high volume totals and the ability to rush picking up 34 yards on the ground and getting a QB sneak in the house last week.
AJ Green (sub 8-10%)
>Green continues to see volume and has the yardage to show, giving him a solid floor but he’s only been targeted 3 times in the redzone this season and has failed to convert on any, limiting his ceiling. If Green can get double digit targets and manage a TD, he would pay off his low price and create leverage off the popular combo of Boyd and Higgins.
Corey Davis (sub 5%)
>With defenses now having to focus the majority of their attention on AJ Brown and Derrick Henry, Davis who was banged up for 2 weeks and made his return last week, should be able to start capitalizing. He saw his first double digit target game last week and scored.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Tannehill and the Titans start hot, but the Bengals match. Corey Davis finds the endzone early and Burrow is forced into another 40 attempt game. AJ Green finally finds the endzone with seeing double digit targets while the majority of the field is either on Higgins or Boyd.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
AJ Green ($4.5k) // Tee Higgins ($5.6k) // Corey Davis ($5.1k) = $15.2k
Other Values not mentioned ::
Gio Bernard $5.8k
Tee Higgins $5.6k
Tyler Boyd $6.6k
Currently, the highest total on the slate (54) with the 49ers facing the 30th ranked pass DVOA defense and with an injury to their #1 WR (Samuel), there is some value to found. This game will likely be popular so it’s important to find some leverage where we can.
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.7k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.98
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73.5
7️⃣ %owned or less :: No (Aiyuk, Garoppolo)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,833
Jimmy Garoppolo (8-10%)
>Jimmy G looks healthy again and gets his best spot of the year after he missed the Giants, Eagles, got injured vs the Jets, and pulled during the Dolphins (it’s clear now that this was due to him still being injured and has looked much better since).
Kendrick Bourne (sub 5%)
>Deebo Samuel is out and Bourne is cheap. He’s been a reliable target that will be on the field a bunch and one that Jimmy has looked previously for in the redzone.
Brandon Aiyuk (8-10%)
>Aiyuk should see a feature role and is electric with the ball in his hands. Last week he cleared 20 points with no TD and on 6 total touches. I would expect his touch count to be closer to 10 with a couple rushing attempts factored in. I do wish his price was a little bit lower, but he has a big ceiling in this spot.
*Note :: This combination should be low owned as a whole and provides leverage off Wilson and Kittle with freedom to run it back with a Seattle piece.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We need this game to live up to the total and have Garoppolo play sharp. If the 49ers can get up at some point, the game should shoot out. Garoppolo needs to get the hands in the ball of Aiyuk and look for Bourne in the endzone. The offense is improving as the season progresses and this is a potential breakout spot for them.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5.4k) // Carlos Hyde ($5.3k) // Kendrick Bourne ($3.5k) = $14.2k
This game opened as the highest total on the slate (55) but has fallen all the way to 50.5 with the weather concerns. However, every game that the Raiders AND the Browns have played this season has went over 50 points. The spread currently sits -3 Browns so it should be a competitive game with a potential to shoot out. We should monitor the wind as we get closer to kickoff.
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14.4k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 48.96
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 72
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Higgins)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,933
Derek Carr (5-7%)
>I’m not sure why Carr’s price isn’t a little higher in this spot. It’s came up $300 in the past 3 weeks but within that time frame he has 3 straight games with 20+ DK pts, has faced the #1 and #5 defensive pass DVOA teams (Bucs, Chiefs), has hit the 300 yard bonus twice (once against the Chiefs), and now gets to face the #25 defensive pass DVOA ranked team that is giving up the 2nd most pass attempts per game and 5th most DK pts to the QB position.
Nelson Agholor (5-7%)
>I debated whether to use Ruggs or Agholor in this spot and it’s really a toss-up. Agholor is coming off a 9 target game, has scored in the last 3 games, and always seems to be open deep.
Rashad Higgins (10-15%)
>With Odell going down for the year and Landry continuing to play through injury, Higgins steps into a much bigger roll. Last week he played 44/52 snaps and caught all 6 targets for 110 yards. Although, we worry about Mayfield’s volume, Higgins should see 5-7 targets again.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We are routing for the winds to not be above 20 mph, the game shooting out, and also staying competitive. This is another spot (like the Browns game last week) where turnovers leading to short fields could be a factor (Mayfield has 5 INTs in his last 4 games and Carr has 2 in his last 2). Carrs pass volume spikes while Agholor has another high target game. Mayfield and the Browns fall behind and are forced to through throw. Higgins soaks up the missing target share with Odell out.
Last week, one of my favorite games to build around was the Browns vs Bengals game. It had plenty of value and when Mixon was ruled out, even more! The original 🧱 Team Block 🧱 I broke down was ::
Joe Burrow // Tyler Boyd // AJ Green = 84.6 ($15.2k // 5.57x).
As you can see, this block got home easily and put you on pace for a whopping 278.5 points.
This wasn’t even the best block in the game!
Once Mixon was ruled out, he became a staple value play and his pass catching ability, correlated nice with Burrow and Boyd. Removing Green, we got the 🧱 Team Block 🧱 of ::
Joe Burrow // Tyler Boyd // Gio Bernard = 90 ($15.4k // 5.84x)
This Block put you on pace for 292 points and was seen all over leaderboards including getting 2nd in the Wildcat!
Identifying the proper game environments is the key to finding these blocks. This game had a 50+ point total but was the 4th or 5th highest total on the slate and also had a close line, meaning it had the potential to shootout and was projected to be competitive. The QBs were turnover prone which can create short fields for the opposing offenses.
This has been so much fun! I can’t wait to see what I can dig up this week! OWS is on a roll and the best is yet to come! Stick to YOUR process, learn, and adapt! Smash the👍 button and crash those leaderboards!
Vegas opened this line having the Panthers as 3 point favorites but it has moved in the Falcons favor by a point and now stands as the Panthers as 2 point favorites. This is a pace up spot for the Panthers as the Falcons average the 3rd highest plays per game in the league.
🎯 Market Target Share per Game
*Note :: Now that we are later into the season, I’m switching to account for missed games in target share.
Falcons ::
Calvin Ridley-22% // $10.2k
Julio Jones-19% // $9.8k
Russell Gage-15% // $4.2k
Hayden Hurst-14% // $6.4k
Olamide Zaccheaus-8%//$1k
Todd Gurley-7% // $8.4k
Brian Hill-6% // $2.2k
Ito Smith-3% // $800
Brandon Powell-2% // $200
Christian Blake-2% // $200
Keith Smith-2% // $200
Panthers ::
Christian McCaffrey-13% // $11.8k
Robby Anderson-11% // $9.2k
D.J. Moore-11% // $8.2k
Mike Davis-8% // $8.8k
Curtis Samuel-7% // $5.4k
Ian Thomas-2% // $2.6k
Chris Manhertz-1% // $200
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Teddy Bridgewater-$10.6K
> Teddy again in one of the best spots he will be in all year. Last game vs the Falcons, he hit the 300 yard bonus and had 2 TDs. The Falcons rank 31st in DVOA vs the pass while they are actually pretty good against the run. Bridgewater already has plenty of weapons with or without CMC to have an upper 20-point game in this spot. I would put Bridgewater’s floor a little higher than Ryan’s, considering the Panthers being favorites and Bridgewater’s ability to run.
From Lex :: QBs vs ATL are averaging 344.4 yds, 2.7 pass TDs, 0.7 INT.
All seven QBs have hit 300 yd bonus, four QBs have 4 total TDs, all the INT were from CHI QBs & Cousins.
Matt Ryan-$11k
>Although Matt Ryan put up a dud against the Panthers in Week 5, he has Julio back and Vegas thinks this will be a close, 50 point plus game.
Per Lex, it’s safe to say Julio helps Ryan ::
Matt Ryan’s 4 games with Julio & 3 games without: 358 yds, 2.75 TD, 0.3 INT // 249.7 yds, 0.3 TD, 0.25 INT
🚀 High Ceiling
Robby Anderson-$k
>Anderson has scored at least double-digit DK points in every game this season and because of this, his price has gone up, which makes his price considered floor a little shaky. However, he hasn’t scored since week 1 while his counterpart DJ Moore has scored 3 times in the last 3 games. Anderson is due.
Julio Jones-$9.8k
>When Julio is on the field, he averages about the same amount of targets as Ridley and I would put his chances at being the highest scoring player as high as anyone. However, he has the 4th highest price behind the QBs and Ridley.
💰 Value Play
Russell Gage-$4.4k
>Russell Gage is priced $1200 below Carolina’s 3rd receiver, Curtis Samuel, but sees a 12% market share per game vs just 7% for Samuel. They have about the same amount of targets the last 3 games so give me the cheaper guy on a higher volume offense.
Other Solid Plays ::
Todd Gurley-$8.4
Calvin Ridley-$10.2k
Mike Davis-$8.8k
Division rivals showdown with the 3rd highest point total on the week (54) and Seattle 3 point favorites. This will be one of the most interesting and fun games for me to watch as I route for the Cardinals to take down the division leading Seahawks. GO 49ers! Expect a close back and forth game, especially if the Cardinals can get TDs in their first few drives
🎯 Market Target Share
Seahawks ::
DK Metcalf-23% // $12k
Tyler Lockett-22% // $8.2k
Chris Carson-14% // $9k
Greg Olsen-11% // $4.8k
David Moore-8% // $5.4k
Will Dissly-5% // $1.4k
Freddie Swain-5%% // $800
Travis Homer-2% // $$600
Carlos Hyde-2% // $1.6k
Jacob Hollister-2% // $400
Cardinals ::
DeAndre Hopkins-30% // $10.8k
Larry Fitzgerald-14% // $4.6k
Chase Edmonds-12% // $4k
Christian Kirk-12% // $6.4k
Andy Isabella-7% // $3k
Dan Arnold-6% // $1k
KeeSean Johnson-4% // $200
Kenyan Drake-4% // $7k
Darrell Daniels-3% // $2.4k
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Kyler Murray-$12K
>Murray has yet to score less than 24 DK points on the season. His rushing abilities lock in a solid floor. Murray has scored a rushing TD in every game but one and has 6 on the season. Seattle ranks 29th in pass DVOA so moving the ball through the air shouldn’t be an issue either. Murray has a better matchup then Wilson and is $800 cheaper.
Russell Wilson-$12.8k
>You could argue that Murray has a higher, more stable floor than Wilson but when it comes to ceiling, I give the nod to Wilson. While the Cardinals like to throw short, quick passes, the Seahawks will air it out if needed and having Lockett and Metcalf boosts Wilson’s ceiling every week.
🚀 High Ceiling
DK Metcalf-$10.2k
>Metcalf has at least 90 yards in his last 5 games with 5 TDs in that span. He leads the league by a 2.8 yards in yards per reception (22.5) and I would put his ceiling higher than everyone else but the QBs.
DeAndre Hopkins-10.8k
>Hopkins target count has dropped a bit the last 3 games, failing to reach double digits. That being said, they blew out the Cowboys and Jets in their last 2. Expect some positive target regression against one of the worst teams in the league at defending the pass.
💰 Value Play
Tyler Lockett-$k
>Lockett is a full $2k cheaper than DK Metcalf. Metcalf has seen more targets as of late 11 // 6 // 8 vs Lockett’s 5 // 4 // 1,3 but there’s no reason to think Lockett can’t out produce Metcalf in this spot.
↩️ Leverage Play
Chase Edmonds-$4k
>Edmonds has seen the majority of the RB pass volume out targeting Drake 25 to 8. Although it appears Drake has a firm grasp on the rush share after seeing 20 attempts last week, this is a game the Cardinals should be trailing which should set up for Edmonds to see quite a few targets again.
Chris Carson-$9k
>Chris Carson is a solid play this week and you could use him as leverage off the Seattle WRs with the hopes Carson steals all the TDs away and Seattle jumps out to an early lead while not being forced to throw as much.
The 49ers make up 4 of the top 5 most expensive players on the showdown slate. Usually this isn’t the case with the 49ers but it goes to show how much of the offense runs through Cam and how volatile the other Patriots pieces are. The line is low (45) and opened Pats 3.5 points favorites but has since crossed key numbers and is sitting at Pats 2.5 showing that the betters have gained confidence in the 49ers after they beat the Rams last week. Expect a slow, low scoring game.
Patriots ::
Julien Edelman-23% // $8.2k
NKeal Harry-19% // $4.8k
Rex Burkhead-17% // $2.2k
Damiere Byrd-13% // $4.2k
James White-13% // $6.8k
Ryan Izzo-7% // $1.8k
+🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Cam Newton-$11K
>Cam Newton is so much a part of this offense because of his involvement in the run that it gives him the highest floor in this game. $11k is the cheapest he’s been on a showdown slate since week 1 when he was $10.6k.
🚀 High Ceiling
Jimmy Garoppolo-$10.2k
>Jimmy and the offense looked good again against a tough division rival (Rams) last week. His floor is shakier this week playing against the Patriots but in a showdown slate, with Shanahan calling plays, and his offensive weapons healthy, Jimmy could be the highest scorer in this game.
George Kittle-$11.4
>George Kittle could be a little risky knowing the Patriots are good at shutting down the opponents best offensive weapon. Kittle is the most expensive player on the slate, but has slate breaking upside as we saw last week going to 7/109/1 TD and 15/183/1 TD against the Eagles.
↩️ Leverage Play
Deebo Samuel $8.4k // Brandon Aiyuk $7.4k
>If the Patriots put their focus on stopping George Kittle, it could open up extra targets and rushes for the 2 main 49ers WRs. You could play either one or both if you think last weeks’ offensive effort will continue against the Patriots.
Other Solid Plays ::
James White-$6.8K
>Should lead the RBs in snap rate and touches. His price would be cheap for a lead back but knowing that Burkhead and Harris will be involved, he’s not a smash play.
Jerick McKinnon-$9.4K
>McKinnon should be in line to carry the majority of the load but I wish he was a little cheaper. Mostert will miss again and when Mostert missed vs the Eagles, McKinnon played 92% of the snaps, carrying 14 times and catching 7.
The QBs are too expensive to put in a block format but we can use some of their weapons. This strategy can be effective if you want pieces of the game, but want to play a different QB stack from another game. This block will be especially useful if Aaron Jones misses the game or is limited. The game total is the highest on the slate at 57 and is the only game total above 50 to have gone up throughout the week.
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $13.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 46.55
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 66.5
7️⃣ owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6,117
Jamaal Williams (sub 7%, much higher if Jones misses)
>Williams will enter a smash spot considering his price if Jones is ruled out. Houston ranks 28th against the run and Williams would also be involved in the pass game as well.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (sub 5%).
>MVS will provide leverage off Davante Adams and if you want to still roster Adams, you could remove Jones hoping the Packers find success through the air with MVS connecting on big shots and Davante helping the Packers move the ball.
Brandin Cooks (sub 5%)
>Cooks has had 2 great games with 21 targets, 2 TDs, and a 300 yard bonus. Price has only came up $200 but he’s in the highest total of the week and also in a spot they should be trailing.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This is a block that you can approach from 2 different angles. You think either that this game is going to live up to its total and you want to stack this game, so you start from a bottom up approach, locking in 3 lower-priced players, eventually moving up to more expensive pieces.
Or, Aaron Jones misses/is limited, and you want several pieces of this game but are looking to stack elsewhere with a different QB // WR combo.
Either way, we need this game to shootout, and it should. The Texans have put up 66 points after firing Bill O’Brien. If building around other games, but still want exposure to the highest total game on the week, this could be a good way to go.
With the Saints having both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders ruled out, this opens up some value on the Saints side of the ball. Vegas has this total at 51 which is only the 5th highest but the Saints have the 3rd highest implied point total on the week. Vegas expects them to score just over 4 TDs in this game.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Drew Brees ($6.1k) // Tre’Quan Smith ($4k) // Jared Cook ($4.3k)
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14.4k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 48.96
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 72
7️⃣ owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,933
Drew Brees (sub 5%)
> Brees’ price has fallen from a week 2 high of $6800 to $6100. According to Fantasy Labs’ Trend Tool, Brees scores 3.55 points above expected at home. It may be tougher to move the ball without Thomas and Sanders, but he still has Alvin Kamara, Cook, and Tre’Quan.
Tre’Quan Smith (sub 5%)
> Tre’Quan is a little bit of a boom or bust play as he is typically thought of a home run hitter, however Brees did look to him twice in the RZ week 5. He caught both that game but failed to capitalize on the other 2 RZ looks he’s had this season.
Jared Cook (sub 5%)
>With no Thomas and Sanders, Cook could very well become Brees’ favorite target in this game. Cook saw 3 targets in his last two games played but should get back to his 5-7 range he was seeing earlier this year.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The Saints should play from in front here but if Carolina can keep it close, it would be better for these pass catchers, for Brees, and for what should be the highest owned play on the slate, Alvin Kamara. Brees throws for all 4 of the implied TDs with 1 to Cook, 1 to Tre’Quan, and the other 2 to Kamara so the DFS world 🌍 doesn’t go crazy!
Currently the 3rd highest total on the week at 55 and sits with the 3rd most combined plays average. With the Falcons being pretty good against the run (12th Rush DVOA) and bad against the pass (30th Pass DVOA), we should see the Lions airing it out.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Matthew Stafford ($6.5k) // Marvin Jones ($4.4k) // Russell Gage ($4.4k)
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.02
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 76.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5783
Matthew Stafford (5-8%)
>Stafford is in his best spot of the season, facing a Falcons team that leads the league in DK pts allowed to QBs. Being a -3 point underdog with their head coaches’ job on the line, expect the Lions to be aggressive.
Marvin Jones (5-8%)
>Jones has seen shaky target numbers (5 // 2 // 3 // 6 // 8) but with Stafford expected to exceed his normal amount of attempts, Jones should see an uptick.
Russell Gage (sub 5%)
>Gage’s target volume has dropped since the first 2 weeks of the season, but so has his price coming down from a season high of $5100, he’s the cheapest he’s been since week 1. The Lions are going to have to figure out a way to slow down Jones and Ridley which should open up Gage’s opportunity.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We need a competitive, high scoring game which is what Vegas has this as (55 O/U, 2 pt. spread). Last week, the Falcons managed to beat the Vikings and put up 40 pts while the Lions put up 34 and won against the Jags. This game should remain close throughout and we are hoping for some big plays early to get the pace up. Matthew Stafford has 35+ attempts, with Marvin Jones seeing 6-10 of those. On the other side, Julio and Ridley have middling game outcomes while the target volume Gage saw in the 1st 2 weeks returns to some extent.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Matt Ryan ($6.7k) // Russell Gage ($4.4k) // Hayden Hurt ($4.4k) = $15.5k
Matthew Stafford ($6.5k) // D’Andre Swift ($5.4k) // Danny Amendola ($3.3k) = $15.2k
The Bengals and Browns have a few reasons why I may want to attack this game. They combine to average the 2nd highest plays per game this week, the QBs are turnover prone (which can create short fields and more scoring opportunities), this has a decent total sitting at 51 as of Thursday night, and both of these offenses can put up points.
🚨 Update-With Mixon being ruled out, Gio Bernard is a staple value play. At just $4500, I would substitute AJ Green out and put Gio in. This reminds me of the type of value we got 3-4 years ago with a backup RB in a lead role that wasn’t adjusted for his role that week.
Here’s the breakdown for this block ::
Joe Burrow ($5.5k) // Tyler Boyd ($5.4k) // Gio Bernard ($4.5k) = $15.4k
🧱 Team Block 🧱
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.4k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.36
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 77
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Gio)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,767
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Joe Burrow ($5.5k) // Tyler Boyd ($5.4k) // AJ Green ($4.3k) = $15.2k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.2k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 51.68
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 76
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,800
Joe Burrow (sub 5%)
>Burrow has been fairly consistent this year with his only dud coming against the Ravens which can be expected. 300+ yards in 4 of 6 and due for some positive TD regression as he has zero passing TDs in his last 2 games. Went 316 // 3 TDs vs the Browns week 2 with 61 pass attempts.
Tyler Boyd (sub 5%)
>Has seen consistent volume (unlike the next player) with target counts from 6-9 in every game. Due for positive TD regression as he’s only caught 1 TD pass all year, back in week 2. Higgins and Boyd could be swapped for $100 less.
AJ Green (sub 5%)
>Saw a total of 22 targets weeks 1 and 2, had a bit of a dip, and was back up to 11 last week. I’m assuming his hamstring was holding him back but also realize that Green is getting older and doesn’t have the ceiling or floor he once used to.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
It’s really hard to imagine a game script in this one that doesn’t give us a what we need to be successful. If the Bengals fall behind, they will throw. If they are ahead, the offense has probably been pretty good which is good for Burrow and his pass catchers. The most obvious situation that would hold this block back would be AJ Green and his volume. Hopefully his hamstring injury has fully healed, which is believable coming off a an 11 target game last week.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
*Note-Really like stacking Burrow // Boyd // Higgins as an under-owned trio but it’s just a little too expensive for this bottom up approach because there’s plenty of guys I could stomach rostering for less than those 3 in this game.
*Note2-There’s a lot of value in this game so these are just a couple that came across my mind but plenty of others for you to come up with.
Joe Burrow ($5.5k) // Tee Higgins ($5.3k) // AJ Green ($4.3k) = $15.2
Eagles are 4.5 pts favorites in this one. This division is still wide open with none of the 4 teams out of it, but this week is a big one as all 4 teams play within the division. Wentz played better (no turnovers) against a tough Steelers D and I expect the Eagles offense to perform better as the season goes along.
🎯 Market Target Share
Giants ::
Darius Slayton-22% // $9.2k
Evan Engram-17% // $8k
Golden Tate-12% // $6.6k
Dion Lewis-8% // $1.6k
Kaden Smith-6% // $2kDevonta Freeman-4% // $7.4k
Wayne Gallman-3% // $800
Out ::
C.J. Board-5%
Eagles ::
Greg Ward-14% // $4.8k
Travis Fulgham-11% // $8.8k
DeSean Jackson-8% // $5.8k DJax’ back!
Dallas Goedert-8% // $7.8k // Eligible to return from IR
John Hightower-8% // $1.2k
Boston Scott-4% // $8.4k
Richard Rodgers-4% // $5k
Corey Clement-2% // $5.2k
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside-2% // $2.4k
Dontae Burnett-2% // $200
Out ::
Zach Ertz-19%
Miles Sanders-11%
Dallas Goedert-8% // $7.8k // Eligible to return from IR
*Note-Lane Johnson is expected to play. He’s been dealing with an ankle injury, having to miss part of the games in wk 4 and 5. If he’s healthy, it would be a big boost to the offense.
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Carson Wentz-$10.8K
>Since Week 2, Wentz has faced Pittsburgh and Baltimore who rank 8th and 7th pass DVOA. Wentz managed to put up 19 and 30 DK pts in those spots. He’s been a turnover machine but had 0 last week against a tough Ravens D. Wentz’ floor is solid, averaging 40.5 rush yards/game and has a rush TD in 4 of the last 5 games.
🚀 High Ceiling
DeSean Jackson-$5.8k
>Back from injury, we know the Eagles will take a few shots with DJax if he’s healthy.
Travis Fulgham-$8.8k
>TD in every game played (3), double digit targets in last 2, and increasing snaps each of the last 3 weeks. DeSean Jackson is back but Ertz is out who took up a 19% target share on the year.
💰 Value Play
Richard Rogers-$5k
>With Ertz out and Goedert, Rogers will see more time and opportunity.
5-50 wouldn’t be a bad line at this price but 5-50 with a TD would look a lot better. Not sure he’s much of a value but I didn’t see much else that stuck out here, to be honest.
↩️ Leverage Play
Captain Daniel Jones $15.6k
>I’m not real sure where to put Daniel Jones. He rushes a lot but his floor is still so low with 2 sub 10 pt games and his ceiling is low with a high game this year of 14 pts. That said, he did blow up for four 30 pt games last year and is an interesting GPP play in the Captain with only 1 pass catcher to be a little different. This assuming he can utilize his rushing once again and support a pass catcher like Slayton or Engram.
Other Solid Plays ::
Devonta Freeman-$11.1K // Boston Scott $8.4
>Seeing the majority of the opportunity, Freeman has see increased carries since he got joined the Giants. With Sanders out, Boston Scott should see the majority of the work here but will split time with Corey Clement. Any running back seeing the majority of carries and snaps on a one game slate is usually a good play, unless massively overpriced.
Last week I touched on the Big Ben // Claypool block and how you could of rostered any other player $3700 and below and still scored at least 5x in the block. And what do you know, after I mention how a block can have a 0 and still hit, it happened to a block I wrote about last week. Not quite as high scoring but….
This 🧱 Game Block 🧱 had a 0 and still scored 4.72x, putting the lineup on pace for 236 pts. As I mentioned last week, we obviously don’t want to be taking zeros and you probably didn’t play this block after we found out Julio was active, but this goes to show you the power 💪 of the block.
I also had another block hit last week that I wrote about (no zero!).
Another reason to start lineups by building blocks, is that they make it easier to fill in the rest of your lineup.
Once a block is found that can potentially pay off, there’s only 6 roster spots left to fill in with more average remaining salary than what was started with.
So how do we find these cheap blocks that can pay off? This is obviously the tough part.
What I have noticed when beginning my research for the week is that, most likely, the best value is going appear to be from the highest total games, and more specifically, the underdogs. This can be a good place to start looking as the studs are priced up and high owned while the lower priced players might not be priced up at all and likely low-owned, but still in the same game environment.
Lower total games usually aren’t going to be able to support 3 lower priced plays.
Other great plays are going to come from games that have middling totals, stay competitive, and end up shooting out. A question I might ask myself would be “If I remove the highest 3 or 4 game totals (and typically the most popular games to build around), what is my next favorite game to build around?”
After that, we should think of all the other things we think of on a regular basis. Will they be on the field a lot? Are they going to see an increase in opportunity due to an injury? Does this player get schemed opportunities? etc., etc.
That’s all I have for review this week! Time to start researching blocks for Week 7! This week I have blocks in the CLE @ CIN, DET @ ATL, CAR @ NO, and GB @ Hou games. I also did A Showdown Cheat Sheet for the SF @ NE game and will be adding the island games as well.
Jaguars at Texans, Week 1
💡 Reflection on 2020💡
OWS Fam! What is going on! Week 1 is here!
The past week or so I’ve contemplated on what to write for my first post of the 2021 season (I’m disappointed I didn’t get to post this earlier). My mind just kept going back to last season. I’ve been so focused on other responsibilities that I didn’t really push JM and Aaron on having a place to post about how last year went, what we learned, and how we plan to get better this year. I’m posting that here so sorry this isn’t much about the game, but it’s definitely important that we reflect on how last year went.
Overall, I had a winning NFL season, but it could’ve been much better. Week 7 was my best week and I’ve thought a lot about why.
I’ve realized I’m the type of DFS player that likes to take in all the information which can leave me scrambling at the last minute. This can cause me to enter lineups in the wrong contest or accidentally leave a dummy lineup in. My best week came in a week where I had most of my lineups done on Saturday. I had time to really look at them as a whole Sunday morning and realized there was a game that I wanted more exposure too. This probably wouldn’t have happened if I didn’t have a good feeling about the lineups I had already made. I would’ve been scrambling to make last minute adjustments without being able to look at the slate as a whole and compare my lineups I had already built to what I though the field was going to do.
Even though I had been writing about player blocks all season, this slate had a ton of value with the 2 chalkiest players on the slate being RBs and a minimum salary TE that was also very much in play. I paid up at QB and WR (usually the opposite of a block) and down at RB and TE. I made two leverage plays, one that back-fired (even though I think the thinking behind it was correct) and one that worked. Both of the plays involved fading the two highest owned players on the slate, both RBs.
The play that cost me was playing Zach Moss at the same price as Jamaal Williams, who was 50% owned. Moss was getting goal line touches at the time and was playing against the Jets. The hope was Moss gets two goal line TDs and Williams doesn’t score any TDs. That play cost me getting 4th instead of 2nd and just .8 pts from a 3-max win.
The leverage play that helped me was not playing Alvin Kamara at 52% ownership. Half of the lineups in the field had Kamara and half of the lineups in the field had Jamaal Williams. I faded both which made my lineup much different than the field. Fading Kamara allowed me to play 4 high ceiling/high priced WRs in the same lineup (Hopkins, Lockett, Hill, and Adams), two of which were from the same game.
The take-away here is that this lineup came together Sunday morning because I had a full understanding of the slate and had time to really reflect on the lineups I had already built. I wasn’t in a hurry getting my lineups into DK and assigned to the proper contests. I knew I loved the game environment and felt I didn’t have enough exposure to this game.
Because I had time, had a good feeling on what the field was going to do, wasn’t rushed, and was happy with my other lineups, I could build a few more lineups with me pretty much knowing everything I was going to know at that point going into the slate and with a clear head. And because of that, I got creative and really tried to leverage the field.
One of my goals this season is to make sure my head is clear as we get closer to lock and not feel like I’m scrambling. Maybe I should give this meditation thing that Sonic always talks about a shot
I hope everyone has a great season and let’s learn from each other! FOOTBALL IS BACK!
NBA Development Workbook :: Chapter 1,
@NUKE7350-I’ve always used FantasyLabs, even before OWS teamed up with them. But if you’re looking for something cheaper or free, someone may have one made in excel they could share with you. I would ask in our Discord if you haven’t already or maybe someone will chime in here.
Eagles at Cardinals, Week 15
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The Cardinals come in as 6.5 pt favorites. The Eagles played well last game and it’s almost as they wanted Carson benched to see what they could do with Hurts after they knocked off the Saints. This block sets up well if the Cardinals play from in front and Edmonds is active. If Edmonds is inactive, Drake should see the vast majority of the work either way. The Eagles side could be successful through the run or pass with Hurts being able to run and Goedert being the pass catching pairing.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Jalen Hurts ($5.9k) // Kenyan Drake ($5.5k) // Dallas Goedert ($3.9k) = $15.3k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // 15.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.02
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 76.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Goedert, Hurts, Drake)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,783
Jalen Hurts (8-12%)
>Seeing 17 rushing attempts last week and converting them into 106 yards with 30 pass attempts, Hurts will likely come in higher owned this week. Based on OWS projections, Hurts has the 6th highest ceiling but is just the 12th most expensive QB.
Kenyan Drake (10-12%)
>Drake scored 8 TDs in his last 8 games but has a timeshare with Chase Edmonds and Edmonds has looked like the better back at times. Edmonds is questionable and if he’s out, ownership will likely rise on Drake for good reason priced at just $5500.
Dallas Goedert (5-10%)
>The Eagles will likely be run heavy in this matchup so I want the guy who Hurts targeted the most. Goedert saw just 6 but has also seen at least 6 in the last 5 games.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This block sets up well for what Vegas is telling us which is also causing ownership to drive up on the chalkiest block I’ve wrote up all season. Goedert could come in lower owned then projected and if Edmonds is active, Drake’s ownership could also come in fairly low. Either way, I like Drake with the Cardinals currently sitting at 6.5 pt favorites. This game has a slim chance at shooting out but if it does, Hurts is likely playing well and will pay off his price tag. If it doesn’t, he should throw a few more time (30 attempts last week) and that should benefit the pairing of Hurts/Goedert.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Jalen Hurts ($5.9k) // Greg Ward ($3k) // Dallas Goedert ($3.9k) = $12.8k
Jalen Hurts ($5.9k) // Kenyan Drake ($5.5k) // Greg Ward ($3k) = $14.4k
Jalen Hurts ($5.9k) // Greg Ward ($3k) // Miles Sanders = $15.8k
Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 15
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The Bucs come into this one as 6 pt favorites and the game has the 6th highest total on the slate. Ronald Jones has had a tough week. Surgery and on the Covid list, he’s been ruled out. Also ruled out, and also a Jones, Julio is still dealing with his hammy. These two out lead to some value in a spot we know how the Falcons will attack.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Matt Ryan ($5.4k) // Leonard Fournette ($4.5k) // Russell Gage ($4.7k) = $14.6k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.6k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.64
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Fournette)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,900
Matt Ryan (sub 5%)
>Ryan has been shaky as of late but comes into this one the cheapest he’s been, well I’m not exactly sure. I looked back to the beginning of the 2018 season and couldn’t find him cheaper. He could push 40 pass attempts with the Bucs forcing opponents to the air and them trailing.
Leonard Fournette (10-14%)
>With Ronald Jones out, Fournette should be active this week and should so the field a lot. I’m slightly concerned that the touches will be spread out more evenly than what ownership and projects are indicating. That being said, Fournette has pass catching ability if the Bucs fall behind, goal line equity, and should see lead the backfield in touches.
Russell Gage (sub 5%)
>JM talked about Russell Gage on the Angles Pod and was in a block that failed last week even though Gage put up 18 DK pts with a passing TD! Lol! This week Julio’s out again and as JM also mentioned on the Angles Pod, and in the writeup above, Gage played out wide last week increasing his adot.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Every team in the league realizes the Bucs strength against the run and attacks them through the air. Matt Ryan has struggled as of late and this will be no easy test but he could push 40 pass attempts. He’s the cheapest he’s been in a really long time and Gage opens up a cheap value play to pair with him. I would expect the Falcons to be able to move the ball through the air but as they fall behind, they will need to quicken their pass. Fournette almost feels gamescript proof as he can catch passes and carry the load. The thing that’s going to cause him to fail is not being on the field and the tough matchup on the ground.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Matt Ryan ($5.4k) // Antonio Brown ($5.4k) // Russell Gage ($4.7k) = $15.5k
Matt Ryan ($5.4k) // Russell Gage ($4.7k) // Rob Gronkowski ($4.2k) = $14.3k
49ers at Cowboys, Week 15
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
This game has a lowish total (45) but is projected to be close with the 49ers visiting Dallas as 3 pt favorites. Deebo Samuel has been ruled out, making this block viable.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Nick Mullens ($5.1k) // Brandon Aiyuk ($6.3k) // Michael Gallup ($3.5k) = $14.9k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.9k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 50.66
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 74.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Aiyuk)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5850
Nick Mullens (sub 5%)
>We’ve seen that Mullens can get it done based on his low price on a weekly basis, however, it’s rare when he does get it there and extremely hard to watch when he’s throwing picks/flirting with getting benched. In 9 games played this season, he has 3 solid, price-considered outings of 25 pts, 17 pts (against Seattle when he came in for Jimmy), 20 pts.
Brandon Aiyuk (8-12%)
>Aiyuk’s target counts have went ⬆️ every game that Samuel has missed and Aiyuk has played ( 3 // 8 // 10 // 14 // 16). There’s been a lot of talk surrounding him this week, but Mullens will probably be less than 3% owned, giving you some very low ownership in this block.
Michael Gallup (5-7%)
>Gallup is averaging 6 targets per game with Dalton under center which is ok at $3500 but is still doesn’t provide much floor considering he might only catch 3-5 of them. However, over the last 3 games with Dalton, he’s averaged 8.34 so we should expect around 5-7 catches which is solid at $3500.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We simply need Mullens and the 49ers offense to play well against a bad Dallas D ranked 27th in DVOA vs the rush and 23rd vs the pass. Being a 49ers fan, I’m always nervous when Mullens is throwing picks with the chance they bench him. However, he can move the offense down the field and Shanahan’s scheme allows for the 49ers playmakers to do the majority of the work after the catch. On the other side, the 49ers D has been fairly good, particularly against the run (7th rush DVOA). Hopefully, this forces Dallas to throw more with a spread out target share that can be hard predict on a weekly basis.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Andy Dalton ($5.4k) // Michael Gallup ($3.5k) // Amari Cooper ($6.4k) = $15.3k
Nick Mullens ($5.1k) // CeeDee Lamb ($4.5k) // Kendrick Bourne ($4.1k) = $13.7k
Andy Dalton ($5.4k) // Raheem Mostert ($5.8k) // Michael Gallup ($3.5k) = $14.7k
Seahawks at WFT, Week 15
The Seahawks D has allowed less points (or tied) in each game for 6 straight. It should be noted that their opponent quality has also arguably decreased in every game during that span as well but they aren’t as likely to get blown up by a bad offense as they were early on in the season. Here are their defensive pts allowed over their last 6 with oldest game listed 1st ::
44 (Bills) // 23 (Rams) // 21 (Cardinals) // 17 (Eagles) // 3 (Jets)
Alex Smith is questionable so there is a chance Haskins would face this D but keep monitoring Smith’s status.
Bills at Broncos, Week 15
📝 Saturday 2 Game Notes 📝
I love when we get 2 game slates on Saturday. Instead of rushing after work to get home, adjust lineups, and put the Thursday night game on, not rush and watch both games start to finish, on a Saturday!
As X pointed out, Allen has 6 rushing TDs compared to 4 for both Singletary and Moss. If playing cash, I will try to get my Bills rushing exposure through Josh Allen and skip playing the Bills RB timeshare. I will also want exposure to this pass game with the Broncos depleted in the secondary. John Brown has been ruled out again leaving more opportunities for the rest of the pass catchers.
Cash is really going to come down to, if you play Josh Allen, are you going to play Aaron Jones? If you do, you will probably have to fade one of Diggs or Davante. If you play Rodgers, are you still going to play Aaron Jones? If you do, you won’t be able to play Diggs + Davante and feel ok about the rest of your lineup.
A few other notes:
*Rodgers + Davante = $17.2k
*Allen + Diggs = $15.1k
*Jaire Alexander never travels into the slot (just 18 snaps all season) which could make Samuel the safest play of Carolina’s 3 WRs.
*Denver wide receivers are all cheap but take a guess on who you should play. Here’s a look at the last 2 games:
Tim Patrick: $4.3k // 9 targets // 3 TDs on 3 RZ targets.
Jerry Jeudy: $3.9k // 8 targets // 0 TDs on 0 RZ targets.
KJ Hamler: $3.5k // 8 targets last 2 // 2 TDs on 0 RZ targets.
As it stands now, I’ll try to be have fairly even exposure on all 3 in GPPs. Patrick is coming in with the highest projection of the 3 but will also be higher owned.
*FantasyLabs currently has Cole Beasley as the biggest value on the slate (includes all non-qb positions).
I may come back later in the week to update my notes as there will be a couple updates to the projections in the meantime.
Good Luck OWS!
Chargers at Raiders, Week 15
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Austin Ekeler-$10.4K
>Ekeler will probably come in as the highest owned Captain and rightly so. It was reported by Schefter that Keenan Allen will be limited, if active at all, and Mike Williams has already been ruled out. Ekeler should see his opportunities rise as long has the offense can continue to move the ball without them. The Raiders rank last in run defense DVOA so the matchup is no worry. Labs has him projected as the highest ceiling behind only the QBs and the highest floor of anyone.
Justin Herbert-$11.8K
>Herbert’s lowest DK point totals have came in the last 2 games as they got throttled by the Patriots and held in check vs the Falcons. The thing that stuck out to me looking at his boxscore’s were 0 rushing attempts the past 2 weeks. On a 1 game slate, he still belongs in this category. The last time he faced the Raiders he had 26 DK pts. Hopefully, he will want to run more with his top 2 WRs out.
🚀 High Ceiling
Darren Waller-$9.4k
>Waller will also be one of the higher owned plays on this slate after his explosion 2 weeks ago and following it up with 10 targets last week. His floor is high in this spot and I thought about putting him in the category above.
Nelson Agholor-$7.4k
>Since week 4, or essentially since the week after he started playing a full-time role, Agholor has 7 of 9 games in the double digits, 3 of 9 with 20+ DK pts, and 6 TDs in 9 games. The Raiders will give Agholor shots and there could be 1 or 2 more with Ruggs out.
💰 Value Play
Bryan Edwards-$400 // Jalen Guyton $2.8k
> With Allen reportedly being limited, and Mike Williams already out, that doesn’t leave much for the Chargers and Ruggs has been ruled out for the Raiders. These guys should be on the field a lot with a boost to their opportunity share.
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game // Salary
Chargers ::
Keenan Allen-27% // 11.08 // $11k
Hunter Henry-16% // 6.62 // $5.8k
Mike Williams-12% // 5.50 // $6.2k
Austin Ekeler-10% // 7.29 // $10.4k
Jalen Guyton-8% // 3.08 // $2.8k
Kalen Ballage-5% // 4.80 // $2.4k
Joshua Kelley-4% // 1.92 // $600
Justin Jackson-4% // 3.14 // $2k
Tyron Johnson-3% // 1.78 // $5k
Donald Parham Jr-2% // 1.2 // $200
K.J. Hill-2% // .67 // $200
Raiders ::
Darren Waller-26% // 9.00 // $9.4k
Nelson Agholor-14% // 4.92 // $7.4k
Hunter Renfrow-14% // 4.85 // $4.8k
Josh Jacobs-9% // 3.25 // $8.8k
Jalen Richard-5% // 1.91 // $1.2k
Devontae Booker-4% // 1.46 // $1.8k
Zay Jones-4% // 1.23 // $800
Alec Ingold-4% // 1.23 // $200
Bryan Edwards-3% // 1.33 // $400
Out (Covid) Henry Ruggs III-9% // 3.45 // $
Steelers at Bills, Week 14
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Josh Allen-$12.2K
>Allen’s projected ceiling comes in 4 points higher than another player based on Fantasy Labs projections. He’s the only player to score in the upper 30’s multiple times, however, this is his toughest test of the season. His ability to rush solidifies his floor, making him the safest play in the game, with definite paths to failure against the best D in the league.
Diontae Johnson-$9K
>Adam Levitan often uses narratives on why QBs/pass catchers perform well together (#showernarrative #biblenarrative, etc). Whatever this narrative is, this one might be worth finding. Averaging 12.5 targets per game when healthy, he’s probably the safest play on the slate, price considered. The concern would be Tre’Davious White, PFF’s 14th best coverage grade.
🚀 High Ceiling
Ben Roethlisberger-$10.8k
>Roethlisberger surprisingly has only the 8th highest projected floor on FL. I think this is a mistake. For instance, Devin Singletary’s floor projects only .5 a points higher. The only thing I could think of would be the Steelers getting ahead by a ton but they pass at such a high rate that this doesn’t make much sense either. His ceiling his still projected 2nd highest behind Allen. Generally, on a showdown slate, upper tier QB’s ceilings are going to be the top 2 projected.
Others not mentioned below :: Diggs ($10k)
💰 Value Play
James Washington-$2.6k
>Washington’s snaps have been on the rise the last 3 weeks (21 // 24 // 38) and is hurting Claypool’s share (as X mentioned). Washington is 6.2k cheaper than Claypool but played more snaps last week. For Washington’s price and how much he’s on the field, he’s a descent play.
Benny Snell
>While Washington brings more ceiling at the lower salary range than Snell, Snell has seen about the same amount of targets and will also see carries.
↪️ Leverage Play:
Zack Moss
>As X pointed out, the matchup is terrible. However, Devin Singletary is projecting decent and if the fumble that limited Moss’ snaps last week was just a one game punishment, and his normal snap share return, Moss could be a good leverage off Singletary at a $1k savings.
Juju Schuster-$7k
>Priced $600 below Beasley ($2k below Diontae) and a median projection of just 1 point lower, Schuster should come in with much lower ownership after Beasley’s explosion last week. He has a steadier target count than Beasley::
Juju last 5 :: 10 // 9 // 5 // 13 // 7
Beasley’s 11 // 4 // 13 // 3 // 2
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game // Price
Steelers ::
Diontae Johnson-22% // 9.64 // $9k
JuJu Smith-Schuster-19% // 7.83 // $7k
Chase Claypool-16% // 6.50 // $8.4k
Eric Ebron-16% // 6.50 // $6.4k
James Washington-9% // 3.50 // $2.6k
James Conner-6% // 3.00 // $8k
Ray-Ray McCloud-4% // 1.58 // $800
Vance McDonald-2% // 1.10 // $200
Benny Snell-2% // .83 // $1400
Jaylen Samuels-2% // .9 // $400
Anthony McFarland-2% // .89 // $600
Bills ::
Stefon Diggs-28% // 10.00 // $10k
Cole Beasley-19% // 6.83 // $7.6k
Devin Singletary-11% // 3.58 // $5.8k
Gabriel Davis-10% // 3.25 // $5k
Dawson Knox-9% // 2.63 // $4.6k
Isaiah McKenzie-5% // 1.58 // $1.8k
Tyler Kroft-4% // 1.78 // $1k
Zack Moss-3% // 1.67 // $4.8k
Titans at Jaguars, Week 14
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The Titans have the 3rd highest implied point and the game has the 3rd highest implied point total on the slate. With Henry projected to be highly owned, we’re running it back with Tannehill and Davis again.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Ryan Tannehill ($6.7k) // Corey Davis ($5.7k) // Tyler Eifert ($3.1k) = $15.5k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.5k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.7
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 77.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Davis)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,750
Ryan Tannehill (5-8%)
>Tannehill has been limited by volume this year. On the other side, the Jags have remarkably been able to stay in the 2 games with Glennon under center. In this scenario, we could see Tannehill attempt a higher than expected amount on passes.
Corey Davis (8-12%)
>Davis has been pretty consistent for his price tag this season and showed last week, has the potential to explode. He’s priced up this week, however,the matchup is excellent with the Jags ranking 31st in pass DVOA.
Tyler Eifert (sub 5%)
>With Glennon under center, Eifert saw 6 targets last week and scored the week before. If you’re not paying all the way up at TE, Eifert is a good play that fits building around this game.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The Jags need to be able keep Henry out of the endzone and force the Titans to throw. Tannehill starts feeding Davis again (12 targets last week). While Eifert sees his targets and Glennon manages a few drives into the RZ and looks Eifert’s way.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Mike Glennon ($5.1k) // James Robinson ($7.5k) // Tyler Eifer ($3.1k) = $15.7k
Mike Glennon ($5.1k) // Laviska Shenault ($4.1k) // Corey Davis ($5.7k) = $14.9k
Falcons at Chargers, Week 14
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The Falcons come into this game with the 6th highest implied total on the slate, a QB priced in the lower end of salaries, and Julio Jones already ruled out. The Chargers got absolutely smoked by the Patriots last week and I would expect them to bounce back. These two teams average the most combined plays on the slate and have a close spread at 2.5 points, which could turn into back-and-forth, uptempo game.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Matt Ryan ($5.7k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k) // Hunter Henry ($4.4k) = $14.6k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.6k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.64
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,900
Matt Ryan (sub 5-7%)
>One of the cheaper QBs on the slate that has a chance to hit the 300 yard bonus almost every week. His chances of that are decreased a little with Julio out of the lineup. The Falcons are projected to win, which means Ryan should be able to move the ball at some point or another.
Russell Gage (sub 5%)
>Gage’s snap count wont change much with Julio out. He’s on the field the majority of the time already but his target volume could tilt toward the higher end due to Julio’s absence. Gage has seen a wide range of targets the past 4 weeks ranging from 5-12.
Hunter Henry (5-7%)
>Henry saw his lowest target count of the season last week. The previous 4 games, he saw 6 RZ looks.
JM noted this about TEs vs the Falcons D :
A. 31st in success rate allowed to the TE
B. 8th most yards allowed in spite of ranking 16th in targets faced;
C. The 2nd most TE TDs allowed
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This game is projected to be close and on the other side of this QB/WR stack, we have an expensive QB with a team that can put up points. Combined plays of the two teams is the most on the slate which increases Ryan’s chances off 40+ attempts which is what we are hoping for (3 times he’s surpassed this mark on the season going for 27, 36, 21 pts). Gage’s target opportunity should increase along with this. On the other side, Henry needs to return to seeing at least 1 or 2 RZ looks, racking up targets as the game shoots out.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Matt Ryan ($5.7k) // Mike Williams ($4.7k) // Hayden Hurst ($4.7k) = $14.1k
Matt Ryan ($5.7k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k) // Mike Williams ($4.7k) = $14.9k
Cowboys at Bengals, Week 14
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The 2nd from the lowest total game on the slate, not usually the place I try to find a block, but there is potential here based on the players prices and their chances at a 20+ pt game. The Cowboys are coming off a game in which they were trailing and threw 48 times, and although thy are projected to be leading, both of these teams turn the ball over at a high rate, and which could lead to the crazy environment we like for DFS.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Andy Dalton ($5.5k) // Michael Gallup ($3.8k) // Tyler Boyd ($4.9k) = $14.2k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14.2k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 48.28
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 71
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,967
Andy Dalton (sub 5%)
>The Cowboys fell behind last week which forced Dalton to attempt 48 passes. For Dalton to be effective, he needs to get help from his offensive line, who have been plagued by injuries this season. This matchup is the best Dalton has faced in his few starts this season in terms of pass DVOA, with the Bengals ranking 28th.
Michael Gallup (sub 5%)
>Gallup has seen 19 targets over the past 2 weeks and is priced at just $3.8k. If he sees 5-8 targets this week, he would likely need a TD to hit a ceiling game of 20+ DK pts but 12-15 pts would be enough to keep your lineup alive.
Tyler Boyd (sub 5%)
>Last week, we saw Boyd rip off a 72 yard TD on a one yard out route. This week we hope for more quick throws to Boyd to get the ball in his hands. Opportunities have been limited with Allen at QB but in his price range, he still has one of the biggest ceilings, even in a low total game.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
There is a lot of perceived value in this game, meaning the players who have a chance 20+ pt games are cheap, but the overall game flow could be slow, with a slight chance it could shoot-out. In order for this to happen, we need 2 situations to take place. The Cowboys to start out with empty possessions or TOs early on, like they have been accustomed to this season, letting the Bengals stay in the game or take a lead. And, the Bengals run heavy approach to fail, forcing them to throw, while getting the ball in the hands of their play-making pass catchers on quick, easy throws, particularly to Boyd. Both teams have turned the ball over at a high-rate this season which could set up short-fields for the opposing offenses.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Andy Dalton ($5.5k) // CeeDee Lamb ($4.8k) // Michael Gallup ($3.8k) = $14.1k
Andy Dalton ($5.5k) // Giovani Bernard ($5k) // Michael Gallup ($3.8k) = $14.3k
Vikings at Buccaneers, Week 14
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Week 13 Review ✅
Last week I wrote up a block and posted on Saturday morning. It went for 5.89x its salary, the biggest of the season off of the top of my head. However, because Firkser only went for 10 pts and took up a roster spot, there was no way to reach the top of the big Milly this week, even if you used Waller in the flex.
Here’s the breakdown of the block ::
Ryan Tannehill ($6.2k) // Corey Davis ($5.1k) // Anthony Firkser ($2.5k)=$13.8k
💵 14.5k or less :: Yes // $13.8k ✅
↔ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 46.92 // Actual = 79.9 ✅
🚀 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 60 // Actual = 79.9 ✅
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No // Tannehill (8.35%), Davis (8.59%), Firkser (32.45%) ❌
🏈 Non QBs in pass catching role :: Yes ✅
The big Milly winning lineup scored 258.44 pts. The highest scoring lineup I could find had Waller in the flex and scored 251.3 pts. Here’s a link to a picture of this lineup ::
https://www.flickr.com/photos/191016164@N06/50702710692/in/dateposted-public/
So although this particular player block wouldn’t have been quite good enough this week, we’ve been able to find one every other week so far.
Let’s find another monster that is good enough to take down everything this week! I would encourage other people to look for blocks of their own and post in collective breaking down why they think the Block is a good play! On to Week 14 already! Let’s go OWS!
Cowboys at Ravens, Week 13
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
The Ravens come into this one as 7.5 pt favorites and are facing a Cowboys team that allows 156 yards/game on the ground (most in the nfl). They’ve also allowed 100 yd rusher in 4 of their last 6 games. Meanwhile, the Ravens gain the 2nd most yards/game on the ground at 157.6 (124.3 over their last 3).
Other notes ::
>Ezekiel Elliott has lost 5 fumbles on the year while the Ravens lead the league with 21 forced fumbles.
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Lamar Jackson-$11.6K
>In 10 games played this year, Lamar has failed to reach 20 DK pts in 6 of them. Even with his struggles this season, Lamar still has the ceiling in this matchup. Fantasylabs has his ceiling 5 pts higher than the next closest (Dalton). There are 3 players who Labs projects with a higher floor, but the 2 of those players are within 1 pt.
Andy Dalton-$10k
>The Cowboys are expected to be trailing in this one and although the Ravens play at a slow pace (30.63 sec/play on offense, slowest in the league), the Cowboys are still one of the fastest (25.54, 2nd fastest) and are likely to be trailing. Dalton should clear 30 pass attempts easily and should push 40, if projected game script holds true.
🚀 High Floor
JK Dobbins-$8.6k
>Dobbins should lead the Ravens in carries and RB targets in a game they should be leading throughout. Dobbins currently has the 2nd highest projected ceiling on Labs.
Zeke Elliott-10.2k
>Zeke’s price has dropped a bit, but so has his efficiency and volume without Zeke. I will probably have a hard time playing him a lot only due to the likely game script.
💰 Value Play
Dez Bryant-$1k
>The Ravens seem to have a lot of value on their side of the ball with Andrews and Snead out, and Lamar back. Dez should be more involved this week.
Devin Duvernay-$800
>Willie Snead will miss again and last week Duvernay played almost every snap, seeing 3 targets. HIs target count didn’t really change much last week but the Ravens only played 45 snaps (on a target per snap basis, it probably increased a little) with RG3.
Luke Wilson-$1.8k
>With Mark Andrew out, Wilson should be on the field almost the entire game. Last week with no Andrews, Wilson played 37/45 snaps. He’s just $1.8k and could see 3-5 targets.
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game
Cowboys ::
Amari Cooper-21% // 8.91 // $9.6k
CeeDee Lamb-18% // 7.36 // $6.6k
Michael Gallup-15% // 6.18 // $4.4k
Dalton Schultz-14% // 4.91 // $5.2k
Ezekiel Elliott-12% // 2.45 // $10.2k
Cedrick Wilson-6% // 1.91 // $1.2k
Tony Pollard-5% // 1.91 // $2.6k
Noah Brown-3% // 1.27 // $200
Blake Bell-2% // 1.00 // $200
Ravens ::
Marquise Brown-23% // 6.1 // $7.2k
Devin Duvernay-13% // 2.1 // $800
Miles Boykin-8% // 2.1 // $600
J.K. Dobbins-7% // 2.2 // $8.6k
Mark Ingram-2% // .9 // $5.6k
Dez Bryant-2% // 2.3 // $1k
Gus Edwards -2% // .6 // $5.4k
*Mark Andrews, 23% // 6.0, currently on covid list
*Willie Snead -20% // 4.0 //, currently on covid list
Jaguars at Vikings, Week 13
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The Jaguars are 10.5 pt dogs in the 2nd highest total game on the slate meaning the Vikings should be ahead the whole game, forcing the Jags to throw more than they want to (I forgot how long this guys next really is 🦒!). Glennon performed ok last week on 35 pass attempts and we should expect this number to be the same or higher this week. They are projected at just under 3 TDs.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Mike Glennon ($4.8k) // Keelan Cole ($3.8k) // DJ Chark ($5.4k) = $14k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 47.6
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 70
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6,000
Mike Glennon (sub 5%)
>Last week, Glennon exceeded his salary expectations, going for 18 DK points (3.91x) against the Browns (23rd pass DVOA). This week he gets a tougher test against the Vikings (11th pass DVOA) but will get DJ Chark, who’s returning after missing last week. Glennon attempted 35 passes last week in a close game and I would expect them to be trailing most of the way in this game.
Keelan Cole (sub 5%)
> Cole’s targets have been anywhere in the 2-9 range but he’s had at least two in every game. Priced where he is (3.8k), and having the potential for 20 DK points (2 games this season), give him value, if building around this game or as a one off piece.
DJ Chark (sub 5%)
>Chark has been very inconsistent this year but has posted a 30+ point game and another at 29. His price has dropped from the lower 6k range to start the year as a result of this. Glennon definitely hurts his chances of a ceiling game but the volume should be there for him in a game they should be trailing.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
As mentioned above, the Jags are 10.5 dogs, in the 2nd highest total game of the week. Glennon attempted 35 passes last week in a game that was back and forth until the majority of the 4th quarter. We could see Glennon attempting 40+ passes in this spot. If the Jags get behind, they will throw. If they above their Vegas expectation, it’s obviously good too. If the TDs go through Chark and Cole instead of Robinson (projected from 10-25% owned), its Yahtzee!
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Kirk Cousins ($6.4k) // DJ Chark ($5.4k) // Kyle Rudolph ($3.4k) = $15.2k
Mike Glennon ($4.8k) // Keelan Cole ($3.8k) // Justin Jefferson ($6.9k)=$15.5k
Raiders at Jets, Week 13
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Week 12 Review ✅
After a negative covid test (but felt like crap for a few days) and a crazy Thanksgiving week, Building Blocks are back!
Last week, cheap, low-owned blocks where hard to come by. You pretty much needed Mahomes and Tyreek (+ Henry) to win anything. The Milly Maker winner scored 246.68 points with a Mahomes/Tyreek stack with no run back. This being said, we can usually find a cheaper QB or two with pass catchers in the same game, to challenge the winning Milly Lineup.
I look at every game, after the fact, to find blocks. It was scarce last week. The first place I looked was the Dolphins, knowing that Fitz had a good game, but the only other player in that game that smashed was Devante Parker.
Usually, the Vikings aren’t a team that would produce blocks because their volume is so condensed with players who are usually priced too high or highly owned. This week, we had 3 pass catchers on the Vikings expected to play more than normal with Thielen and Irv Smith out. Just for a quick visual, here is the Vikings pts/$ vs their actual ownership in the Milly ::
Dalvin Cook 42.95% // 1.18x
Justin Jefferson 22.56% // 4.13x
Kyle Rudolph 14.1%. // 4.92x
Kirk Cousins 1.35% // 4.95x
Chad Beebe .31% // 6.1x
Bisi Johnson .38% // 5.47x
To put this in perspective, nearly 80% 👀 of lineups contained at least 1 of Cook, Jefferson, and Rudolph while only 2% contained at least 1 of Cousins, Johnson, or Beebe.
I built a lineup with Cousins, just 1 of Johnson and Beebe (no way anyone would have played Johnson and Beebe together) and ran it back with Robby Anderson. The Block of Cousins // Beebe // Anderson went for 67.9 pts or 4.47x keeping the lineup on pace for 223.36 pts.
The lineup I built contains a mini stack with James Robinson and Jarvis Landry (Robinson can hit whether JAX is trailing or ahead so this would have been more of a bet that the game shoots out vs the Jags playing from ahead). It’s also correlated with the Henry and Titans D. This lineup would have scored 261.1 pts, winning the Milly by 14 pts while also leaving $800 in salary on the table (it was actually hard to find a lineup using close to the full $50k surrounding this block).
Here’s a lineup that could have won you $1 Million building around the Vikings/Panthers game…
https://www.flickr.com/photos/191016164@N06/50679498141/in/dateposted-public/
I will start getting some blocks up for this week today! Go OWS!
Blocks up in the Browns/Titans, Jags/Vikings, and Colts/Texans writeups!
Colts at Texans, Week 13
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
As JM mentioned, this game is one of the most attractive spots on an ugly slate. It’s tied for the 2nd highest total on the slate and also has the smallest line of the high total games at 3.5. This block is built around the game being close, playing the lower owned Rivers in a good spot, and living up to its high total this week.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Philip Rivers ($5.9k) // Keke Coutee ($3.5k) // Michael Pittman ($4.9k) = $14.3k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // 14.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 48.62
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 71.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Coutee?)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,950
Philip Rivers (sub 5%)
>Rivers’ attempt volume has increased over the past 4 weeks with attempt counts of 42 // 36 // 39 // 42.
Keke Coutee (sub 5%)
> With will Fuller gone for 6 games and Randall Cobb out, Coutee will see more opportunity in a game the Texans could be trailing. At just $3500, Coutee wasn’t priced up for his upcoming, expanded role and should see more than what he’s gotten the last 2 weeks (3 // 4).
Michael Pittman (sub 5%)
>In Pittman’s last 3 of 4 games he’s seen at least 7 targets which is saying something on an offense that likes to spread the ball around as much as the Colts do. You could really put any Colts pass catcher in this spot including Trey Burton.
*If this game were last week, Nyheim Hines would be substituted here, but Jonathan Taylor back this week concerns me a little bit. I may pair Rivers // Hines in a couple lineups and also hedge those with a few Watson // Taylor lineups, building 6 or so lineups with this game in mind if building 25-30 lineups.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
For this block to work, we need the Texans to play well on offense and keep this game around 3 points (like the line suggests). Ideally, the Colts get in a spot at the end of the 1st half and end of the game where they are trying to score through the air and are in a no huddle/hurry up situation. This will probably be different from how the majority of stacks are built surrounding this game (Watson/Cooks or Coutee ran back with one of Taylor/Hines/Colts pass catcher).
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Deshaun Watson ($7.5k) // Keke Coutee ($3.5k) // Trey Burton ($3.5k) = $14.5k
*Trey Burton has seen a RZ target in each of his last 7 games, catching 6 of 8, and 3 TDs.
Philip Rivers ($5.9k) // Keke Coutee ($3.5k) // Nyheim Hines ($5.3k) = $14.7k
Browns at Titans, Week 13
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
On an ugly slate, this game sets up as Vegas’ highest implied point total (53.5). The line shows the Titans currently favored by 5.5. We’re hoping the Titans open fast with the TDs coming through the air while the Browns are forced to catch up and throw more than they want.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Ryan Tannehill ($6.2k) // Corey Davis ($5.1k) // Anthony Firkser ($2.5kk) = $13.8k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // 13.8k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 46.92
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 69
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Firkser)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6,033
Ryan Tannehill (5-7%)
>Tannehill has seen low volume this year due to the Titans running the ball so much (I would too if I had Derick Henry) so Tannehill will likely need to be efficient and have the Browns stay in the game to pay off. He’s only went for 20+ in 4 games this year (2 over 30) but on a slate this ugly, 25 points may get you there.
Corey Davis (sub 5%)
>Corey Davis has shown bright spots on the year and will likely see much lower ownership than AJ Brown (who’s price is pretty high considering how efficient he needs to be to pay off). Davis has surprisingly reached double digit DK points in every game he’s played this year (8).
Anthony Firkser (15-20%)
>With Jonnu Smith out, Firkser will be the starting TE. Although he could be limited by volume, Firkser is the bare minimum price and likely won’t matter much to the overall lineup if he fails (anything over 7-10 pts is huge!)
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We’re hoping the Browns get up in this game or at least keep it within a field goal for as long as possible which would force the Titans to throw. Tannehill and the pass catchers steal the TDs away from the Big Dawg. Tannehill throws three TDs and two of those are to the combo of Firkser and Davis.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Baker Mayfield ($5.3k) // Jarvis Landry ($6.2k) // Anthony Firkser ($2.5k) = $14k
Ryan Tannehill ($6.2k) // Kareem Hunt ($5.4k) // Anthony Firkser ($2.5k) = $14.1k
Dolphins at Broncos, Week 11
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The Broncos are coming in with either a banged-up Drew Lock or Drew Rypien. As the week goes on, Lock has been taking reps. Either way, the Dolphins are in a good spot and should continue to get good play out of their defense, setting the offense up for short fields and scoring opportunities.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Tua Tagovailoa ($5.8k) // DeVante Parker ($5.7k) // Jakeem Grant ($3.5k) = $15k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 51
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 75
7️⃣ %owned or less :: No (Parker)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5833
Tua Tagovailoa (sub 5%)
>The Dolphins D has been playing great and making it easy on Tua. As Hilow mentions, the Dolphins are running a very low amount of offensive snaps. Part of the reason, has been the D setting them up with short fields. We are hoping this game is a little faster-paced and Tua is asked to throw more than his 22-28 times in his 1st three starts.
DeVante Parker (sub 5%)
>Parker has seen 7 targets in each of the last 2, but hasn’t been able to much with them, reaching 20 DK pts in just one game this season. Last week, he was 12% owned in the Milly Maker so maybe this week he will be a little lower-owned, coming of another dud.
Jakeem Grant (sub 5%)
>With Preston Williams being sent to IR, Grant played 75% of the offensive snaps and will continue to play opposite of Parker. Not only did he play a bunch last week, he performed, grading as PFF’s highest player on Miami’s offensive side of the ball and catching 4 of 5 targets with a score.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Drew Lock has been taking a few reps in practice and if he can’t go, Brett Rypien would get another shot at starting. Either way, things should be easy on Tua again with the Miami D likely creating a few turnovers and extra opportunities. We just hope the defense doesn’t score, which they have done a good job at this season. If the Broncos play well, it might be even better for Tua, who’s been held back with low volume.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Tua Tagovailoa ($5.8k) // Salvon Ahmed ($4.8k) // Jakeem Grant ($3.5k) = $14.1k
Salvon Ahmen ($4.8k) // Jakeem Grant ($3.5k) // Miami D ($3.4k) = $11.7k
Eagles at Browns, Week 11
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
It’s hard to predict how either of these teams will perform on a week-to-week basis but Vegas has the Browns as a 3-point favorite which would probably be even on a neutral field. This should be a close game with both teams taking the lead throughout. The Browns will lean on the run and the Eagles will do a little of both. This game could get sloppy which can be a good thing if we are looking for usable DFS scores.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Carson Wentz ($5.7k) // Jalen Reagor ($4.3k) // Richard Rodgers ($3.5k) = $13.4k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $13.8k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 46.92
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 69
7️⃣ %owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6033
Carson Wentz (sub 5%)
>Sure, Wentz and the Eagles have struggled this season, but the Eagles are likely going to be trailing and should be forced to throw. His surrounding players are all affordable and if we skip the past two weeks and look at the 2 weeks prior, Wentz had back to back 30 pt games.
Jalen Reagor (sub 5%)
>After missing 5 games, Reagor has seen an 81% snap share and 13 targets in his 2 games back. Let’s hope the rookie continues to see a ton of playing time and Wentz continues to target him more and more.
Richard Rodgers (sub 5%)
>The Eagles TE situations have been hard to figure out this year. It always seems that whenever they’re in a good spot, the work goes to the #2 TE. Last week, we saw Goedert get 6 targets and Rodgers 5, but Goedert left the field for a bit and his targets didn’t come until late in the game. Because this seems like a toss-up every week, the field likely having some ownership on Goedert (Goedert currently has the 3rd highest median projection on FL and will likely pop in the opto), give me the cheaper, unowned guy.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Wentz just needs to play well, avoiding sacks and turnovers. The Browns are a team that the Eagles should be able to move the ball on (Browns rank 20th against the pass and 18th against the run). Wentz needs to avoid sacks and turnovers while using his legs to pick up a few additional DK points along the way. The Eagles got embarrassed last week in a divisional loss to the Giants in a game where the Eagles were favored. If this game gets to a situation where the Eagles come out playing well, it could force the Browns to have air it out a little bit. This could lead to additional possessions and short fields for the Eagles coming from Mayfield turnovers.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Carson Wentz ($5.7k) // Jalen Reagor ($4.3k) // Dallas Goedert ($3.8k) = $13.8k
Carson Wentz ($5.7k) // Travis Fulgham ($5.6k) // Dallas Goedert ($3.8k) = $15.1k
Falcons at Saints, Week 11
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
This divisional matchup is tied for the highest total on the slate (51) and the Saints are projected with the 2nd highest implied point total, even with no Brees and the Winston/Hill combo at QB. This sets up for the Falcons to either get short fields with a struggling QB on the other side or them to fall behind and forced to throw.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Matt Ryan ($6.3k) // Emmanuel Sanders ($4.9k) // Hayden Hurst ($4.4k) = $15.6k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // 15.6k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 53.04
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 78
7️⃣ %owned or less :: No (Ryan, Hurst?)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,733
Matt Ryan (sub 7-10%)
>Ryan reached the 300-yard bonus in 2 of his last 4 and in the other two, he had 281 and 284 yards. He’s been close when he hasn’t gotten there and should have his 3 main weapons together if Ridley makes it back.
Emmanuel Sanders (sub 5%)
>With all the attention surrounding Kamara’s injury, the QB situation, and the question surrounding the lack of volume for MT, Sanders could come in pretty low-owned. The Saints have the 2nd highest implied point total on the slate. If the Saints play well with their backup QB, then Sanders has a chance to put up points. If the Saints fall behind, they will be forced to throw more.
Hayden Hurst (7-10%)
>Hurst has quietly been one of the better TEs this year seeing at least 6 targets in 7 games. He’s also been the highest correlated player with Matt Ryan this season. Matt Ryan has had 5 games above 21 DK pts. Hurst’s points in those games :: 13.2 / 12.8 / 15.7 / 18.2 / 6.8. In all but one of Ryan’s solid games, Hurst has also had a solid game.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This really should set up well for the Falcons as long as they don’t fall too far behind. If the Saints QB situation turns south for the Saints, the Falcons could get setup with short fields. I really have a hard time believing the Saints will be able to pull away. If the Saints do get in front, it will lead to the Falcons having throw more. The Saints have the 2nd highest point total so hopefully the Saints can move the ball with some volume going to Sanders.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Jameis Winston ($5.9k) // Emmanuel Sanders ($4.9k) // Jared Cook ($4.1k) = $14.9k
Matt Ryan ($6.3k) // Russell Gage ($3.9k) // Emmanuel Sanders ($4.9k) = $15.1k
Packers at Colts, Week 11
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The Colts come into this game as 2.5-point favorites after opening just 1. This might be due to the Packers struggles last week against the Jags, the Colts big win over the Titans, and the Colts have one of the best defenses in the league. The Colts will still be expected to have to put up some points and Rivers should be able to move the ball against the Packers 21st ranked defense.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Phillip Rivers ($5.6k) // Nyheim Hines ($5.2k) // Michael Pittman ($4.5k) = $15.3k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 53.55
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 76.5
7️⃣ %owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,783
Phillip Rivers (sub 5%)
>Rivers has this offense playing pretty good, scoring 31+ in their last 3 of 4 (with the other coming against the Ravens). He’s been able to get the ball out quick, racking up 300+ yds in 2 of his last 4, however, Rivers production is largely dependent on throwing TDs.
Nyheim Hines (sub 5%)
>Hines surprisingly saw 12 carries last week, getting into the endzone on one. He was also within his usual target range, seeing 6, and getting one of those home. The Colts show that they like using Hines in the redzone, getting 20 total touches and targets. (he’s seen 9 touches and targets inside the 10 this season, thanks Ian).
Michael Pittman (5-7%)
>Although Rivers spreads the ball around, Pittman has 15 targets the last two games, hitting the 100 yard bonus last week. You could substitute Hilton, Pascal, or MVS as well, and all for cheaper.
*Note-It’s still uncertain if Jaire Alexander will play.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We should keep in mind that the Packers have one of the best offenses in football that is starting to get its core pieces back together. We need the Packers to overcome the to the Colts D here, keeping the game competitive, with the Packers even taking the lead at times throughout the game. The Colts must be able to move the ball, preferably through the air, and with Hynes on the field more than the other backs.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Phillip Rivers ($5.6k) // Nyheim Hines ($5.2k) // Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4.8k) = $15.6k
Phillip Rivers ($5.6k) // Michael Pittman ($4.5k) // Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4.8k) = $14.9k
Patriots at Texans, Week 11
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
This game is projected to be somewhat close, with the line showing the Patriots favored by 2.5 and a rising total from 47 to 49 (3rd highest on slate). The Patriots have played well their last 2 games, being able to effectively run the ball and move it through the air, with Jakobi Meyers emerging as a reliable target for Cam Newton. This block is built around this continuing for the Patriots while the Texans being able to move the ball through the air against a 30th pass ranked Patriots D.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Cam Newton ($6.2k) // Jakobi Meyers ($4.9k) // Randall Cobb ($3.6k) = $14.7k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.7k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.98
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Meyers)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,883
Cam Newton (5-7%)
>Anytime the Patriots get inside the 10 yard line, Cam is a threat to run it in. He has 9 rushing TDs on the year and thanks to Ian, 19 attempts inside the 10-yard line. Newton isn’t very effective through the air but his new, emerging receiver, Jakobi Meyers has proven to be Cam’s preferred target. Meyers has helped them get into position to score which is what Cam needs in order to pay off.
Jakobi Meyers (7-10%)
>Newton has locked on to Myers, who is seeing a 32% target share the past 4 weeks (9.25 per game), and despite Cam’s lack of passing volume, a target share that big is still worth noting. Meyers has also proven to be reliable and come up big when Cam needs him to, which can not be said for any of the remaining Patriots WRs.
Randall Cobb (sub 5%)
>A bottom piece for sure, Cobb has a floor of 3 targets and a ceiling of about 8. He really needs to score to truly pay off but The Texans are projected to play from behind in this one so there may be a few additional looks for Cobb.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The line is projected to be close and the Patriots playing well the last two games, has caused the total to rise. We need the Patriots to continue to play well with some of the production coming through Cam and Meyers. With the Texans likely playing from behind, the hope is that Watson begins to throw and Cobb sees the upper-end of his 3-8 target range, while the Texans run game continues to be ineffective.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Cam Newton ($6.2k) // Jakobi Meyers ($4.9k) // Rex Burkhead ($4.6k) = $15.7k
Cam Newton ($6.2k) // Brandin Cooks ($5.2k) // Jakobi Meyers ($4.9k) = $16.3k
Bengals at WFT, Week 11
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Week 10 Review ✅
Week 10 was kind of disappointing, especially surrounding Building Blocks. The only game that really provided value if trying to build around a QB and two pass catchers was the Det/Was game. Several of the Lions had a good point per dollar value including Matthew Stafford. The highest scoring block that came out of this game was more expensive than we typically talk about but with nothing else really popping below this total salary, I’ll break it down ::
Matthew Stafford-$5.8k // D’Andre Swift-$5.1k// Marvin Jones-$5.2k = 72.5pts
This block was good enough for 4.5x and would of kept you on pace for 225 pts. This pace would have been enough to win the Milly Maker and like last week, I’ve went into FantasyLabs and built a highly correlated lineup with plays that were low-owned, but not completely crazy. Here’s what I came up with ::
https://www.flickr.com/photos/191016164@N06/50617998448/in/dateposted-public/
You’ll notice that the lineup contains the block mentioned above, running it back with Logan Thomas, giving it a cheap, low owned game stack. Next, we have a mini game stack with Hopkins on one side and Beasley on the other. Kamara is paired with his defense and the only other player not correlated in some way is Josh Jacobs who was a low-owned, 3 pt. home favorite. Overall this lineup scored 220.1 points which would have won the Milly by 1.6pts.
Enough on last week. Let’s take a look at the next, weird, upcoming Week 11 slate.
Notable QBs not on Week 11 slate ::
Russell Wilson
Kyler Murray
Patrick Mahomes
Jared Goff
Tom Brady
Josh Allen
This leaves us with the struggling Lamar Jackson up against a middling Titans defense. Aaron Rodgers against the tuff Colts D. The rest of the QBs are priced $6800 and below, so we will most likely be playing a few cheaper QBs. We still are trying to find game environments that might be overlooked, we are comfortable building around, and have the potential to shoot out. I will update the games I have write ups for, here, to make them easier to find.
*Blocks posted in ATL/NO, NE/HOU, PHI/CLE, MIA/DEN and GB/IND games!
On to week 11! Lets go OWS!
Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 11
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
Another tough divisional game for the Seahawks ahead. They have lost their last 3 of 4 games. It seems every year Seattle comes out looking like one of the top tier teams in the league, then they sputter out for part of the season. These teams put 71 points on the board in a Week 7 overtime clash. It’s important to note, we always think that the other team has to erupt for the Seahawks to go off, but teams have been somewhat able to play with them and play from in front lately. If we are expecting another shootout, we need Seattle to bounce back and play well against the up-tempo Cardinals.
↔🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Kyler Murray-$13K
>Murray is averaging 31.04 DK pts per game. To put that in perspective, Lamar Jackson averaged 28.65 DK points per game in the regular season last year and we thought that was unbelievable. Murray has been unbelievable this season. He’s pretty pricey but as of Tuesday, has the highest projected floor, median, and ceiling on FantasyLabs. Murray and Wilson also come in as the highest pt/dollar plays among the high salary studs.
🚀 High Ceiling
Russell Wilson-$11.8k
>Coming off his first dud game of the season, Wilson’s efficiency has taken a hit lately throwing 7 picks in his last 3 games. He’s also taken 11 sacks the past 2 games leading to tough situations and stalled drives. It’s also worth noting Wilson could be behind a 3rd string center who’s not listed as a center and has taken no snaps at center this season. Kyle Fuller’s status (high ankle sprain) should be monitored. That being said, Wilson always has a high ceiling and Wilson’s mobility allows this offense to get Wilson on the move if needed.
Tyler Lockett-$9.4k
>Coach Carroll said that Lockett has a “bit of a knee sprain” so this is something to monitor after Lockett absolutely torched the Cardinals in Week 7. On 20 (yes, 20!) targets, Lockett went 15 // 200 // 3TD. Patrick Peterson was mostly on DK Metcalf limiting him to just 2 // 23 on 5 targets but Wilson clearly was avoiding throwing to DK. It was also said on the week 7 broadcast that Dre Kirkpatrick, who Lockett did his majority of damage against, was having issues changing directions due to an ankle injury, but If Lockett gets fully healthy and Peterson shadows Metcalf, this could be another eruption spot.
DK Metcalf-$10.2k
>Metcalf obviously has a big ceiling every game, but I want to be heavier on whoever Patrick Peterson isn’t covering and I would expect Peterson to shadow Metcalf again. On Metcalf’s five targets in their previous matchup, one was a throwaway and another led to one of Wilson’s three picks. It’s clear that Wilson has been avoiding DK when a top tier corner is matched up with him.
DeAndre Hopkins-$10.8k
>Hopkins has been very much boom or bust the past 5 games ( 28.7pts/12tgts, 6pts/3tgts, 28.3pts/12tgts, 9.3pts/8tgts, 28.10pts/7tgts) but I would doubt Murray will shy away from Hopkins after last week’s “Hail Murray” and Hopkins roasting the Seahawks Week 7.
💰 Value Play
Larry Fitz-$4.4k
>The corpse of Fitzgerald saw 8 targets against the Seahawks poor secondary week 7 and he’s seen five each of the last two. Just $400 and $200 more than the kicker, Fitz will likely be lower owned and could see 5-8 targets again.
↩️ Leverage Play
*Update Carson Doubtful! Chris Carson-$8.4k
>There’s been a lot of talk about Seattle needing to get back to the run game after Wilson had a three-interception game last week. It makes a lot of sense with them getting Carson back after he left the game early last time around vs the Cardinals and ended up missing the next three games. You could go spend salary on the Cardinals passing game and take Carson who could see a lot of Seattle work and also vulture TDs at a lower price compared to the other Seattle studs.
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game
Cardinals ::
DeAndre Hopkins-28% // 9.78 // $16.2k
Larry Fitzgerald-15% // 5.22 // $4.4k
Christian Kirk-15% // 5.75 // $7.4k
Chase Edmonds-12% // 4.22 // $5.6k
Andy Isabella-7% // 3.67 // $2k
Dan Arnold-6% // 3.33 // $2.2k
Kenyan Drake-4% // 2.2 // $6.2k
Darrell Daniels-3% // 4 // $400
KeeSean Johnson-3% // $200
Seahawks ::
Tyler Lockett -24% // 8.78 // $9.4k
DK Metcalf-22% // 8 // $10.2k
Greg Olsen-10% // 3.67 // $3.6k
David Moore-9% // 3.22 // $4.8k
Chris Carson-7% // 4.17 // $8.4k
Will Dissly-5% // 1.78 // $1.8k
Jacob Hollister-5% // 1.78 // $1k
Freddie Swain-4% // 1.67 // $1.2k
DeeJay Dallas-4% // 2.14 // $600
Travis Homer-3% // 1.11 // $800
Carlos Hyde-2% // 1.75 // $5.2k
Texans at Browns, Week 10
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The Browns currently sit as a 3.5 pt favorite with the total opening fairly high (54) but has since been bet down to 49. Baker Mayfield was on the COVID list but has been cleared and should suit up.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Deshaun Watson ($6.9k) // Duke Johnson ($5k) // Jordan Atkins ($2.9k) = $14.8k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.8k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 50.32
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 74
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No, Johnson/Watson
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,867
Deshaun Watson (%)
>Watson has been on a roll, scoring 24 + DK points in his last 4. He has finally started to rush a little more with 17 attempts for 88 yards his last 2, boosting his floor.
Duke Johnson (%)
>David Johnson is looking like he won’t suit up after going into concussion protocol and leaving the game early last week. Duke played on 52/64 snaps with David out, carrying 16 times and catching all 4 of his targets.
Jordan Akins (sub 5%)
> Akins has out targeted Darren Fells in each of the last 3 games and is only $2900. If your punting at TE and want correlation with Watson and this game, Akins is an option. On the other side, Harrison Bryant is just $100 more and could be substituted for Akins.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This game will likely be close throughout as I have a hard time seeing the Browns pull away, but if they do, this block can still hit as Watson is great in catch up mode.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Baker Mayfield ($6k) // Jarvis Landry ($5.9k) // Harrison Bryant ($3k) = $13.9k
Deshaun Watson ($6.9k) // Randall Cobb ($4k) // Austin Hooper ($3.9k) = $14.8k
Seahawks at Rams, Week 10
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
These division rivals boast the 2nd highest total on the week with an interesting line, having the Rams favored by 2 points. These teams combine to run the 3rd most combined plays on the week. It’s rare that we can get a block as cheap as this with a top tier QB in it. The WR plays maybe a little thin, but this is a way to get leverage off the field while attacking the popular spot. If the line holds true with the Rams being competitive and actually leading, this sets up for another #LetRussCook spot.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Russell Wilson ($7.7k) // David Moore ($3.4k) // Josh Reynolds ($3.5k) = $14.6k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.6k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.64
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No, Wilson
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5900
Russell Wilson (10-15%)
>Wilson has 3 games this season with 40 + pass attempts this season. In those games he went for 29.1 // 35.92 // 39.8 DK pts. If the Rams live up to the spread and the Seahawks are trailing, we should see another high attempt game from Wilson.
Josh Reynolds (sub 5%)
>Reynolds has been on the field for 70% of the Rams snaps the last 3 weeks. He’s been seeing volume during that stretch as well averaging 7.34 targets and cashing in on 2 TDs. With the amount of opportunities Reynolds is seeing, the high total, and his low price, Reynolds should be considered if wanting leverage in this spot.
David Moore (sub 5%)
>The Seahawks love to throw TD shots to Moore. He doesn’t play a ton but has 4 TDs in 7 games played. It’s rare to find a guy priced at $3.4k who’s paired with the best QB in the league, has TDs in 57% of his games, and is in the 2nd highest total of the week. Moore is also worth some shots.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Ideally, the Rams get off to a fast start and get out to a lead. This would spike Wilson’s pass volume leading to more opportunities for Moore. It would also mean the Rams put points up and hopefully some of that production flows through Reynolds. The thing we don’t want, is a low scoring, close game in which Carroll decides they have been throwing too much with it getting later in the season and the Seahawks losing the last 2 of 3.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Jared Goff ($6.5k) // Josh Reynolds ($3.5k) // David Moore ($3.4k) = $13.4
Broncos at Raiders, Week 10
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Broncos @ Raiders opened as the 3rd highest total on the slate at 51 and it has stayed in the same spot so far. The spread favors the Raiders by -5 points so the Broncos offense should see increased pass volume once again. This game is appealing because it offers a lot of value, has a decent total, and could be overlooked by the field.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Drew Lock ($5.5k) // Jerry Jeudy ($5.6k) // KJ Hamler ($3.8k) = $14.9k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.9k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 50.66
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 74.5
7️⃣ owned or less :: No, Jeudy
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,850
Drew Lock (sub 5%)
>Lock continues to impress in garbage time and threw a career high 48 times last week. This makes it 3 weeks in a row with 40+ attempts. They’ve gotten down the previous 2 weeks and Lock has been able to bring the team back late in the game, racking up stats along the way.
Jerry Jeudy (sub 5%)
>Jeudy had a bit of a coming out party last week converting a whopping 14 targets into 7 / 125 yds / 1TD line. He’s coming off his back to back games with double digit targets, his only double digit target games of the season, but did see target counts of 8 // 7 // 9 to start the season.
KJ Hamler (sub 5%)
>Hamler also saw double digit targets and has been on the field a ton (78% of snaps last 2 weeks) and at just $3.8k, makes this block affordable, with Lock and Jeudy’s price rising after last week.
*Note-The Block from last week that included Fant instead of Hamler saw everyone’s price increase $1500 so I swapped Fant for Hamler to get the price down to $14.9k.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
I don’t want to live through another half where the Broncos are getting destroyed and we are hoping for garbage time to bring the Broncos lineups back. Ideally, the Broncos start out hot with the Raiders matching. Lock will need to continue to see a high pass attempt number with the receivers helping him out after the catch.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Drew Lock ($5.5k) // KJ Hamler ($3.8k) // Darren Waller ($5.9k) = $15.2k
Derek Carr ($5.4k) // Melvin Gordon ($5.2k) // Nelson Agholor ($4.9k) = $15.5k
Derek Carr ($5.4k) // KJ Hamler ($3.8k) // Darren Waller ($5.9k) = $15.1k
Eagles at Giants, Week 10
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Week 9 Review ✅
A block I identified earl-ish in the week became chalky with Fant and Jeudy receiving right around 15% ownership each. We are looking to find low owned blocks but raw points still matter and blocks as cheap as this give you the flexibility to pretty much build your lineup however you want.
Drew Lock-$5.2k🔥 // Jerry Jeudy-$4.7k🔥 // Noah Fant-$4.6k = 14.5k // 69.22 pts (4.77x)
This Team Block would have put you on pace for 239 DK pts, which was a good enough pace to take down the Millionaire Maker (238.02).
Although it wasn’t used in the Millionaire Maker winning lineup, it was good enough pace to take it down, and actually was used to get 1st and 4th in the smaller field, higher buy-in, Wildcat.
Just to see how easy or hard it would be to come up with a winning lineup using this block, I used Fantasy Labs to go back to the slate and plugged the block in with their lineup builder.
***One thing that’s nice about Fantasy Labs (and I’m sure other optos/lineup builders) is that a day or two after the slate is over, they put the players actual points they scored in which is sortable, so it’s easy to review how many points each player got that week among other things. Just remember to make sure the date is set back a week on the calendar to see the previous slate.
Once the block is in, I sorted the “Actual Points” column and started plugging in players that scored a bunch and who I played or wanted to play. I ended up with this ::
https://www.flickr.com/photos/191016164@N06/50589467372/in/dateposted-public/
A couple points about this lineup/slate ::
1. This cheap Team Block provided flexibility to build pretty much however you wanted and the option of getting both Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook in your lineup.
2. The Block was in a game environment with the Broncos offense as an underdog facing an Atlanta D that’s terrible against the pass and decent against the run.
3. I haven’t heard much mention of this, but it was the week of the sub $3.5k WRs going off. You’ll notice in the lineup I built, there was $500 left on the table. Olamide Zaccheaus was the only player I didn’t consider on the week that I plugged into this lineup. Christian Blake was the one everyone assumed would fill in for Ridley, so even though I knew he fit this block being a “Run it Back” option, I searched for another sub $3.5k guy I could fit in. Here’s what I found and didn’t realize until doing this exercise ::
Olamide Zacchaeus-$3k // 23.3 pts // 7.76x
David Moore-$3.1k // 17.1 pts // 5.51x
Gabriel Davis-$3.2k // 17 pts // 5.31x
Cam Sims-$3k // 17 pts // 5.67x
KJ Hamler-$3.4k // 15 pts // 4.41x
Chris Conley $3k // 12.2 pts // 4.07x
So many players under $3.5k crushed this week.
You could have used this player block, filled out your lineup with the players I did, played Zacchaeus as the “Bring Back” or used any other cheap player above, and won the Millionaire Maker or pretty much any other contest.
Let’s find another block to give us shots in Week 10! I have blocks posted in the Broncos/Raiders, Seahawks/Rams, and Texans/Browns games with more to come today!
Colts at Titans, Week 10
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
The Colts and Titans matchup features a strength on strength matchup with the #2 ranked DVOA defense, Colts, vs the #3 ranked DVOA offense, Titans. Currently the line sits with a total of 49 and the Titans as 2 point home favorites.
🎯 Market Target Share
Colts ::
Zach Pascal-14% // 5.00 // $6.4k
(Q) T.Y. Hilton-14% // 5.57 // $5.8k
Nyheim Hines-13% // 4.38 // $6.2k
Trey Burton-9% // 4.8 // $5.6k
Marcus Johnson -8% // 4.6 // $5.2k
Jonathan Taylor-8% // 2.63 // $8.8k
Michael Pittman-7% // 4 // $4.4k
Jack Doyle-5% // 2.14 // $1.4k
(Q) Mo Alie-Cox-4% // 1.43 // $4.8k
Jordan Wilkins-2% // .75 // $5.4k
(out) Jack Doyle-5% // 2.14 // $1.4k
Titans ::
A.J. Brown-19% // 8.00 // $10.4
Corey Davis-16% // 7.00 // $7.8k
Jonnu Smith-15% // 4.63 // $7k
Anthony Firkser-12% // 3.88 // $2.2k
Derrick Henry-7% // 2.25 // $10.8k
Kalif Raymond-5% // 1.5 // $1k
Jeremy McNichols-3% // .88 // $200
Geoff Swaim-3% // 2.33 // $200
Cameron Batson-2% // 1 .00 // $200
Q-Adam Humphries-12% // 5.17
Out-MyCole Pruitt-2% // .67
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Derrick Henry-$10.8K
>Henry’s floor and ceiling are lower in this spot against the Colts D who is ranked 3rd in overall defensive DVOA and 2nd in rush defense DVOA. This being said, Henry is almost a lock to touch the ball 20+ times as he has in 6 of 8 games so far this season and has the ability to make any defense look bad.
🚀 High Ceiling
Ryan Tannehill-$11.2k
>A tough matchup but not one Tannehill can’t overcome. Tannehill has his main receivers, Brown and Davis, healthy which was not the case in the first half of the season.
AJ Brown-$10.4k
>After getting hurt Week 1 and missing a couple games, Brown has turned it on. He’s been a TD machine, scoring 6 in his last 5 games while also getting the 100+ yard bonus in 2 and looks ridiculously hard to bring down in the open field.
💰 Leverage Play
Derrick Henry ($16.2k) over Ryan Tannehill $16.8k) in Captain
>I ran 150 lineups in Fantasy Labs using their default settings and Tannehill was put in the Captain 96 times. Surprisingly, Henry wasn’t put in the Captain once so he could go under-owned in the Captain considering his ceiling potential.
💵-Value Play
Jordan Wilkins-$5400
>Wilkins is a value when compared to Jonathan Taylor’s price being $3400 above Wilkins. Wilkins has seen 34 touches the past 2 weeks compared to 21 for Taylor and 12 for Nyheim Hines.
Other Solid Plays
Philip Rivers
>Rivers has been somewhat inconsistent with his fantasy production this year and because of this is priced on the lower side for a QB on a showdown slate. His production has ranged from scoring a low 7.63 pts vs the Browns up to 28.74 pts vs the Bengals.
Saints at Buccaneers, Week 9
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Games Played
Saints::
Alvin Kamara-26% // 9.43 // $11.2
Emmanuel Sanders-14% // 7.2 // $5.8k
TreQuan Smith-13% // 4.57 // $3.4k
Jared Cook-11% // 4.83 // $5.4k
Deonte Harris-7% // 3.17 // $1.2k
Marquez Callaway-7% // 3.4 // $200
Latavius Murray-5% // 1.71 // $2.4k
Josh Hill-3% // 1 // $200
Taysom Hill-3% // 1 // $6k
Michael Thomas-2% // 5 // $9.8k
Adam Trautman-2% // .67 // $200
Bucs ::
Mike Evans-15% // 5.75 // $8.4k
Rob Gronkowski-13% // 5 // $6.4k
Scott Miller-12% // 4.75 // $4.8k
Ronald Jones-10% // 3.88 // $6.6k
Chris Godwin-9% // 7.25 // $7.6k
Leonard Fournette-7% // 3.5 // $6.8k
LeSean McCoy-5% // 2.8 // $200
Cameron Brate-4% // 1.5 // $1.8k
Justin Watson-4% // 1.83 // $200
KeShawn Vaughn-2% // 1.17 // $200
↔️ 🚀 Solid Floor and High Ceiling
Tom Brady $7.4K
>With even more weapons than he had before with Chris Godwin, Brady now leads the Bucs with an additional weapon, Antonio Brown. Brady’s the most expensive player on the slate but with good reason as the Saints are better against run than the pass, a 4-point favorite, and the Saints boast a 4 TD implied point total.
High Ceiling
Mike Evans $8.4k // Chris Godwin $7.6k
>I’m lumping these 2 together as it’s hard to know what one will have a big game. Godwin obviously has a better price considered ceiling being $800 cheaper while Evans has more TD upside but as X pointed out also has a tougher matchup.
Alvin Kamara-$11.2k // Michael Thomas $9.8k
>These 2 both have big ceilings but its hard for me to see them hit together and I also think their floor is a little shaky with Kamara’s high price, Thomas’ 1st game back, and facing the #1 ranked DVOA defense that’s elite against both the run and pass. That being said, the offense will flow through these two.
↩️ Leverage Play
Jared Cook-5.4k
>Cook could be used as a leverage off both Kamara and Thomas if you want to load up on high dollar Bucs plays and hope that Cook’s 2 TD upside pays off. Cook has scored in each of his last 3 games and it’s clear Brees likes to look at him in the redzone.
Antonio Brown-$7.4k
>This definitely isn’t a value play but in Brown’s 1st game with Brady last season, Brown saw 8 targets and Brady connected with him for a TD. That being said, Brown probably won’t play a lot and the Bucs have plenty of other weapons.
Other Solid Plays
Rob Gronkowski-$6.4k, Leonard Fournette-$6.8k, Wil Lutz-$4k (maybe the Saints move the ball but continually stall out against a tough Bucs D), Emmanuel Sanders-5.8k.
Bears at Titans, Week 9
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Over their last 3 games (Texans, Steelers, Bengals) the Titans have given up an average of 31.3 points per games, 2nd worst over that span. This game also ranks 4th in average combined plays. The Bears are currently 6.5 point underdogs with a total that has risen 1 point to 47.5 since opening. This block can be successful if the Bears pass offense can move the ball but is most likely to be successful due to the Bears trailing and being forced to throw. At just $13.4K, this is one of the cheaper blocks we’ve had all year.
Nick Foles ($5.5k) // Darnell Mooney ($3.9k) // Anthony Miller ($4k) = $13.4k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $13.4k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 45.56
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 67
7️⃣ owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6100
Nick Foles (sub 5%)
>The Titans have been better stopping the run than the pass and being underdogs, Foles will be expected to throw. Although he hasn’t posted a big game yet in his 4 starts, the Titans haven’t been playing great D the last few weeks. For Foles to be successful, he needs to avoid sacks and turnovers while getting the ball in his playmaker’s hands.
Darnell Mooney (sub 5%)
>Foles and Mooney connected on a nice deep shot last week. They’ve taken more deep shots this year with the addition of Mooney. Mooney is averaging a healthy 6.4 targets and at just $3900 is a solid value with a decent price considered floor.
Anthony Miller (sub 5%)
>Miller saw his highest target count last week since last season (11). We’ve seen Miller smash a couple times last season, but it has yet to happen this season. If Mooney and Miller can combine for 25-30 points, it should keep this block moving as it likely means Foles is having a good game as well.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The Bears come out playing well (I feel this line is little big) while the Titans slow down Robinson (who’s seen 3 games in a row under 10 targets). Foles is forced to look to Miller who continues his target spike and Foles connects with Mooney on a couple deep shots. The Titans continue their lack of pressure (32nd in adjusted pressure rate mentioned by Hilow) letting Foles operate and find Miller and Mooney.
If the Titans get ahead, the hope would be for them to get ahead big, so the Bears speed up their pace of play. For some reason, it always seems the Bears are really good in garbage time.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Nick Foles ($5.5k) // Darnell Mooney ($3.9k) // Corey Davis ($5.9k) = $15.3k
Ryan Tannehill ($6.3k) // Darnell Mooney ($3.9k) // Jonnu Smith ($3.9k) = $14.1k
Steelers at Cowboys, Week 9
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
This game has the #2 ranked DVOA defense facing an at best 3rd string QB which could be Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush. I would expect a ton of 3 and outs from Dallas with the ball in the Steelers hands the majority of the game. The Steeler’s implied point total currently sits at 27.25 or about 4 TDs.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Ben Roethlisberger ($6.5k) // Michael Gallup ($4k) // Diontae Johnson ($5k) = $15.5k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.5k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.7
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 77.5
7️⃣ %owned or less :: No (Diontae)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,750
Ben Roethlisberger (5-7%)
>Roethlisberger’s price has came down $200 sinces their game against the Browns 3 weeks ago. He’s failed to reach 20 DK pts the last 3 games as well and has the opportunity for a big bounce back spot against a Dallas D giving up the most points in the league per game (33.2).
Michael Gallup (sub 5%)
>Gallup saw 12 targets last week. Ben DiNucci’s main outlet seemed to be Gallup targeting him on quick throws. If the Steelers get up big and are forced to throw, Gallup could see another hefty amount of targets considering he’s only 4k. Hopefully the new QB targets Gallup like DiNucci did.
Diontae Johnson (7-10%)
>Johnson has been a target hog when he’s on the field, we just need him to be able to stay on the field. He’s played had 3 games where he played 50+ snaps and in each one, he’s seen double digit targets (10 // 13 // 15).
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Roethlisberger and Diontae start out hot while Dallas manages a way to stay in the game through the first half. 2 of the 4 implied TDs for the Steelers come through Big Ben and Diontae. As the Cowboy’s get behind, Gallup sees garbage time targets and racks up receptions and yards along the way.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Garrett Gilbert ($4.8k) or Cooper Rush // Michael Gallup ($4k) // Amari Cooper (5.6k) = $14.4k
Ben Roethlisberger ($6.5k) // Michael Gallup ($4k) // Eric Ebron ($4.5k) = $15k
Broncos at Falcons, Week 9
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
This total currently sits at 50 and has risen from 47.5 and the Broncos offense is in a pace up spot facing the Falcons who average 70 plays per game. With the Broncos averaging about 63, this game averages for the 3rd highest plays per game on the slate.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Drew Lock ($5.2k) // Jerry Jeudy ($4.7k) // Noah Fant ($4.6k) = $14.5k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14.5k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.3
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 72.5
7% owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,917
Drew Lock (sub 5%)
>Lock is coming off his best game of the year, leading the Broncos to a 31-30 comeback win over the Chargers. He scored 20+ DK pts and 3 TDs for the first time this season. Now, he gets the arguably the easiest team to throw against giving up the 2nd most yards per game and ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA.
Jerry Jeudy (5-7%)
>Tim Patrick missed last week and is questionable this week but even if he misses, the matchup suits up well. Jeudy saw 10 targets last week with Patrick sidelined and is averaging 6.71 per game on the season.
Noah Fant (5-7%)
> Fant has seen great target volume pretty much all season. The last 4 games he’s played, he’s seen target counts of 9 // 7 // 6 // 10. The Falcons have allowed a whopping 19.1 DK pts per game to the tight end position, most in the league.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The Broncos are currently 4-point underdogs (which I think is a bit too much) and should be trailing based on Vegas lines. This sets up well facing a porous Falcons pass defense and a Broncos offense that seemed to come to life in the 2nd half last week.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Drew Lock ($5.2k) // Jerry Jeudy ($4.7k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k) = $14.4k
Drew Lock ($5.2k) // Noah Fant ($4.6k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k) = $14.3k
Matt Ryan ($6.4k) // Christian Blake ($3k) // Russell Gage ($4.5k)
Matt Ryan ($6.4k) // Christian Blake ($3k) // Hayden Hurst ($4.1)
Giants at WFT, Week 9
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Week 8 Review-✅
We are halfway done with the regular season. Last week, there wasn’t much that stood out in terms of cheaper blocks that ended up paying off because it was such a low scoring week overall.
Only 2 QB priced under $6800 went for 20 + DK points (Drew Lock and Matthew Stafford) while the only WR or TE in these 2 games to go for 20 + was Keenan Allen. And, the only RBs to go for 20 + were thin and in a 3-way timeshare (Hines, Wilkins).
So this week, I wanted to touch on a few observations and thoughts I have had, since we are pretty much half way into the season.
Now that we are so deep into the season, it’s important to stick to your process. It’s fine to make small changes, but I would disagree if someone told me “I’ve always played cash, I’ve been losing, so I’m going to switch it up and throw 150 lineups in this week.” A lot of times we are closer than we realize because being a little bit off, can seem like your way off. But really, it could just be one or two changes in your lineups. The opposite is also true, “if your not 1 or 2 plays from the top, your way off”-Xandamere. But 1 or 2 different players could mean one or two plays from the top.
Instead of making drastic changes, examine why you are losing, and try to make small adjustments to your process. Small changes that I often make at this time of year are maybe picking up an extra slate if I think I can handle it, setting an alarm to make sure my lineups are uploaded by a certain time if I’ve felt pressured before lock, adjusting how your prep time is allocated, or figuring out a strategy to lower variance. If you are down more than expected, lessen the amount your putting in.
If your up, do you want to play more? Think about how much you will be comfortable losing. Will you tilt your face off if you lost every cent and say I could of bought __ instead. What was I thinking? If yes, your playing to much.
I’m no expert so take this or leave it, but I have had a successful season. I play a lot of cash to lessen the variance of gpps and I feel much more confident when I am high on a small amount of people vs wanting a little bit of everyone. I think I can make 1-5 great lineups week in and week out that are better than the majority of what other players are sticking in. I kind of think of my cash play as, “If I’m profitable in cash, I get free shots in gpps at big scores.” And now, because I’m up quite a bit on the season, my goal is to protect what I’ve earned while still getting shots at big scores. I don’t want to give it back so I’m sticking to my process and upping the amount I put in each slate by a small amount. We will see how it goes.
I would encourage everyone to take some time this week to reassess how your season has went. Are you where you expected to be? If your not hitting your goals, reassess, and lower the expectation. If you’ve already hit your goals, make new ones, and protect what you’ve earned. Jot down some thoughts of how you want the 2nd half of the season to go and be thankful we are still getting football!
Time to dig into research and start finding some blocks for Week 9! Keep Grinding OWS!
Packers at 49ers, Week 9
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
Just when I thought the 49ers were getting healthier, they leave the Seahawks game more injured than I could of ever dreamed up. There down Garoppolo, Kittle, Deebo, Mostert, Coleman, and Jeff Wilson. The Packers opened just 3.5 point favorites but has since been bet up to 5.5. They are implied to score just under 4 TDs while the 49ers just over 3.
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game
Packers ::
Davante Adams-23% // 11.6 // $12.4k
Marquez Valdes-Scantling-14% // 5 // $3.4k
*Aaron Jones (Questionable)-11% // 5.6 // $9.8k
Robert Tonyan-11% // 3.86 // $6.4k
*Allen Lazard (on IR still but eligible to be activated)-7% // 5.67 // $7.4k
Jace Sternberger-4% // 1.43 // $1.8k
Tyler Ervin-4% // 1.5 // $200
Out ::
Jamaal Williams-10% // 3.57
49ers ::
Brandon Aiyuk-21% // 6.14 // $8.6k
Kendrick Bourne-19% // 5 // $6.2k
Jerick McKinnon-14% // 3.63 // $8k
Jordan Reed (on IR but could be activated)-8% // 5.33 // $5.8k
Trent Taylor-8% // 2 // $400
Kyle Juszczyk-7% // 1.88 // $1k
Ross Dwelley-4% // 1.13 // $4.8k
Out ::
George Kittle-23% // 8.17
Deebo Samuel-11% // 5.5
Raheem Mostert-6% // 3
Tevin Coleman-2% // 1.33
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Davante Adams-$12.4K
>Davante has seen double digit targets in every game but one and that game he got injured and left the game. However, he’s really expensive, and it’s hard to play him in the captain without punting 2 other positions.
Aaron Rodgers-$11K
>Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Kyler Murray are the QBs that have scored 25+ DK points vs the 49ers. I would definitely put Rodgers in that category vs the other QBs the 49ers have face (Cam, Goff, Wentz, Jones, Darnold) so there’s no reason to think Rodgers can’t get it done here.
Aaron Jones-$9.8k
>If Jones plays and isn’t limited, he should be set for a large workload especially with Jamaal Williams out. When the situation was reversed the last two weeks, with Jones out, Williams played on 87% of snaps. The Packers are large favorites with a banged up offense on the other side and time of possession should be in their favor.
💰 Value Play
Tyler Ervin (especially in Aaron Jones is out)-$200
>It’s possible Ervin gets the lead role if Jones is out. The only other RB the Packers have is Dexter Williams who was on the practice squad. Ervin hasn’t seen much work and would be a punt play if Jones is active.
❓ Plays
The 49ers are are pretty much all question marks to me as of Tuesday. If Reed is active, he could be a good play but is kind of expensive. If he doesn’t, Ross Dwelley would be a solid play at $3.8k. Aiyuk should see some volume but his success depends on the overall success of the 49ers. Hasty saw 12 carries to McKinnon’s 3 but Mckinnon played more snaps and had more targets. If you think McKinnon can stay on the field and the 49ers will trail, he could be a descent play at $8k.
Nick Mullens-$9.2k
>I’m not sure what to think of Mullens. Sometimes he comes in and outplays Jimmy and other times he’s make the same and if not worse mistakes. Pressure definitely affects him and if he avoids costly mistakes, it’s possible Shanahan can put him it position to succeed.
Cowboys at Eagles, Week 8
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
Currently the Eagles are 8.5-point favorites and I want to be all over the them in this one. The Eagles are implied for 25.75 points whereas the Cowboys just 17.25.
🎯 Market Target Share // Targets per Game Played // Salary
Cowboys ::
Amari Cooper – 23% // 10.29 // $8.2k
CeeDee Lamb – 18% // 8 // $6.6k
Ezekiel Elliott – 14% / 6.29 // $10.8k
Dalton Schultz – 13% // 5.71 // $3.6k
Michael Gallup – 12% // 5.14 // $3.4k
Cedrick Wilson – 6% // 2.86 // $400
Tony Pollard – 5% // 2.14 // $1.6k
Noah Brown – 3% // 1.43 // $200
Blake Bell – 3% // 1.14 // $200
Eagles ::
Greg Ward – 14% // 5.71 // $5k
Travis Fulgham – 13% // 9.25 // $9.2k
John Hightower – 8% // 3 // $1.2k
Dallas Goedert – 6% // 6 // $7.8k
Richard Rodgers-6% // 2.57 // $5.6k
Boston Scott – 5% // 2.14 // $8.8k
Jalen Reagor – 3% // 4 // $4.4k
JJ Whiteside – 2% // .83 // $600
Out ::
Zach Ertz – 16% // 7.5- IR
Miles Sanders – 13% // 5
Desean Jackson – 9% // 6.25 IR
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Carson Wentz-$11.8K
>Carson’s been on a roll with 2 straight 30 point games, 2 straight 40+ pass attempt games, and 1 game against the 7th ranked pass DVOA Baltimore Ravens. He has a rushing TD in each of the last 2 (ceiling) and can also take off averaging 35.2 rush yards over his last 5 (floor).
🚀 High Ceiling
Ezekiel Elliott-$10.8k
>It’s hard to put Elliot in the High Floor category when his team has only put up 6 points in the last 2 games and the Cowboy’s are playing their 3rd string QB. The Cowboys have fell behind and Zeke’s touches have also dropped. They should try to lean on Zeke and if he can help lead his team down and fall into the endzone, he has a big ceiling,
Travis Fulgham-9.2k
>With the injuries that have piled up the Eagle’s offense, Fulgham has stepped in and made the most of his ridiculous 29% target share the last 3 weeks. Priced as the highest WR, there’s definitely merit to fading him.
Leverage Play
Tony Pollard-$1.6k
>If you want to fade Zeke betting that the Cowboys fall behind, Tony Pollard could be a good, cheap leverage play. Either way he should get 15-30 snaps and has seen a carry or target on a whopping 54% of his snaps.
Eagles D-$6.2k
>I rarely play defenses in Showdown but the Eagles get the Cowboys offense who has put up 6 points in 2 games and have a 3rd string QB. They’re expensive, but often times in showdown we are left with a salary with not many quality plays below it. If you’re left with a salary in this range, I would feel comfortable rostering them here.
💰 Value Play
Greg Ward-$5k
>Ward has scored a TD in 3 of his last 5 games while also seeing an average of 6.4 targets over that same span. He could be used as a salary saver and as leverage in lineups you don’t play Fulgham.
Michael Gallup-$3.4k
>Gallup has a low floor so he might not be a “value” but he’s just $3400 and it’s a new QB so who knows. Worth a couple GPP shots at his price.
Titans at Bengals, Week 8
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
This block is more expensive than I typically write about but that’s mainly due to Burrow being priced up after last weeks’ 38-point explosion in which he attempted 47 passes for 407 yards, rushed in a TD and had 3 passing TDs. Last weeks opponent, the Browns, rank 2nd in opponent pass attempts. The Titans rank 3rd in this category and this game ranks 2nd in terms of average combined plays while also holding the 2nd highest total on the slate. ✅, ✅, ✅,
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Joe Burrow ($6.2k) // AJ Green ($4.5k) // Corey Davis ($5.1k) = $15.8k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.8k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.98
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73.5
7️⃣ owned or less :: No (Burrow, Green)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,800
Joe Burrow (8-10%)
>Expect another volume spike for Burrow as he faces the Titan’s D that allows the 3rd most pass attempts and is in a game they should be trailing. Burrow has all the pieces to continue to be a favorite DFS play with high volume totals and the ability to rush picking up 34 yards on the ground and getting a QB sneak in the house last week.
AJ Green (sub 8-10%)
>Green continues to see volume and has the yardage to show, giving him a solid floor but he’s only been targeted 3 times in the redzone this season and has failed to convert on any, limiting his ceiling. If Green can get double digit targets and manage a TD, he would pay off his low price and create leverage off the popular combo of Boyd and Higgins.
Corey Davis (sub 5%)
>With defenses now having to focus the majority of their attention on AJ Brown and Derrick Henry, Davis who was banged up for 2 weeks and made his return last week, should be able to start capitalizing. He saw his first double digit target game last week and scored.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
Tannehill and the Titans start hot, but the Bengals match. Corey Davis finds the endzone early and Burrow is forced into another 40 attempt game. AJ Green finally finds the endzone with seeing double digit targets while the majority of the field is either on Higgins or Boyd.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
AJ Green ($4.5k) // Tee Higgins ($5.6k) // Corey Davis ($5.1k) = $15.2k
Other Values not mentioned ::
Gio Bernard $5.8k
Tee Higgins $5.6k
Tyler Boyd $6.6k
49ers at Seahawks, Week 8
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Currently, the highest total on the slate (54) with the 49ers facing the 30th ranked pass DVOA defense and with an injury to their #1 WR (Samuel), there is some value to found. This game will likely be popular so it’s important to find some leverage where we can.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5.4k) // Kendrick Bourne ($3.5k) // Brandon Aiyuk ($5.8k) = $14.7k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $14.7k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 49.98
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 73.5
7️⃣ %owned or less :: No (Aiyuk, Garoppolo)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,833
Jimmy Garoppolo (8-10%)
>Jimmy G looks healthy again and gets his best spot of the year after he missed the Giants, Eagles, got injured vs the Jets, and pulled during the Dolphins (it’s clear now that this was due to him still being injured and has looked much better since).
Kendrick Bourne (sub 5%)
>Deebo Samuel is out and Bourne is cheap. He’s been a reliable target that will be on the field a bunch and one that Jimmy has looked previously for in the redzone.
Brandon Aiyuk (8-10%)
>Aiyuk should see a feature role and is electric with the ball in his hands. Last week he cleared 20 points with no TD and on 6 total touches. I would expect his touch count to be closer to 10 with a couple rushing attempts factored in. I do wish his price was a little bit lower, but he has a big ceiling in this spot.
*Note :: This combination should be low owned as a whole and provides leverage off Wilson and Kittle with freedom to run it back with a Seattle piece.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We need this game to live up to the total and have Garoppolo play sharp. If the 49ers can get up at some point, the game should shoot out. Garoppolo needs to get the hands in the ball of Aiyuk and look for Bourne in the endzone. The offense is improving as the season progresses and this is a potential breakout spot for them.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5.4k) // Carlos Hyde ($5.3k) // Kendrick Bourne ($3.5k) = $14.2k
Raiders at Browns, Week 8
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
This game opened as the highest total on the slate (55) but has fallen all the way to 50.5 with the weather concerns. However, every game that the Raiders AND the Browns have played this season has went over 50 points. The spread currently sits -3 Browns so it should be a competitive game with a potential to shoot out. We should monitor the wind as we get closer to kickoff.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Derek Carr ($5.5k) // Nelson Agholor ($4.7k) // Rashard Higgins ($4.2k) = $14.4k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14.4k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 48.96
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 72
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Higgins)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,933
Derek Carr (5-7%)
>I’m not sure why Carr’s price isn’t a little higher in this spot. It’s came up $300 in the past 3 weeks but within that time frame he has 3 straight games with 20+ DK pts, has faced the #1 and #5 defensive pass DVOA teams (Bucs, Chiefs), has hit the 300 yard bonus twice (once against the Chiefs), and now gets to face the #25 defensive pass DVOA ranked team that is giving up the 2nd most pass attempts per game and 5th most DK pts to the QB position.
Nelson Agholor (5-7%)
>I debated whether to use Ruggs or Agholor in this spot and it’s really a toss-up. Agholor is coming off a 9 target game, has scored in the last 3 games, and always seems to be open deep.
Rashad Higgins (10-15%)
>With Odell going down for the year and Landry continuing to play through injury, Higgins steps into a much bigger roll. Last week he played 44/52 snaps and caught all 6 targets for 110 yards. Although, we worry about Mayfield’s volume, Higgins should see 5-7 targets again.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We are routing for the winds to not be above 20 mph, the game shooting out, and also staying competitive. This is another spot (like the Browns game last week) where turnovers leading to short fields could be a factor (Mayfield has 5 INTs in his last 4 games and Carr has 2 in his last 2). Carrs pass volume spikes while Agholor has another high target game. Mayfield and the Browns fall behind and are forced to through throw. Higgins soaks up the missing target share with Odell out.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Derek Carr ($5.5k // Henry Ruggs ($4.9k) // Rashard Higgins ($4.2k) = $14.6k
Derek Carr ($5.5k) // Rashard Higgins ($4.2k) // Darren Waller ($5.6k) = $15.3k
Baker Mayfield ($6.1k) // Henry Ruggs ($4.9k) // Harrison Bryant ($3.2k) = $14.2k
Rams at Dolphins, Week 8
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Week 7 Review-🤔
Last week, one of my favorite games to build around was the Browns vs Bengals game. It had plenty of value and when Mixon was ruled out, even more! The original 🧱 Team Block 🧱 I broke down was ::
Joe Burrow // Tyler Boyd // AJ Green = 84.6 ($15.2k // 5.57x).
As you can see, this block got home easily and put you on pace for a whopping 278.5 points.
This wasn’t even the best block in the game!
Once Mixon was ruled out, he became a staple value play and his pass catching ability, correlated nice with Burrow and Boyd. Removing Green, we got the 🧱 Team Block 🧱 of ::
Joe Burrow // Tyler Boyd // Gio Bernard = 90 ($15.4k // 5.84x)
This Block put you on pace for 292 points and was seen all over leaderboards including getting 2nd in the Wildcat!
Identifying the proper game environments is the key to finding these blocks. This game had a 50+ point total but was the 4th or 5th highest total on the slate and also had a close line, meaning it had the potential to shootout and was projected to be competitive. The QBs were turnover prone which can create short fields for the opposing offenses.
This has been so much fun! I can’t wait to see what I can dig up this week! OWS is on a roll and the best is yet to come! Stick to YOUR process, learn, and adapt! Smash the👍 button and crash those leaderboards!
Falcons at Panthers, Week 8
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
Vegas opened this line having the Panthers as 3 point favorites but it has moved in the Falcons favor by a point and now stands as the Panthers as 2 point favorites. This is a pace up spot for the Panthers as the Falcons average the 3rd highest plays per game in the league.
🎯 Market Target Share per Game
*Note :: Now that we are later into the season, I’m switching to account for missed games in target share.
Falcons ::
Calvin Ridley-22% // $10.2k
Julio Jones-19% // $9.8k
Russell Gage-15% // $4.2k
Hayden Hurst-14% // $6.4k
Olamide Zaccheaus-8%//$1k
Todd Gurley-7% // $8.4k
Brian Hill-6% // $2.2k
Ito Smith-3% // $800
Brandon Powell-2% // $200
Christian Blake-2% // $200
Keith Smith-2% // $200
Panthers ::
Christian McCaffrey-13% // $11.8k
Robby Anderson-11% // $9.2k
D.J. Moore-11% // $8.2k
Mike Davis-8% // $8.8k
Curtis Samuel-7% // $5.4k
Ian Thomas-2% // $2.6k
Chris Manhertz-1% // $200
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Teddy Bridgewater-$10.6K
> Teddy again in one of the best spots he will be in all year. Last game vs the Falcons, he hit the 300 yard bonus and had 2 TDs. The Falcons rank 31st in DVOA vs the pass while they are actually pretty good against the run. Bridgewater already has plenty of weapons with or without CMC to have an upper 20-point game in this spot. I would put Bridgewater’s floor a little higher than Ryan’s, considering the Panthers being favorites and Bridgewater’s ability to run.
From Lex :: QBs vs ATL are averaging 344.4 yds, 2.7 pass TDs, 0.7 INT.
All seven QBs have hit 300 yd bonus, four QBs have 4 total TDs, all the INT were from CHI QBs & Cousins.
Matt Ryan-$11k
>Although Matt Ryan put up a dud against the Panthers in Week 5, he has Julio back and Vegas thinks this will be a close, 50 point plus game.
Per Lex, it’s safe to say Julio helps Ryan ::
Matt Ryan’s 4 games with Julio & 3 games without: 358 yds, 2.75 TD, 0.3 INT // 249.7 yds, 0.3 TD, 0.25 INT
🚀 High Ceiling
Robby Anderson-$k
>Anderson has scored at least double-digit DK points in every game this season and because of this, his price has gone up, which makes his price considered floor a little shaky. However, he hasn’t scored since week 1 while his counterpart DJ Moore has scored 3 times in the last 3 games. Anderson is due.
Julio Jones-$9.8k
>When Julio is on the field, he averages about the same amount of targets as Ridley and I would put his chances at being the highest scoring player as high as anyone. However, he has the 4th highest price behind the QBs and Ridley.
💰 Value Play
Russell Gage-$4.4k
>Russell Gage is priced $1200 below Carolina’s 3rd receiver, Curtis Samuel, but sees a 12% market share per game vs just 7% for Samuel. They have about the same amount of targets the last 3 games so give me the cheaper guy on a higher volume offense.
Other Solid Plays ::
Todd Gurley-$8.4
Calvin Ridley-$10.2k
Mike Davis-$8.8k
Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 7
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
Division rivals showdown with the 3rd highest point total on the week (54) and Seattle 3 point favorites. This will be one of the most interesting and fun games for me to watch as I route for the Cardinals to take down the division leading Seahawks. GO 49ers! Expect a close back and forth game, especially if the Cardinals can get TDs in their first few drives
🎯 Market Target Share
Seahawks ::
DK Metcalf-23% // $12k
Tyler Lockett-22% // $8.2k
Chris Carson-14% // $9k
Greg Olsen-11% // $4.8k
David Moore-8% // $5.4k
Will Dissly-5% // $1.4k
Freddie Swain-5%% // $800
Travis Homer-2% // $$600
Carlos Hyde-2% // $1.6k
Jacob Hollister-2% // $400
Cardinals ::
DeAndre Hopkins-30% // $10.8k
Larry Fitzgerald-14% // $4.6k
Chase Edmonds-12% // $4k
Christian Kirk-12% // $6.4k
Andy Isabella-7% // $3k
Dan Arnold-6% // $1k
KeeSean Johnson-4% // $200
Kenyan Drake-4% // $7k
Darrell Daniels-3% // $2.4k
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Kyler Murray-$12K
>Murray has yet to score less than 24 DK points on the season. His rushing abilities lock in a solid floor. Murray has scored a rushing TD in every game but one and has 6 on the season. Seattle ranks 29th in pass DVOA so moving the ball through the air shouldn’t be an issue either. Murray has a better matchup then Wilson and is $800 cheaper.
Russell Wilson-$12.8k
>You could argue that Murray has a higher, more stable floor than Wilson but when it comes to ceiling, I give the nod to Wilson. While the Cardinals like to throw short, quick passes, the Seahawks will air it out if needed and having Lockett and Metcalf boosts Wilson’s ceiling every week.
🚀 High Ceiling
DK Metcalf-$10.2k
>Metcalf has at least 90 yards in his last 5 games with 5 TDs in that span. He leads the league by a 2.8 yards in yards per reception (22.5) and I would put his ceiling higher than everyone else but the QBs.
DeAndre Hopkins-10.8k
>Hopkins target count has dropped a bit the last 3 games, failing to reach double digits. That being said, they blew out the Cowboys and Jets in their last 2. Expect some positive target regression against one of the worst teams in the league at defending the pass.
💰 Value Play
Tyler Lockett-$k
>Lockett is a full $2k cheaper than DK Metcalf. Metcalf has seen more targets as of late 11 // 6 // 8 vs Lockett’s 5 // 4 // 1,3 but there’s no reason to think Lockett can’t out produce Metcalf in this spot.
↩️ Leverage Play
Chase Edmonds-$4k
>Edmonds has seen the majority of the RB pass volume out targeting Drake 25 to 8. Although it appears Drake has a firm grasp on the rush share after seeing 20 attempts last week, this is a game the Cardinals should be trailing which should set up for Edmonds to see quite a few targets again.
Chris Carson-$9k
>Chris Carson is a solid play this week and you could use him as leverage off the Seattle WRs with the hopes Carson steals all the TDs away and Seattle jumps out to an early lead while not being forced to throw as much.
49ers at Patriots, Week 7
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
The 49ers make up 4 of the top 5 most expensive players on the showdown slate. Usually this isn’t the case with the 49ers but it goes to show how much of the offense runs through Cam and how volatile the other Patriots pieces are. The line is low (45) and opened Pats 3.5 points favorites but has since crossed key numbers and is sitting at Pats 2.5 showing that the betters have gained confidence in the 49ers after they beat the Rams last week. Expect a slow, low scoring game.
🎯 Market Target Share
49ers ::
George Kittle-18% // $11.4k
Kendrick Bourne-14% // $5.2k
Brandon Aiyuk-12% // $7.4k
Jerick McKinnon-12% // $9.4k
Deebo Samuel-8% // $8.6k
Trent Taylor-6% // $200
Kyle Juszczyk-5% // $800
Out ::
Raheem Mostert-6%
Patriots ::
Julien Edelman-23% // $8.2k
NKeal Harry-19% // $4.8k
Rex Burkhead-17% // $2.2k
Damiere Byrd-13% // $4.2k
James White-13% // $6.8k
Ryan Izzo-7% // $1.8k
+🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Cam Newton-$11K
>Cam Newton is so much a part of this offense because of his involvement in the run that it gives him the highest floor in this game. $11k is the cheapest he’s been on a showdown slate since week 1 when he was $10.6k.
🚀 High Ceiling
Jimmy Garoppolo-$10.2k
>Jimmy and the offense looked good again against a tough division rival (Rams) last week. His floor is shakier this week playing against the Patriots but in a showdown slate, with Shanahan calling plays, and his offensive weapons healthy, Jimmy could be the highest scorer in this game.
George Kittle-$11.4
>George Kittle could be a little risky knowing the Patriots are good at shutting down the opponents best offensive weapon. Kittle is the most expensive player on the slate, but has slate breaking upside as we saw last week going to 7/109/1 TD and 15/183/1 TD against the Eagles.
↩️ Leverage Play
Deebo Samuel $8.4k // Brandon Aiyuk $7.4k
>If the Patriots put their focus on stopping George Kittle, it could open up extra targets and rushes for the 2 main 49ers WRs. You could play either one or both if you think last weeks’ offensive effort will continue against the Patriots.
Other Solid Plays ::
James White-$6.8K
>Should lead the RBs in snap rate and touches. His price would be cheap for a lead back but knowing that Burkhead and Harris will be involved, he’s not a smash play.
Jerick McKinnon-$9.4K
>McKinnon should be in line to carry the majority of the load but I wish he was a little cheaper. Mostert will miss again and when Mostert missed vs the Eagles, McKinnon played 92% of the snaps, carrying 14 times and catching 7.
Packers at Texans, Week 7
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The QBs are too expensive to put in a block format but we can use some of their weapons. This strategy can be effective if you want pieces of the game, but want to play a different QB stack from another game. This block will be especially useful if Aaron Jones misses the game or is limited. The game total is the highest on the slate at 57 and is the only game total above 50 to have gone up throughout the week.
🧱 Game Block 🧱
Jamaal Williams ($4k) // Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4.1k) // Brandin Cooks ($5.2k) = $13.3k
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $13.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 46.55
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 66.5
7️⃣ owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $6,117
Jamaal Williams (sub 7%, much higher if Jones misses)
>Williams will enter a smash spot considering his price if Jones is ruled out. Houston ranks 28th against the run and Williams would also be involved in the pass game as well.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (sub 5%).
>MVS will provide leverage off Davante Adams and if you want to still roster Adams, you could remove Jones hoping the Packers find success through the air with MVS connecting on big shots and Davante helping the Packers move the ball.
Brandin Cooks (sub 5%)
>Cooks has had 2 great games with 21 targets, 2 TDs, and a 300 yard bonus. Price has only came up $200 but he’s in the highest total of the week and also in a spot they should be trailing.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
This is a block that you can approach from 2 different angles. You think either that this game is going to live up to its total and you want to stack this game, so you start from a bottom up approach, locking in 3 lower-priced players, eventually moving up to more expensive pieces.
Or, Aaron Jones misses/is limited, and you want several pieces of this game but are looking to stack elsewhere with a different QB // WR combo.
Either way, we need this game to shootout, and it should. The Texans have put up 66 points after firing Bill O’Brien. If building around other games, but still want exposure to the highest total game on the week, this could be a good way to go.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Will Fuller ($6.8k) // Brandon Cooks ($5.2k) // Jace Sternberger (if Tonyan misses) ($2.5k) = $14.5k
Panthers at Saints, Week 7
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
With the Saints having both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders ruled out, this opens up some value on the Saints side of the ball. Vegas has this total at 51 which is only the 5th highest but the Saints have the 3rd highest implied point total on the week. Vegas expects them to score just over 4 TDs in this game.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Drew Brees ($6.1k) // Tre’Quan Smith ($4k) // Jared Cook ($4.3k)
💵 $14.5k or less :: Yes // $14.4k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 48.96
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 72
7️⃣ owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,933
Drew Brees (sub 5%)
> Brees’ price has fallen from a week 2 high of $6800 to $6100. According to Fantasy Labs’ Trend Tool, Brees scores 3.55 points above expected at home. It may be tougher to move the ball without Thomas and Sanders, but he still has Alvin Kamara, Cook, and Tre’Quan.
Tre’Quan Smith (sub 5%)
> Tre’Quan is a little bit of a boom or bust play as he is typically thought of a home run hitter, however Brees did look to him twice in the RZ week 5. He caught both that game but failed to capitalize on the other 2 RZ looks he’s had this season.
Jared Cook (sub 5%)
>With no Thomas and Sanders, Cook could very well become Brees’ favorite target in this game. Cook saw 3 targets in his last two games played but should get back to his 5-7 range he was seeing earlier this year.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
The Saints should play from in front here but if Carolina can keep it close, it would be better for these pass catchers, for Brees, and for what should be the highest owned play on the slate, Alvin Kamara. Brees throws for all 4 of the implied TDs with 1 to Cook, 1 to Tre’Quan, and the other 2 to Kamara so the DFS world 🌍 doesn’t go crazy!
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Drew Brees ($6.1k) // Marquez Callaway ($3k) // Robby Anderson ($6k) = $15.1k
Teddy Bridgewater ($6.1k) // Marquez Callaway ($3k) // Robby Anderson ($6k) = $15.1k
Lions at Falcons, Week 7
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Currently the 3rd highest total on the week at 55 and sits with the 3rd most combined plays average. With the Falcons being pretty good against the run (12th Rush DVOA) and bad against the pass (30th Pass DVOA), we should see the Lions airing it out.
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Matthew Stafford ($6.5k) // Marvin Jones ($4.4k) // Russell Gage ($4.4k)
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.3k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.02
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 76.5
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5783
Matthew Stafford (5-8%)
>Stafford is in his best spot of the season, facing a Falcons team that leads the league in DK pts allowed to QBs. Being a -3 point underdog with their head coaches’ job on the line, expect the Lions to be aggressive.
Marvin Jones (5-8%)
>Jones has seen shaky target numbers (5 // 2 // 3 // 6 // 8) but with Stafford expected to exceed his normal amount of attempts, Jones should see an uptick.
Russell Gage (sub 5%)
>Gage’s target volume has dropped since the first 2 weeks of the season, but so has his price coming down from a season high of $5100, he’s the cheapest he’s been since week 1. The Lions are going to have to figure out a way to slow down Jones and Ridley which should open up Gage’s opportunity.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
We need a competitive, high scoring game which is what Vegas has this as (55 O/U, 2 pt. spread). Last week, the Falcons managed to beat the Vikings and put up 40 pts while the Lions put up 34 and won against the Jags. This game should remain close throughout and we are hoping for some big plays early to get the pace up. Matthew Stafford has 35+ attempts, with Marvin Jones seeing 6-10 of those. On the other side, Julio and Ridley have middling game outcomes while the target volume Gage saw in the 1st 2 weeks returns to some extent.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
Matt Ryan ($6.7k) // Russell Gage ($4.4k) // Hayden Hurt ($4.4k) = $15.5k
Matthew Stafford ($6.5k) // D’Andre Swift ($5.4k) // Danny Amendola ($3.3k) = $15.2k
Browns at Bengals, Week 7
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
The Bengals and Browns have a few reasons why I may want to attack this game. They combine to average the 2nd highest plays per game this week, the QBs are turnover prone (which can create short fields and more scoring opportunities), this has a decent total sitting at 51 as of Thursday night, and both of these offenses can put up points.
🚨 Update-With Mixon being ruled out, Gio Bernard is a staple value play. At just $4500, I would substitute AJ Green out and put Gio in. This reminds me of the type of value we got 3-4 years ago with a backup RB in a lead role that wasn’t adjusted for his role that week.
Here’s the breakdown for this block ::
Joe Burrow ($5.5k) // Tyler Boyd ($5.4k) // Gio Bernard ($4.5k) = $15.4k
🧱 Team Block 🧱
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.4k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 52.36
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 77
7️⃣ % owned or less :: No (Gio)
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,767
🧱 Team Block 🧱
Joe Burrow ($5.5k) // Tyler Boyd ($5.4k) // AJ Green ($4.3k) = $15.2k
💵 $14.5k or less :: No // $15.2k
↔️ Floor Needed (3.4x) :: 51.68
🎯 Ceiling Target (5x) :: 76
7️⃣ % owned or less :: Yes
💰 Avg Remaining Salary :: $5,800
Joe Burrow (sub 5%)
>Burrow has been fairly consistent this year with his only dud coming against the Ravens which can be expected. 300+ yards in 4 of 6 and due for some positive TD regression as he has zero passing TDs in his last 2 games. Went 316 // 3 TDs vs the Browns week 2 with 61 pass attempts.
Tyler Boyd (sub 5%)
>Has seen consistent volume (unlike the next player) with target counts from 6-9 in every game. Due for positive TD regression as he’s only caught 1 TD pass all year, back in week 2. Higgins and Boyd could be swapped for $100 less.
AJ Green (sub 5%)
>Saw a total of 22 targets weeks 1 and 2, had a bit of a dip, and was back up to 11 last week. I’m assuming his hamstring was holding him back but also realize that Green is getting older and doesn’t have the ceiling or floor he once used to.
🏈 Game Flow Needed 🏈
It’s really hard to imagine a game script in this one that doesn’t give us a what we need to be successful. If the Bengals fall behind, they will throw. If they are ahead, the offense has probably been pretty good which is good for Burrow and his pass catchers. The most obvious situation that would hold this block back would be AJ Green and his volume. Hopefully his hamstring injury has fully healed, which is believable coming off a an 11 target game last week.
🧱 Alternate Blocks 🧱
*Note-Really like stacking Burrow // Boyd // Higgins as an under-owned trio but it’s just a little too expensive for this bottom up approach because there’s plenty of guys I could stomach rostering for less than those 3 in this game.
*Note2-There’s a lot of value in this game so these are just a couple that came across my mind but plenty of others for you to come up with.
Joe Burrow ($5.5k) // Tee Higgins ($5.3k) // AJ Green ($4.3k) = $15.2
Baker Mayfield ($5.6k) // Jarvis Landy ($4.6k) // Austin Hooper ($4k) = $14.2k
*Austin Hooper has been ruled out. David Njoku could be an interesting option at just $3k
Giants at Eagles, Week 7
📝 Showdown Cheat Sheet 📝
Eagles are 4.5 pts favorites in this one. This division is still wide open with none of the 4 teams out of it, but this week is a big one as all 4 teams play within the division. Wentz played better (no turnovers) against a tough Steelers D and I expect the Eagles offense to perform better as the season goes along.
🎯 Market Target Share
Giants ::
Darius Slayton-22% // $9.2k
Evan Engram-17% // $8k
Golden Tate-12% // $6.6k
Dion Lewis-8% // $1.6k
Kaden Smith-6% // $2kDevonta Freeman-4% // $7.4k
Wayne Gallman-3% // $800
Out ::
C.J. Board-5%
Eagles ::
Greg Ward-14% // $4.8k
Travis Fulgham-11% // $8.8k
DeSean Jackson-8% // $5.8k DJax’ back!
Dallas Goedert-8% // $7.8k // Eligible to return from IR
John Hightower-8% // $1.2k
Boston Scott-4% // $8.4k
Richard Rodgers-4% // $5k
Corey Clement-2% // $5.2k
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside-2% // $2.4k
Dontae Burnett-2% // $200
Out ::
Zach Ertz-19%
Miles Sanders-11%
Dallas Goedert-8% // $7.8k // Eligible to return from IR
*Note-Lane Johnson is expected to play. He’s been dealing with an ankle injury, having to miss part of the games in wk 4 and 5. If he’s healthy, it would be a big boost to the offense.
🚀 High Floor and Ceiling
Carson Wentz-$10.8K
>Since Week 2, Wentz has faced Pittsburgh and Baltimore who rank 8th and 7th pass DVOA. Wentz managed to put up 19 and 30 DK pts in those spots. He’s been a turnover machine but had 0 last week against a tough Ravens D. Wentz’ floor is solid, averaging 40.5 rush yards/game and has a rush TD in 4 of the last 5 games.
🚀 High Ceiling
DeSean Jackson-$5.8k
>Back from injury, we know the Eagles will take a few shots with DJax if he’s healthy.
Travis Fulgham-$8.8k
>TD in every game played (3), double digit targets in last 2, and increasing snaps each of the last 3 weeks. DeSean Jackson is back but Ertz is out who took up a 19% target share on the year.
💰 Value Play
Richard Rogers-$5k
>With Ertz out and Goedert, Rogers will see more time and opportunity.
5-50 wouldn’t be a bad line at this price but 5-50 with a TD would look a lot better. Not sure he’s much of a value but I didn’t see much else that stuck out here, to be honest.
↩️ Leverage Play
Captain Daniel Jones $15.6k
>I’m not real sure where to put Daniel Jones. He rushes a lot but his floor is still so low with 2 sub 10 pt games and his ceiling is low with a high game this year of 14 pts. That said, he did blow up for four 30 pt games last year and is an interesting GPP play in the Captain with only 1 pass catcher to be a little different. This assuming he can utilize his rushing once again and support a pass catcher like Slayton or Engram.
Other Solid Plays ::
Devonta Freeman-$11.1K // Boston Scott $8.4
>Seeing the majority of the opportunity, Freeman has see increased carries since he got joined the Giants. With Sanders out, Boston Scott should see the majority of the work here but will split time with Corey Clement. Any running back seeing the majority of carries and snaps on a one game slate is usually a good play, unless massively overpriced.
Cowboys at WFT, Week 7
🧱 Building Blocks 🧱
Week 6 Review-🤔 💡
Last week I touched on the Big Ben // Claypool block and how you could of rostered any other player $3700 and below and still scored at least 5x in the block. And what do you know, after I mention how a block can have a 0 and still hit, it happened to a block I wrote about last week. Not quite as high scoring but….
Kirk Cousins // Olamide Zaccheaus // Justin Jefferson=72.32 pts (4.72x)
This 🧱 Game Block 🧱 had a 0 and still scored 4.72x, putting the lineup on pace for 236 pts. As I mentioned last week, we obviously don’t want to be taking zeros and you probably didn’t play this block after we found out Julio was active, but this goes to show you the power 💪 of the block.
I also had another block hit last week that I wrote about (no zero!).
Carson Wentz // Travis Fulgham // Greg Ward = 55.8 pts (3.95x)
Another reason to start lineups by building blocks, is that they make it easier to fill in the rest of your lineup.
Once a block is found that can potentially pay off, there’s only 6 roster spots left to fill in with more average remaining salary than what was started with.
So how do we find these cheap blocks that can pay off? This is obviously the tough part.
What I have noticed when beginning my research for the week is that, most likely, the best value is going appear to be from the highest total games, and more specifically, the underdogs. This can be a good place to start looking as the studs are priced up and high owned while the lower priced players might not be priced up at all and likely low-owned, but still in the same game environment.
Lower total games usually aren’t going to be able to support 3 lower priced plays.
Other great plays are going to come from games that have middling totals, stay competitive, and end up shooting out. A question I might ask myself would be “If I remove the highest 3 or 4 game totals (and typically the most popular games to build around), what is my next favorite game to build around?”
After that, we should think of all the other things we think of on a regular basis. Will they be on the field a lot? Are they going to see an increase in opportunity due to an injury? Does this player get schemed opportunities? etc., etc.
That’s all I have for review this week! Time to start researching blocks for Week 7! This week I have blocks in the CLE @ CIN, DET @ ATL, CAR @ NO, and GB @ Hou games. I also did A Showdown Cheat Sheet for the SF @ NE game and will be adding the island games as well.